In October 2014, IBGE carried out the first projection of the area and production for the 2015harvest. The production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds in 2015 was estimated at 198.3 million metric tons, 2.5% higher than the total crop harvested in 2014.

The tenth estimate of the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds added up to 193.5 million metric tons, 2.8% higher than that obtained in 2013 (188.2 million metric tons) and 16,050 metric tons bigger when compared with the survey in September 2014. The estimated area to be harvested was 56.2 million hectares and represented an increase of 6.3% over the harvested area in 2013 (52.8 million hectares) and of 0.4% over the previous month. Rice, corn and soybeans were the three main products in this group, which altogether represented 91.4% of the production estimate and accounted for 85.0% of the area to be harvested. In relation to the previous year, the area for rice increased 660 hectares and the area for soybeans, 8.3%. Corn had its area reduced by 0.7%. Comparing with 2013, the production increased 3.4% for rice and 5.6% for soybeans, and decreased 2.7% for corn. The complete publication of the survey can be accessed at www.ibge.gov.br/english/estatistica/indicadores/agropecuaria/lspa.

Among the Major Regions, the volume of production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds showed the following distribution: Central-West, 82.1 million metric tons; South, 72.3 million metric tons; Southeast, 17.8 million metric tons; Northeast, 15.8 million metric tons and North, 5.5 million metric tons. The comparison with the last harvest registered increases of 10.0% in the North Region, 32.2% in the Northeast and 4.7% in the Central-West. The South and Southeast Regions recorded, respectively, a decrease of 1.1% and of 9.8% over the production last year. In the 2014 survey, Mato Grosso led the national production of grains with a contribution of 24.4%, followed by Paraná (18.5%) and Rio Grande do Sul (15.6%). These states together accounted for 58.5% of the national forecast.

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Estimate of October over September

In the estimate of October in relation to September, the highlights were the changing estimates in the production of coffea canephora (4.0%), sorghum (3.2%), upland cotton (1.8%), coffea arabica (-0.5%), beans- 3rd crop (-2.4%), beans - 1st crop (-2.6%), beans - 2nd crop (-4.5%), wheat (-5.2%) and sugarcane (-7.1%).

UPLAND COTTON – Despite the climate adversities faced by the main producers of cotton in Brazil, Mato Grosso and Bahia, the end of the harvest in October showed that the production had not been affected. By reducing 0.1% against the previous month, the average yield reached 3,729 kg/hectare, leading to the estimated production of 4.2 million metric tons.

COFFEE GRAIN - The production of coffee in Brazil in 2014 reached 2.7 million metric tons or 45.5 million 60 kg sacks. By increasing 4.0%, the production of canephora stood out, mainly due to the estimated harvest in Bahia, which was revised to an increase of 40.7% in relation to the previous month. Acre and Rondônia also registered increases of 55.5% and 0.6% in the production, respectively, whereas Ceará and Minas Gerais recorded declines of 12.5% and 0.8%, respectively. As the main producer with a participation of 74.5% in the overall production of canephora, Espírito Santo adjusted its production in October by 0.8%, after posting an increase of 0.6% in the average yield and of 0.1% in the harvested area.

The 2014 harvest of coffea arabica was negatively influenced by extremely low prices during the farming and fertilization phases, discouraging investments, as well as by the dry and hot weather in the producing areas, mainly in the beginning of the year. As a whole, Brazil produced 1.9 million metric tons of this type of coffee, or 32.1 million 60 kg sacks.

SUGARCANE - São Paulo, the main producer of sugarcane with 51.5% of the national production, reported that the yield dropped 11.5%, from 80,200 kg/ha to 71,000 kg/ha, due to the worst drought in recent years. As a result, the production in the state was revised to 358.3 million metric tons. At national level, the drought impacted the average yield: 6.5% below that in the previous month, bringing the value to 70,157 kg/ha. Having assessed the effects of the drought in the producing areas, the production fell 53.1 million metric tons in October in relation to the previous month, reaching 695,944,271 metric tons.

TOTAL BEAN SEED - The estimated planted area with bean increased 1.1% in October 2014 over September. The production changed negatively (3.4%), following the average yield, which also decreased (3.5%). The biggest producers in this survey were Paraná (25.5%), Minas Gerais (17.6%) and Bahia, with a participation of 7.6% in the national production.

BEAN SEED - 1st crop - The first national harvest of beans was estimated at 1,429,185 metric tons, representing a drop of 2.6% over the September´s estimate. The planted area increased 0.3% and the average yield decreased 2.7%. In the October´s estimate, the biggest producers of this crop were Paraná (29.5%), Minas Gerais (14.1%) and Goiás (9.3%).

BEAN SEED - 2nd crop - According to the October estimate, the overall production of beans - 2nd crop added up to 1,377,525 metric tons, 4.5% lower than the September´s estimate. The planted area of 1,328,937 hectares was 2.5% bigger than the last estimate.

Paraná and Mato Grosso, the two biggest producers, repeated the September data.

BEAN SEED - 3rd crop - The estimated average yield decreased 1.6%, the area to be harvested fell 0.9% and the expected production decreased 2.4%, standing at 450,594 metric tons.

TOTAL SORGHUM GRAIN - The production of sorghum in Brazil increased 3.2% against the previous month and reached 1.9 million metric tons in 2014, as a result of the increase of 4.3% in the harvested area, since the average yield declined 1.1%. With an overall participation of 43.9%, Goiás, the biggest Brazilian producer, increased its production by 9.1% as a result of the increase of 9.9% in the harvested area, despite the reduction of 0.7% in the average yield.

WHEAT GRAIN - The estimated production in October for the 2014 harvest was 7,467,880 metric tons, with an expected average yield of 2,698 kg/ha, respectively 5.2% and 6.7% lower than the data from the previous month. On its turn, the planted area of 2,768,439 hectares was 1.6% larger. Responsible for 93.7% of the national production, the South Region expected a production of 6,998,528 metric tons, with an expected average yield of 2,670 kg/ha, respectively 6.8% and 7.4% lower than the data reported in the previous month.

Estimate of October in relation to 2013

Among the 26 main products, 16 recorded a positive percentage change in the estimated production in relation to the previous year: upland cottonseed (24.8%), peanuts in the shell – 2nd crop (39.6%), paddy rice (3.4%), potatoes - 3rd crop (31.4%), cacao nuts (9.7%), coffee beans (canephora) (23.7%), onions (6.9%), barley grain (3.8%), bean seed - 1st crop (31.0%), bean seed - 2nd crop (4.0%), oranges (3.2%), castor beans (217.2%), cassava (10.1%), corn grain  - 2nd crop (2.8%), soybean grain (5.6%) and wheat grain (30.6%). Ten products posted a negative change: peanuts in the shell - 1st crop (14.3%), oat grain (1.9%), potatoes - 1st crop (0.8%), potatoes - 2nd crop (6.3%), coffee beans (arabica) (15.2%), sugarcane (5.9%), bean seed - 3rd crop (13.5%), corn grain - 1st crop (10.0%), sorghum grain (7.8%) and triticale grain (2.3%).

In absolute numbers, the most significant increases in the production - above 1.0 million metric tons - compared with the 2013 harvest were: soybeans (4,581,310 t), cassava (2,138,622 t), wheat (1,750,077 t) and corn grain - 2nd crop (1,282,742 t). Also in absolute numbers, the highest negative changes in the annual comparison were sugarcane (-43,322,771 t) and corn grain - 1st crop (-3,431,188 t).

Perspectives for 2015 harvest

In October 2014, IBGE carried out the first projection of the area and production for the 2015 harvest. The figures estimated in the surveyed regions and states were added to the estimates based on the information obtained for the Federation Units in previous years, in the case of Federation Units with no initial data yet. Field information accounted for 61.9% of the estimated national production, while the estimates accounted for 38.1% of the total estimated in October.

Among the six more important products to the next summer harvest, five registered positive changes in the production: beans - 1st crop (11.0%), peanuts in the shell - 1st crop (10.7%), soybeans (9.0%), paddy rice (1.4%) and corn - 1st crop (0.3%). Only upland cotton recorded a negative change in the production (-8.0%).

Concerning the estimated area, the following products posted a positive change: beans - 1st crop (5.5%), soybeans (1.6%), peanuts in the shell- 1st crop (0.4%) and rice (0.7%); the following posted a negative change:  upland cotton (-7.8%) and corn (-0.2%).

In this first projection, the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds for 2015 was estimated at 198.3 million metric tons, 2.5% higher than the total crop harvested in 2014. This increase was due to the higher forecast in the Northeast (+16.1%), Southeast (+7.9%) and South Region (+5.3%), as a result of the increase of 9.0% in the estimated production of soybeans. It reflected the increases of 1.5% in the planted area and of 7.2% in the expected average yield, making up more 7.7 million metric tons than the 2014 harvest.

UPLAND COTTON SEED - The international market of cotton still reflected the falling prices reported in the last four harvests, mainly due to the incentives offered by China, as it was pursuing the increase of the internal production rather than importing. The planted area was expected to reduce, due to a combination of low prices, high costs and good prices for soybeans, a competitor commodity. 1.1 million hectares of cotton was expected in the 2015 harvest, a reduction of 7.9% against 2014. The national production was reduced by 8.0% compared with the 2014 harvest, making up an estimated production of 3.9 million metric tons. By possibly planting 41,570 hectares less than in 2014, which represented a reduction of 12.2%, Bahia was the main responsible for the contraction in the estimated area, making up a total estimated area of 300 thousand hectares.

PADDY RICE - The first forecast for the 2015 harvest was a production of 12,333,403 metric tons in a planted area of 2,368,894 hectares and with an expected average yield of 5,211 kg/ha, 1.4%, 0.5% and 0.7% higher, respectively, when compared with those from the previous harvest. According to the first estimates, Rio Grande do Sul, the biggest producer, should contribute with about 69.9% of the production of this cereal.

BEAN SEED - 1st crop - The first estimate for the area to be planted was 1,797,343 hectares, 2.9% lower than in 2014, reflecting the low prices paid to the producers in the previous harvests. The area to be harvested was expected to grow 5.5%, since a number of crops in the Northeast Region were affected by droughts in 2014. The average yield was expected to rise 5.2%, provided that the climate conditions favor the development of this crop. The estimated production of beans - 1st crop for 2015 was 1,586,386 metric tons, 11.0% higher than in the 2014 harvest. This growth should partly offset the production loss that took place in 2014. Paraná was the biggest producer in this harvest, with 23.2% of the national production.

CORN - 1st crop - The low prices practiced during the 2014 harvest and their likely maintenance during the 2015 harvest should retract the estimated planted area by 4.4%, making up 6.1 million hectares. However, the increase in the estimated average yield by 0.5% might lead to a rise of 0.3% in the production, making up 30.8 million metric tons over 2014.

The highlights in terms of production were Minas Gerais (6.2 million metric tons); Rio Grande do Sul (5.4 million metric tons); and Paraná (4.6 million metric tons).

SOYBEAN GRAIN - Despite the slight retraction in the soybean prices compared with the previous harvest, the prices were still attractive and led to an increase of 1.5% in the planted area, making up 30.7 million hectares. The production was expected to rise 9.0%, representing 94.0 million metric tons, mainly due to the increased estimate of the average yield to 3,065 kg/ha or 7.2% more than in the previous harvest. This first forecast expected that Mato Grosso remained as the main national producer, followed by the states of Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul, producing 26.8 million, 17.4 million and 14.4 million metric tons, respectively.

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) is a monthly survey to forecast and monitor the harvest of the main agricultural products, whose information is obtained by means of the Municipal Commissions (COMEA) and/or Regional Commissions (COREA). The latter are consolidated in state level by the Agriculture Statistics Coordinating Groups (GCEA) and, later, evaluated at national level, by the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics (CEPAGRO). This Commission is formed by representatives from IBGE and from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA).

Due to users’ needs of harvest data, the surveys relative to Cereals, Legumes and Oilseeds (cotton seed, peanut, rice, beans, castor beans, corn, soybean, oat, rye, barley, sunflower, sorghum, wheat and triticale) have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency of the Ministry of Agriculture (CONAB), a subdivision of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). That initiative is the result of a process (started in October 2007) of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops.