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In August, IBGE forecasts harvest 2.8% bigger than 2013's

September 09, 2014 09h00 AM | Last Updated: February 21, 2018 01h03 PM

AUGUST'S estimate for 2014
193.6 million metric tonnes
AUGUST/JULY 2014 - change
0,2% (+0.4 million metric tonnes)
2014's harvest/ 2013's harvest
2,8% (+5.4 million metric tonnes)

The eighth estimate of the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds accounts for 193.6 million tonnes, 2.8% higher than that of 2013 (188.2 million tonnes) and 0.2% bigger than July's estimate (193.2 million tonnes). The area to be harvested in 2014, of 56.2 million hectares, presents an increase of 6.4% compared with the harvested area in 2013 (52.8 million hectares) and remained virtually unchanged in relation to the previous month. Together, rice, corn and soybeans, the three major products in this group, represented 91.2% of the production estimate and accounted for 85.1% of the area to be harvested. In relation to the previous year, there were area increments of 0.3% for rice, 8.6% for soybeans and decrease (-0.5%) in the corn area to be harvested. Concerning production, the increases were of 3.6% for rice and of 6.0% for soybeans. For corn, there was decrease (-3.7%) when compared to 2013. The complete publication can be accessed at www.ibge.gov.br/english/estatistica/indicadores/agropecuaria/lspa.

Among the Major Regions, the volume of production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds presented the following distribution: Central-West Region, 81.3 million tonnes; South, 72.7 million tonnes; Southeast, 17.3 million tonnes; Northeast, 17.1 million tonnes; and North, 5.1 million tonnes. Compared with the latest harvest, increases are recorded for the North, 3.4%, Northeast, 43.0% and Central-West Regions, 3.6%. South and Southeast presented, respectively, a decrease of 0.4% and 12.6% in relation to the prior year's production. According to this estimate for 2014, Mato Grosso led the national production of cereal grains with a contribution of 24.2%, followed by Paraná, with 18.5% and Rio Grande do Sul, with 15.8%. These states together represent 58.5% of the total estimated production.

 


Cereals, legumes and oilseeds
Major Regions and Federation Units
Contribution to Production - August 2014

Cereals, legumes and oilseeds
Federation Units
Contribution to Production - August 2014 (%)

August's estimate in relation to the production obtained in 2013

Among the 26 major products, 20 present positive percent changes in relation to the previous year: upland cotton seed (25.7%), paddy rice (3.6%), oat grain (5.0%), potatoes - 1st crop (7.3%), potatoes 2nd crop (1.1%) and potatoes 3rd crop (3.4%), cacao nuts (3.7%), coffee beans - canephora (18.5%), sugarcane (1.2%), onions (7.9%), barley grain (4.9%), bean seed - 1st crop (36.5%), bean seed - 2nd crop (9.4%), oranges (0.9%), castor beans (173.2%), cassava (10.6%), corn grain 2nd crop (1.0%), soybean grain (6.0%), wheat grain (37.6%) and triticale grain (1.1%). There were six products with a negative change: peanuts in the shell - 1st crop (-19.5%), peanuts in the shell – 2nd crop (-17.4%), coffee beans - arabica (-13.1%), bean seeds - 3rd crop (-11.4%), corn grain 1st crop (-10.1%) and sorghum grain (-10.3%).

Highlights in August's estimate in relation to July

RICE (grains) – The production estimate for the month of August is 12,181,998 metric tonnes, in an area to be harvested of 2,355,272 hectares, and an average yield of 5,172 kg/ha. The production and average yield registered decrease, respectively, of 0.8% and 0.7%, when compared to the previous month's data. Rio Grande do Sul is the biggest producer (67.8%) and reported for this crop a production of 8,258,357 metric tonnes, in a harvested area of 1,113,480 hectares, with an average yield of 7,417 kg/ha, respectively, 1.0%, 0.1% and 0.9% lower, when compared to the previous month's data.

COFFEE (beans) total - The estimate of the coffee production in 2014 stayed at 2.7 million metric tonnes in August, an increase of 0.5% in relation to July, reflecting the reviews of the production estimates of Coffea canephora, which records growth of 1.6% this month. In Espírito Santo, responsible for 77.1% of the Coffea canephora production, the crop grew 2.2% over the previous month's data, whereas the average yield increased 2.8%, moving from 1,987 to 2,043 kilos per hectare. As to Coffea arabica, the production estimate did not change in relation to July; the crops must stay at 1,976,351 metric tonnes.

SUGARCANE – For the national production of sugarcane, there was a decrease of 6,532,723 metric tons (0.9%) in relation to July. There were increases in the monthly comparison of 0.6% in the planted area, 0.5% in the area to be harvested and 0.3% in the expected average yield. The highlights come from Alagoas, 3,633,691 metric tonnes bigger (13.4%) and Goiás, 2,756,142 metric tonnes bigger (4.0%), in relation to the previous survey. In these states there were increases of, respectively 7.2% and 3.1% in the areas to be harvested and a positive change in the expected yield of 5.8% and 0.9%.

BEAN (seeds) total – The estimate for the total production of beans in August 2014 indicates a decrease of 2.3% in production and of 0.7% in the planted area in relation to June. In this survey, the biggest producers are Paraná with 24.4%, Minas Gerais with 17.4% and Bahia with 9.3% of contribution to the national production. The 1st crop is estimated at 1,489,244 metric tonnes, a drop (-4.4%) over July's estimate. This result is an effect of the 2.1% decrease in the estimate of the average yield and 0.5% in the planted area. The biggest producers of this bean crops are Paraná (28.3%), Minas Gerais (13.6%) and Ceará (9.3%). The 2nd crop totals 1,449,133 metric tonnes, 1.1% lower than July's estimate. The planted area of 1,298,130 hectares is 1.2% lower than the last estimate. The reduction in the production estimate for this crop is due to the reduction in the estimates of the states of the Northeast, mainly Ceará (-6.0%) and Pernambuco (-3.9%). For the 3rd crop the production forecast rose 1.0% and reached 461,383 metric tonnes with a rise of 0.3% in the average yield and of 0.7% in the planted area. Minas Gerais is the greatest producer (48.1%), despite the 0.3% reduction in the planted area and in the production. Goiás estimates a rise of 6.8% in the planted area, shrinking 1.0% in the average yield and growing 5.7% in the production estimate, reaching 117,077 metric tonnes.

CORN (grains) total - The estimate of the corn crop in 2014 reached 77.5 million metric tonnes, 0.8% above July's report. The 1st crop fell 0.6% due to the negative reviews of the Northeast Region, with a highlight to the production drops of Paraíba (-48.9%), Rio Grande do Norte (-46.3%), Ceará (-6.1%), Pernambuco (-4.9%) and Piauí (-4.0%). For the 2nd crop there was a 1.7% growth over July. Mato Grosso do Sul and Goiás were the main contributors to the rise of the estimate, with positive reviews of 555,000 and 201,340 metric tonnes, respectively. In the first fortnight of August, Mato Grosso do Sul had 70% of the crops harvested, with a significant rise of the area to be harvested (5.4%) and average yield (2.0%).

WHEAT (grains) – The production estimate for the 2014 crop is of 7,868,767 metric tonnes, in a planted area of 2,720,954 hectares, respectively 0.3% and 0.6% bigger. The expected average yield is of 2,892 kg/ha, 0.3% lower if compared to July's data. There was increase in the planted area of 16,656 hectares, 5,901 ha in Minas Gerais (a 11.4% increase), 5,386 ha in Rio Grande do Sul (0.5%), 4,257 ha in Paraná (0.3%), 610 ha in the Federal District (76.3%) and 502 ha in Mato Grosso do Sul (4.2%). The South Region, responsible for 95.6% of the national production expects a production of 7,523,719 metric tonnes, in a planted area of 2,602,298 hectares, respectively 0.1% and 0.4% bigger when compared to July's data. Rio Grande do Sul reports an expected production of 3,259,418 metric tonnes, in a planted area of 1,157,777 hectares, respectively 0.4% and 0.5% bigger. Paraná expects a production of 3,976,549, in a planted area of 1,354,503 hectares and an average yield of 2,936 kg/ha. The planted area is 0.3% bigger in the comparison with the previous month's data, but the expected production (-0.1%) and average yield are lower (-0.4%).

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) is a monthly survey to forecast and monitor the harvest of the main agricultural products, whose information is obtained by means of the Municipal Commissions (COMEA) and/or Regional Commissions (COREA). The latter are consolidated in state level by the Agriculture Statistics Coordinating Groups (GCEA) and, later, evaluated at national level, by the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics (CEPAGRO). This Commission is formed by representatives from IBGE and from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). Due to users’ needs of crops' data, the surveys relative to cereal grains (rice, corn, oat, rye, barley, sorghum, wheat and triticale), Legumes (peanuts and beans) and oilseeds (cotton seed, castor beans, soybeans and sunflower) have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency of the Ministry of Agriculture (CONAB), a subdivision of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). That initiative is the result of a process (started in November, 2007) of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops.