The fifth estimate of the national harvest of cereals, legumes[i] and oilseeds added up to 192.3 million metric tons, 2.2% bigger than that obtained in 2013 (188.2 million metric tons) and 0.7% bigger than the April´s estimate. The estimate of the area to be harvested in 2014 (56.1 million hectares) rose 5.9% against the harvested area in 2013 (53.0 million hectares) and 0.6% in relation to the previous month (55.8 million hectares). Rice, corn and soybeans were the three main products in this group, which altogether represented 91.0% of the production estimate and accounted for 85.0% of the area to be harvested. In relation to 2013, there were area increases of 1.2% for rice, 8.1% for soybeans and a decrease (-1.5%) in the corn harvested area.
As to the production against 2013, highs of 4.8% for rice and of 5.8% for soybeans were reported, as well as a decline (-5.4%) for corn. The complete publication of the survey can be accessed at www.ibge.gov.br/english/estatistica/indicadores/agropecuaria/lspa.

In regional terms, the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds was distributed as follows: Central-West, 80.2 million metric tons; South, 72.4 million metric tons; Southeast, 17.2 million metric tons; Northeast, 17.2 million metric tons; and North, 5.3 million metric tons. Compared with the last harvest, the North Region registered a rise of 7.1%, the Northeast, 44.1%, and the Central-West, 2.1%. The South and Southeast reduced the production by 0.8% and 12.9%, respectively, in relation to 2013. Mato Grosso, the biggest producer of grains, recorded a participation of 24.1%, followed by Paraná (18.4%) and Rio Grande do Sul (16.0%), which altogether accounted for 58.5% of the total.

Due to the agricultural calendar, the data from the third crops of some products, as well as from the winter cultures (wheat, oat, rye, barley and triticale) were just projections obtained from information concerning previous years.

In relation to 2013, 17 out of 26 main products rose in May´s estimate

Among the 26 main products, 17 rose the production estimate in relation to the previous year: upland cottonseed (27.6%), paddy rice (4.8%), oat grain (6.9%), potatoes - 1st crop (7.7%), potatoes - 2nd crop (0.9%), potatoes - 3rd crop (0.7%), cacao nuts (3.9%), coffee beans - canephora (14.5%), onions (14.0%), barley grain (2.5%), bean seed - 1st crop (50.5%), bean seed - 2nd crop (11.2%), oranges (0.8%), castor beans* (355.8 %), cassava (10.1%), soybean grain (5.8%) and wheat grain (36.5%). Nine products posted a negative change: peanuts in the shell - 1st crop (19.3%), peanuts in the shell - 2nd crop (13.2%), coffee beans - arabica (12.8%), sugarcane (0.1%), bean seed - 3rd crop (11.6%), corn grain - 1st crop (9.2%), corn grain - 2nd crop (2.6%), sorghum grain (10.6%) and triticale grain (3.1%).

UPLAND COTTONSEED – The production estimate for 2014 was 4.3 million metric tons, representing a growth of 27.6% over 2013. The producers increased the planted area by 23.3%, due to the reaction of the cotton prices after two years of low prices. As the main producer (57.5% of the national overall), Mato Grosso expected a production of 2.5 million metric tons, 33.7% bigger than last year.

PADDY RICE - The production estimate for 2014 reached 12.3 million metric tons, representing 4.8% more than in 2013. In Rio Grande do Sul, the main producer of rice in Brazil (67.7% of the total harvested), the crop areas did not change much, since they are almost entirely irrigated.

COFFEE BEANS - ARABICA - The production of 1,982,527 metric tons estimated for this year was 12.8% smaller than that in 2013. Due to the biannual nature of the culture, it should be more adequately compared with the 2012 harvest, which also rose. In this comparison, the production in 2014 was 13.0% or 296,211 metric tons (4.94 million 60 kg sacks) smaller. This drop should not be attributed to the dry and hot climate only, but also to the long period of low prices of coffea arabica.

BEAN SEED - The production estimate for 2014 was 3.58 million metric tons, representing an increase of 21.8% over last year. According to CONAB, this production should be sufficient to meet the internal demand in Brazil (approximately 3.5 million metric tons). The increased production should be attributed to the improved prices of the culture.

CASSAVA - By rising 10.1%, the production of cassava was recovering in 2014 in relation to last year. A 23.4-million metric tons harvest was estimated, as well as an increase of 11.0% in the planted area. Considering that the climate was better in 2014 - rainier than in the previous two years -, a 25.3% bigger production was expected in the Northeast. In the Central-West and North, the production increased 8.6% and 5.8%, respectively, over 2013.

TOTAL CORN GRAIN - The production of 76.2 million metric tons was expected in 2014, representing a drop of 5.4% in relation to 2013. The producers preferred the first planting period, due to better prices. As a result, the production of the first crop of corn dropped 9.2% over 2013. Corn prices slightly recovered in the beginning of the year and the climate got better in the Central-West, particularly in Goiás, which expected to produce 6.3 million metric tons, 28.3% more than in 2013. As a consequence, the production of corn - 2nd crop in Brazil declined only 2.6% in relation to same period in 2013.

SOYBEAN GRAIN - The production estimate in Brazil in 2014 reached 86.5 million metric tons, an increase of 5.8% over 2013. The producers invested in this crop as a result of the good prices practiced in the market. Mato Grosso was the main producer of soybeans in Brazil (30.5% of the national overall), followed by Paraná (17.0%), Rio Grande do Sul (15.1%), Goiás (10.2%) and Mato Grosso do Sul (7.3%).

SORGHUM GRAIN - The production of sorghum in Brazil in 2014 should reach 1.85 million metric tons, representing a drop of 10.6% over 2013. This cereal undergoes the competition of corn, which usually gets better prices. When the climate is favorable in the Central-West, region responsible for producing 63.0% of the national overall, the producers prefer to grow corn instead of sorghum. Conversely, sorghum is preferred when the climate is drier, due to its hardiness and higher tolerance for the lack of water in the soil.

WHEAT GRAIN - The production of wheat was rising 36.5% over 2013 and should reach 7.8 million metric tons, due to the favorable climate in Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul, the main producers. The production in Paraná grew 112.3% over 2013, when the state suffered with cold temperatures and frosts. Yet the crops were still in the beginning of the cycle and subject to bad climate conditions.

May estimates in relation to April

The following production estimates stood out in relation to April: wheat (12.7%), corn - 2nd crop (3.8%), upland cotton (3.3%), coffea arabica (-0.9%), rice (-2.7%), beans - 1st crop (-3.2%), beans - 3rd crop (-9.4%) and sorghum (-12.4%).

UPLAND COTTONSEED - The national production of upland cotton should reach 4,343,626 metric tons. By rising 1.7% in the planted area and 1.6% in the average yield, the production increased 3.3% in May, mainly due to the revisions in Mato Grosso (57.5% of the overall production), which planned to harvest 2.5 million metric tons, an increase of 6.9% over April and of 33.7% over 2013.

PADDY RICE - The May estimate for the 2014 harvest predicted an area to be harvested of 2,377,406 hectares, an expected production of 12,320,861 metric tons and an expected average yield of 5,182 kg/ha, respectively 0.5%, 2.7% and 2.2% lower than the data last month. Except for the Central-West, production and planted area declined in the other regions against April.

COFFEE GRAIN - ARABICA - The production estimate was 1,982,527 metric tons or 33.04 million 60 kg sacks. The crops were damaged by high temperatures and by the lack of rainfall in January and February this year. Minas Gerais, the main producer of this type of coffee, reported a fall of 1.3% over last month and should produce 1,380,758 metric tons of coffee or 23.01 million 60 kg sacks.

BEAN SEED - 1st crop - According to the May estimate, the overall production of bean - 1st crop added up to 1,642,495 metric tons, 3.2% lower than the April estimate. The planted area of 1,865,423 ha was 0.2% smaller than that estimated last month. The estimated average yield was also 2.1% lower than that of April.

Paraná, the first national producer, had already finished the harvest and maintained the April´s figures: production of 421,680 metric tons, harvested area of 239.112 ha and average yield of 1,764 kg/ha, well above the national average (899 kg/ha).

Ceará, the second biggest producer of first crops, expected to produce 209,732 metric tons, 2.9% less than in April. The harvested area and the average yield also reduced 0.8% and 2.2%, respectively. Minas Gerais estimated an increase of 0.2% both for the planted area and for the average yield, but predicted the production of 202,128 metric tons, 1.6% less than in April.

BEAN SEED - 3rd crop - The expected production of 460,454 metric tons for the third crop of bean seed was 9.4% smaller than that of April. This result was due to the reduction of 9.9% in the planted area, though the average yield was expected to increase 0.6%.

Minas Gerais, the biggest producer of these crops (49.1% of the national total), expected to produce 226,155 metric tons, or 2.8% more than in April, with an increase of 3.2% in the planted area. The average yield was expected to reduce 0.3%. Goiás reduced the estimate for the planted area by 46.2%, which brought down the expected production by 40.2%, even with the increase of 11.1% in the expected average yield.

CORN GRAIN - 2nd crop - The estimated production (45.2 million metric tons) was 3.8% bigger than that of April. The highest positive revisions were in Minas Gerais (16.5%), Goiás (11.5%), Pará (8.5%) and Mato Grosso (6.1%), this last state responsible for 37.2% of the national production of corn - 2nd crop.

SORGHUM GRAIN - The production estimate in 2014 reached 1.85 million metric tons, representing a drop of 12.4% over the last month. The estimate this month was reduced by 263,568 metric tons, due to the smaller estimated harvest in Goiás, the main national producer (38.5% of the total), which expected a production 22.8% smaller than that in May.

WHEAT GRAIN - The production estimate in May was 7,803,908 metric tons, in an area to be harvested of 2,662,007 hectares and with an average yield of 2,932 kg/ha, respectively 5.9%, 12.7% and 6.4% bigger than those last month.

As the biggest producer and accounting for 95.8% of the national production, the South Region expected a production of 7,473,601 metric tons, in an area to be harvested of 2,553,574 hectares and with an expected average yield of 2,927 kg/ha, respectively 6.1%, 13.3% and 6.7% bigger than the data reported in the previous month. Paraná expected a production of 3,981,913 metric tons, in an area 4.3% larger than that in April, due to the good prices in the last harvest. Rio Grande do Sul expected a production of 3,247,432 metric tons, in 1,152,391 hectares and with an expected average yield of 2,818 kg/ha, respectively 8.8%, 28.1% and 17.7% bigger than those in the previous month. In the current estimate, Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul were responsible for 92.6% of the national production.

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) is a monthly survey to forecast and monitor the harvest of the main agricultural products, whose information is obtained by means of the Municipal Commissions (COMEA) and/or Regional Commissions (COREA). The latter are consolidated in state level by the Agriculture Statistics Coordinating Groups (GCEA) and, later, evaluated at national level, by the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics (CEPAGRO). This Commission is formed by representatives from IBGE and from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). Surveys relative to cereals, legumes and oilseeds have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency (CONAB), an agency of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA) as a sequence to a process of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops, which started in October 2007. Eventually, the 2012 variables could be rectified in September.