In March of 2014, the retail trade of the country recorded a change of –0.5% for the volume of sales and a rise of 0.5% in the nominal revenue, both rates in relation to the previous month (seasonally adjusted). As to the moving average, the volume of sales did not post any change (0.0%), whereas the revenue registered a growth rate of 0.6%. In the other comparisons (obtained from the unadjusted original series), the national retail trade recorded, as to the volume of sales, a decrease of – 1.1% over March of the previous year - the first negative interannual result after 12 months of growth. In cumulative terms, the change was of 4.5% both in the quarter and in the last 12 months. For the same indicators, the nominal revenue of sales recorded change rates of 4.7%, 10.3% and 11.6%, respectively. The complete publication of the survey can be accessed at www.ibge.gov.br/english/estatistica/indicadores/comercio/pmc/.

Among the ten activities, three recorded positive change

Considering March results over those of the previous month, three of the ten activities surveyed recorded positive results in terms of seasonally-adjusted volume of sales. In order of importance of rates, the results were:Furniture and household appliances (1.5%); Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (1.2%); Pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopedic articles, toiletries and cosmetics (0.5%); Other articles of personal and domestic use (-0.2%); Vehicles and motorcycles, parts and accessories (-0.6%); Fabric, apparel and footwear (-0.8%); Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco (-1.0%); Fuels and lubricants (-1.5%); Construction material (-3.1%); e Office, computer and communication material and equipment(-4.5%).

In the March 14/March 13 comparison (unadjusted series), five of the eight retail trade activities recorded negative rates in terms of sales volume. In order of importance to the formation of the overall rate, the changes with negative impacts were: -2.8% forHypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco; -7.3% for Fabric, apparel and footwear; -3.8% for Other articles of personal and domestic use; -4.9% for Office, computer and communication equipment and material; -8.2% forBooks, newspapers, magazines and stationery. The positive changes, also in order of importance, were 9.6% forPharmaceutical and medical goods, cosmetic and toilet articles; 4.0% for Fuels and lubricants; and 3.8% forFurniture and household appliances.

The segment Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco, with change of -2.8% in volume of sales in March over the same month a year before, led to the main negative contribution to the overall retail trade rate. The purchasing power of the population remains positive, once the average usual real wage bill of employed persons recorded increase of 4.0% over the figure of March 2013, but, according to PME, the March calendar effect was the main cause for the performance of this activity. That occurred because Easter's was celebrated in March last year, but in April in 2014. In terms of cumulative figures, the rate for the first three months of the year was 2.6% and for the last 12 months, 2.1%.

With the second biggest impact on the formation of the overall rate, the segment of Fabric, apparel and footwear recorded decrease of about -7.3% in the volume of sales over the result of the same month a year ago, with cumulative increase of -0.5% in the year and 2.7 in the last 12 months. These changes of volume were below the overall average, although the prices of this segment have risen at a lower rate than the overall index (increase of 4.9% in the group Apparel, versus average inflation of 6.2%, for the last 12 months, according to IPCA).

The activity Other articles of personal and domestic use, with the third biggest impact on the formation of the retail trade rate, recorded change of -3.8% in volume of sales in comparison with results o March 2013. It is worth mentioning that the segment, which is formed, among other activities, by department stores, also had its negative result influenced by the calendar effect. The cumulative change for the first quarter was 7.4%, and for the last 12 months, 9.2%.

The segment of Office, computer and communication material and equipment, responsible for the fourth negative impact on the formation of the overall rate, recorded decrease of about -4.9% in terms of volume of sales, over that of the same month a year ago. One of the reasons for the deceleration of performance rates for this activity, which led to the negative result of March, was the change of price levels for personal computers, the main item in this activity. Since April 2013, the prices of personal computers have recorded rises, with rates successively higher for the cumulative figure of the last 12 months, according to IPCA. In terms of cumulative results, the activity recorded change of -0.7% in the year, and of 5.8% in the last 12 months.

The activity Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery accounted for the fifth biggest influence to the overall results of retail trade. In relation to March 2013, there was decrease of volume of sales by -8.2%. The expansion of prices of stationery (9.5% in 12 months until March, versus 6.2% of the general index, according to IPCA) has negatively affected the results of this activity. In terms of cumulative indexes, the change rate was -3.5% and for the last 12 months, -0.2%.

Extended trade changes -1.2% in March

The extended retail trade, which includes retail and the activities of Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces e de Construction material, recorded Retail trade in the country started 2013 with increase in volume of sales (0.60%) and in nominal revenue (1.3%) versus results of the previous month (seasonally adjusted). The cumulative indexes were 3.6%, in the year and 3.8% in the last 12 months, for volume of sales, and 8.8% and 8.7%, respectively, for nominal revenue.

The fall of -5.7% in the year-on-year comparison reflects, above all, the negative rate of Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces, the result of which was -16.0% in relation to that of March 2013. This activity also recorded the following changes: -0.6%, seasonally adjusted, over the previous month; -3.8% in the quarter and -0.4% cumulative in the last 12 months. The negative result in the year-on-year comparison has been influenced by the deceleration of credit increase, as highlighted by the Central Bank.

The segment of Material de construção recorded changes in terms of volume of sales by -3.1% in comparison with the seasonally adjusted result of the previous month. The other changes were 1.4% over March 2013, 7.2% in the quarter and 7.4% cumulative in the last 12 months. In spite of the deceleration of the year-on-year rate, the activity still presents cumulative results above the overall average of retail trade. The reduction of IPI for a basket of products in the sector and the favorable conditions of housing credit (including the expansion of FGTS use for real estate financing operations) are some factors which have contributed to this behavior.

Results were positive in 12 states compared to those of March 2013

Among the 27 Federation Units, 12 presented positive results in the comparison between March 2014 and March 2013, with reference to volume of sales. The positive highlights were: Amapá (9.6%); Acre (6.6%); Maranhão (6.0%); Ceará (5.0%) and Bahia (4.2%). As for the participation in the formation of the overall rate of retail trade, the highlights, in order of importance, were: Rio de Janeiro (-5.7%); São Paulo (-0.6%); Rio Grande do Sul (-2.9%) and Santa Catarina.

In relation to extended retail trade, only four states had positive changes: Alagoas (2.4%); Santa Catarina Acre (0.8%); Maranhão (0.6%) and Ceará (0.2%). In terms of negative impact on the overall result of the sector, the highlights were the states of São Pailo (-0.8%); Minas Gerais (-9.5%); Rio de Janeiro (-5.1%); Paraná (-6.8%) and Espírito Santo (-13.2%).

Also considering the Federation Units, the seasonally-adjusted results for volume of sales point to fourteen states with positive results in the month/previous month comparison - Graph 6. The biggest positive changes were those of Paraíba (3.3%); Amapá (2.3%); Rondônia (1.8%); Piauí (1.5%) and Maranhão (1.1%). The main decreases were those of Acre (-6.8%); Roraima (-6.2%); Santa Catarina (-2.7%) and Pará (-2.6%).