Contributing to the overall industrial activity rate of -0.2% between August and September, 15 sectors down and 12 up were observed.

Among those with negative results, the main sectors were: other chemical products (-4.0%), electronic material and communication equipment (-11.0%), food (-1.7%), primary metallurgy (-2.0%), motor vehicles (-0.9%) and petroleum refinement and alcohol production (-1.5%). As for the positive activities, the best performances were edition and printing (15.5%), pharmaceutical (6.3%), mining and quarrying industries (2.5%) and beverages (4.0%).

Still comparing with the previous month, in the indexes by categories of use, only the sector of semi and non-durable consumer goods (1.3%) registered a positive result, eliminating the reduction of 0.8% observed in August. The remaining categories of use recorded negative rates, notably capital goods with a drop of 2.6%, after null growth in July and August. The manufacturing sectors of durable consumer goods (-1.3%) and intermediate goods (-0.5%) recorded a fall in the second consecutive month, accumulating losses of 1.4% and 2.0%, respectively, in this period.

In the evolution of the quarterly moving average index, the total of industry registered a slight positive change (0.1%) between August and September, interrupting three consecutive months of negative rates in that type of comparison, when it accumulated a contraction of 1.3%. Among the categories of use, the sector of semi and non-durable consumer goods (0.3%) registered the only positive rate between August and September, reverting four consecutive months down. The remaining results were negative: durable consumer goods (-0.1%), intermediate goods (-0.4%) and capital goods (-0.9%).

Industrial output advances 6.3% in comparison with September of 2009

In relation to September of 2009, the industrial output advanced 6.3%, completing 11 consecutive months of positive rates in that type of comparison. The results were positive in 22 of the 27 surveyed sectors, with the highest impact on the overall index from motor vehicles (19.8%), followed by machines and equipment (13.1%), edition and printing (17.6%), quarrying and mining industries (13.5%) and food (5.8%). In these sectors, the main contributors to the positive performance were, respectively: tractor trucks, trucks, vehicles for transportation of goods and automobiles; wheel loaders, motor graders, forklift trucks and harvester machines; books of any gender; iron ores; and crystallized sugar and concentrated orange juice. Among the five activities that registered reduction in production, electronic material and communication equipment (-16.9%) and other chemical products (-3.2%) were the most relevant influences on the industry average. They were mainly pressured by the contraction in manufacturing of cell phone and telephone switching apparatus in the first sector, and herbicides for agriculture use in the second one.

Among the categories of use, the results remained positive in relation to September of last year, with the category of capital goods (15.9%) pointing to a growth quite above the total of industry (6.3%).

The categories of intermediate goods (5.9%) and semi- and non-durable consumer goods (5.8%) registered rates near the overall average, while durable consumer goods (-0.2%) was the only category to register a negative result. In the first sector, the positive highlights were capital goods for transportation equipment (28.1%), capital goods for construction (78.5%), for industrial (22.7%) and agricultural purposes (33.6%). The subsectors of capital goods for mixed use (-2.6%) and for electric energy (-0.6%) negatively pressured the total of the category of use. 

Intermediate goods and semi- and non-durable consumer goods kept the upward trend started in November of 2009. In the first sector, the advance was mainly due to the items related to quarrying and mining (13.6%), motor vehicles (20.7%), food (13.9%), non-metallic minerals (8.6%) and primary metallurgy (3.8%), while petroleum refinement and alcohol production (-7.3%) and other chemical products (-3.2%) exerted negative pressures. It is worth highlighting the positive performances of producer goods for civil construction (8.9%) and packaging (8.3%). In the sector of semi- and non- durable consumer goods, all the subsectors contributed positively. The highlights were other non-durable (7.5%), food and beverages for domestic consumption (4.2%), fuel (9.4%) and semi-durable (2.9%), propelled by a higher production of books and medicines; soft drink, concentrated orange juice, beer and draft beer; alcohol and gasoline; and pants and leather sneakers.

The production of durable consumer goods (-0.2%), which interrupted an eleven-consecutive-month expansion in production, was negatively influenced by the contraction in cell phones (-17.1%) and appliances (-9.9%), both "white line" (-10.5%) and "brown line" (-5.5%). Conversely, automobiles (5.3%), motorcycles (14.6%) and furniture (13.6%) continued registering positive results in that type of comparison.

Industrial output decreases the pace of growth in the third quarter

In the quarterly analysis, the industrial sector has registered positive results since the last quarter of last year (5.9%). In the third quarter of 2010, the advance of 7.9% pointed to a reduction in the pace of growth because the expansion was of 16.2% in the first semester of the year (18.2% in the first quarter and 14.3% in the second), all comparisons against the same period of the previous year. This movement was followed by all the categories of use and by 21 of the 27 surveyed sectors, which reflected not only the more moderate behavior of the industrial activity in the last months but also the rise in the base of comparison – the second semester of 2009 registered a more intense pace than the first one. Among the categories of use, the reduction in the pace of growth was particularly relevant for durable consumer goods, from 20.6% in the first semester of the year to 2.4% in the third quarter, followed by intermediate goods (from 17.4% to 8.6%), capital goods (from 29.6% to 21.2%) and semi- and non-durable consumer goods (from 7.6% to 4.5%).

The accumulated index for the nine months of the year, compared with the same period of 2009, expanded 13.1% for the total industry, with a widespread growth profile, reaching 25 of the 27 sectors and around 76% of the surveyed products. The activity of motor vehicles (29.4%) continued registering the most significant positive impact on the overall average, influenced by the expansion in 92% of the surveyed products in the sector. It was followed by machines and equipment (32.1%), primary metallurgy (23.9%), metal products (28.6%), other chemical products (11.9%), quarrying and mining industries (14.6%) and food (6.2%). In terms of products, the highlights in these sectors were: automobiles, tractor trucks and trucks; wheel loaders, refrigerator compressors, motor graders and microwave ovens; carbon steel and special steel ingots, blocks, rods, other steel alloy bars and carbon steel rebars; capital goods parts and pieces; oxygen, herbicides for agriculture use and paint and varnish for construction; iron ores; and crystallized sugar and concentrated orange juice. Conversely, the two sectors with negative contributions to the overall index were: other transportation equipment (-3.4%) and tobacco (-9.8%).

The indexes by category of use, still in the accumulated indicator of the nine months of the year, confirmed the widespread growth in the industrial sector, registering expansion in all four categories.

The sector of capital goods (26.5%) continued with the highest rate, followed by intermediate goods (14.2%) and durable consumer goods (13.6%), all with an expansion above the national average (13.1%). The production of semi- and non-durable consumer goods, with an increase of 6.5%, registered the most moderate growth among the categories of use.

In September of 2010, the industrial output changed -0.2% compared with the previous month, in the seasonally adjusted series, repeating the result of August.

In relation to September of last year, there was an advance of 6.3%, the lowest rate since the one of 5.3% registered in November of 2009, and 13.1% in the accumulated index of the nine months of the year. At the end of the third quarter of 2010, the industrial sector grew in relation to the same period of the previous year (7.9%), but it was negative compared with the immediately previous quarter (-0.5%) in the seasonally adjusted series. The rate accumulated in the last 12 months kept the upward trend, changing from 9.8% in August to 11.2% in September, the highest result since the beginning of the time series.

In sum, the industrial activity has showed a stable scenario in the last three months, since, after the addition of 0.5% in July, the industrial output recorded the second consecutive month of negative change (-0.2%) in the comparison with the previous month. Thus, the quarterly moving average index remained virtually stable between August and September (0.1%). Still regarding the seasonally adjusted series, in the quarter-over-quarter index, the industrial output contracted 0.5% in the third quarter of the year and interrupted five consecutive periods of expansion, when it accumulated a gain of 18.7%. Among the categories of use, all recorded negative rates in the July-September period, with capital goods, from 4.7% in quarter 2 of 2010 to –2.2% in quarter 3, registering the most intensive deceleration between both periods. In the remaining sectors, intermediate goods (from 1.1% to -1.0%) recorded its first negative result since the first quarter of 2009, whereas durable consumer goods (from –1.0% to –1.9%) and semi- and non-durable consumer goods (from –0.6% to –0.7%) registered the second negative consecutive rate.

In comparisons with the same periods of 2009, the results remained predominantly positive and reached most of the industrial surveyed sectors. However, they displayed an evident reduction in the pace of growth against the indexes of the previous months, reflecting not only the increase in the base of comparison, but also the reduction in the productive pace observed in the last months. As a result, the quarter-over-quarter index of the previous year showed a reduction in expansion from the first (18.2%) to the second (14.3%) and third quarters of 2010 (7.9%).