The ninth estimate of the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds for 2014 accounted for 193.5 million tonnes[1], 2.8% higher than that of 2013 (188.2 million tonnes) and 84,720 tonnes below August's survey in 2014.
The estimate of the area to be harvested in 2014 (of 56.0 million hectares) grew 5.9% over 2013 (52.8 million hectares) and shrank 0.5% in relation to August's projection. Together, rice, corn and soybeans represent 91.2% of the output estimate and 85.1% of the area to be harvested. In relation to 2013, there were increases in the area to be harvest for rice (0.2%) and soybeans (8.2%), and a reduction of 1.2% in corn's area. Concerning production, the increases were of 3.5% for rice and of 5.5% for soybeans, whereas corn's area decreased 3.1%. The complete publication can be accessed at www.ibge.gov.br/english/estatistica/indicadores/agropecuaria/lspa.

Among the Major Regions, the volume of production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds presented the following distribution: Central-West Region, 81.8 million tonnes; South, 72.8 million tonnes; Southeast, 17.3 million tonnes; Northeast, 16.1 million tonnes; and North, 5.4 million tonnes. Compared with the past harvest, increases are recorded for North, 9.2%, Northeast, 34.9% and Central-West Regions, 4.3%. South and Southeast presented, respectively, drops of 0.3% and 12.5% in relation to 2013. According to this estimate for 2014, Mato Grosso leads the national production of cereals with a contribution of 24.4%, followed by Paraná (18.6%) and Rio Grande do Sul (15.8%). The three states together represented 58.8% of the estimated national overall.

In the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production of September in relation to August, the highlights were the changes in the production of: corn 2nd crop (1.4%), potatoes 3rd crop (1.2%), soybeans (-0.5%), potatoes 2nd crop (-1.5%), beans - 1st crop (-1.5%), oat
(-1.8%), coffea arabica (-2.0%) and upland cotton (-2.5%).

UPLAND COTTON SEEDS – Mato Grosso and Bahia, which account for 85.2% of the national crop, faced heavy rainfalls in January, which harmed the 2nd crop of cotton and now result in harvest delay. Fallowing (to control boll weevil, the main cotton pest) in Mato Grosso, which traditionally starts on November 15, was postponed until October 1 and will last up to November 30.

POTATOES - 2ND CROP – The lower production estimate reflects a decrease of 1.0% in the planted area and of 0.5% in the average yield. This result was influenced by the forecasts of Minas Gerais and Paraná, biggest producers of these crops, reducing the planted area to 0.4% and 2.5% and the estimates production to 0.2% and 3.9%, respectively.

POTATOES - 3RD CROP - The rise in the production estimate reflects an increase of 1.1% in the planted area and of 0.1% in the average yield. In Minas Gerais, the estimated production increased, following the planted areas and the average yield which rose, respectively, 2.2% and 0.4% in relation to August. In Goiás, the planted area rose 0.8%, whereas the expected average yield fell 0.2% in relation to August.

COFFEA ARABICA (beans) - The harvested area and the average yield fell 1.0%. The production estimates were revised down, mainly in Ceará (-29.3%), Goiás (-27.1%) and Bahia (-1.8%). The most influential state for the monthly results is Minas Gerais, with a 2.3% drop (31.120 tonnes less) in the crop estimate.

BEAN GRAINS 1ST CROP – The reduction in the production is mostly due to the revisions in Pernambuco and Ceará, with a reduction of the average yield to 16.5% and 5.6%. This negative revision was due to the drought that stroke the area.

CORN GRAINS - 2ND CROP - As the harvest finished in Mato Grosso, main producer, there was a higher expectation for production, leveraged by the increase of 2.7% in the expected average yield, making production reach 14,650,159 tonnes. In Paraná, the second main producer, there was also a 1.0% rise in the expected average yield, taking production to 10,350,777 tonnes.

SOYBEAN GRAINS - There was a reduction in the production estimate, with drops of 0.3% in the harvested area and of 0.2% in the average yield. The production in the Northeast Region fell 10.4% in relation to August, influenced by Bahia, where the information was revised down to 3.3 million tonnes due to the unfavorable weather. Thus, from August to September, there was a reduction of 19.2% in the expected production, pushed by the drops of 9.6% in the planted and harvested area, and of 10.6% in the average yield.

September's estimate for 2014 in relation to 2013's production

Among the 26 main products, nineteen registered highs in the production estimate, in relation to the previous year: upland cottonseed (22.6%), paddy rice (3.5%), oat grain (3.0%), potatoes - 1st crop (7.2%), potatoes - 3rd crop (4.6%), cacao nuts (3.3%), coffee beans - canephora (18.9%),  sugarcane (1.3%), onions (6.7%), barley grain (4.5%), bean seed - 1st crop (34.5%), bean seed - 2nd crop (8.8%), oranges (0.9%), castor beans (170.4%), cassava (9.9%), corn grain 2nd crop (2.4%), soybean grain (5.5%), wheat grain (37.8%) and triticale grain (0.0%). There were seven products with a negative change: peanuts in the shell - 1st crop (20.0%), potatoes 2nd crop (0.4%), peanuts in the shell – 2nd crop (17.5%), coffee beans - arabica (14.8%), bean seeds - 3rd crop (11.3%), corn grain 1st crop (10.5%) and sorghum grain (10.7%).

The most significant highs, above 2.0 million tonnes, were seen in: sugarcane (9,779,082 t), soybeans (4,505,070 t), wheat (2,162,647 t) and cassava (2,098,616 t). On the other hand, the highest negative change, in absolute numbers, came from corn grain 1st crop (-3,602,430 t).

COFFEE BEANS -  The national production was estimated at 2.7 million tonnes or 45.1 million sacks, of which 32.3 million sacks (71.6%) were of arabica and 12.8 million sacks (28,4%), of  canephora. January’s and February’s hot and dry weather in 2014, in the Southeast, reduced the production of arabica, breaking the expectations of a full harvest due to crop rotation, typical of the species. The low prices of the coffee sacks in 2013 took away the investments in fertilization and producers took the chance to renew the oldest crops (pruning the orthotropic branch), which greatly influenced on the production decline.

SUGARCANE – The Southeast concentrates 64.9% of the national production, but the Central-West Region had the biggest volume increase in relation to 2013 (4.8 million tonnes) due to the 4.2% rise in the planted area. In the other areas, the increases, in tonnes, were: 2.6 million (Northeast), one million (Southeast and North) and 0.4 million (South).

CASSAVA (roots) - The production estimate (23.3 million tonnes) is 9.9% bigger than the one obtained in 2013. The five areas recorded increases in relation to the previous year. The biggest increase for production volume is for the Northeast (940,443 tonnes) where, after two years of droughts (2012 and 2013), production should grow 19.6% in relation to 2013, with a highlight to: Maranhão, 306,532 tonnes more (23.1%), Ceará, 239,957 tonnes more (79.9%), Bahia, 235,999 tonnes more (12.7%), Rio Grande do Norte, 79,750 tonnes more (98.8%), Pernambuco, 44,718 tonnes more (15.3%), Piauí, 42,632 tonnes more (27.3%), Paraíba, 13,296 tonnes more (9.8%) and Alagoas, 12,395 tonnes more (5.6%).

CORN GRAINS – The reduction of 3.1%, in the production was very much influenced by the 10.5% drop of corn 1st harvest. There were decreases of the first crop production in the Southeast (-24.3%) and in the South (-12.0%). In the Southeast, the greatest drop was in São Paulo (-1,412,026 tonnes or 42.2%), due to the reduction in the planted area and in the yield, caused by the droughts and by the hot nights which interfered in the grain filling stage. In Minas Gerais, the reduction reached 15.7%, also due to the hot and dry weather. The planted area with corn - 1st crop fell 5.2% in Brazil because of the preference for soybeans, whose prices were more compensating in the planting of the summer harvest.

SOYBEAN GRAINS - The national production of soybeans, a record in 2014, reached 86.2 million tonnes, growing 5.5% in relation to 2013. This increase was due to the increase in the area of the biggest producing states, specially Mato Grosso, which enlarged its soybean area by 677,053 hectares, 8.5% bigger in relation to 2013. Paraná, the second biggest producer, despite having enlarged its planted area by 263,035 hectares (5.5%), faced unfavorable weather conditions, thus, reducing its average yield and production by 11.9% and 7.0%, respectively.

WHEAT GRAINS - Forecast of record harvest for 2014: 7.9 million tonnes, with growth of 37.8% in production, in relation to 2013, of 23.3% in the harvested area and of 11.7% in the average yield. The highlight is the crop recovery in Paraná, which expects a production around 4.0 million tonnes, 113.0% more than in 2013.

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[1] The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) is a monthly forecast and monitoring survey of the major agricultural products. The survey for cereals (rice, corn, oat, rye, barley, sorghum, wheat and triticale), legumes ( peanuts and beans) and oilseeds (cotton seed, castor beans, soybeans and sunflower) were carried out with the cooperation of the National Supply Agency of the Ministry of Agriculture (CONAB), a subdivision of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA).