In March 2014, the Producer Price Index (IPP) changed by -0.22% compared with the figure in the previous month, a result below that of February (0.52%). This was the first negative result since October 2013 (-0.45%). The cumulative indicator of 2014 was 1.73% in March, versus 1.96% in February. Compared with the same month in 2013 (cumulative index in 12 months), prices rose by 7.96% in March, versus 8.24% in February.

IPP measures the evolution of “factory gate” prices, excluded taxes or freight, for 23 manufacturing industry sectors. The complete publication is available at www.ibge.gov.br/english/estatistica/indicadores/precos/ipp.

Five of the 23 activities surveyed recorded prices rises

In March 2014, five of the 23 activities surveyed recorded price rises, versus 14 activities in the previous month. The four main changes of March versus February were observed in computer, electronic and optical products (-2.54%), tobacco (-2.01%), printing (-1.66%) and wood (-1.60%). The items accounting for the main influence, impact, on the change of March versus February (-0.22%) werecomputer, electronic and optical products (-0.07 percentage points), production of machinery and equipment (-0.04 p.p.), oil refining and ethanol products (0,04 p.p.) and other chemicals (-0.04 p.p.).

The cumulative indicator of 2014 reached 1.73% in March, versus 1.96% in February. Among the activities which recorded the main percentage changes in this case, the highlights were oil refining and ethanol production (5.45%), oil refining and ethanol production (5.14%), basic metals (4.84%) and electrical machinery and apparatuses (4,67%). The main sectors were oil refining and ethanol products (0.60 p.p.), basic metals (0.37 p.p.), other chemicals (0.34 p.p.) and food (-0.21 p.p.).

Compared the same month in 2013 (cumulative index in 12 months), , prices rose by 7.96% in March, versus 8.24% in February. These last two results area among the highest in the series, followed by the change observed in January 2010 (8.04%). The four main price changes occurred in tobacco (16.12%), footwear and leather articles (14.49%), food (11.54%) and electrical machinery and apparatuses (11.20%). The main influences on the comparison between March and the same month in the previous year came fromfood (2.22 p.p.), oil refining and ethanol products (1.12 p.p.), other chemicals (0.81 percentage points) andbasic metals (0.70 percentage points).

The prices of food changed by -0.06% in comparison with those of February 2014 and the cumulative index in the year was -1.03%. Even considering the negative results of the quarter (which occurred in January, -1.52%, and March), the prices of March were 11.54% bigger than those of the same month a year ago. It is the highest result since February 2013, 11.88%. Among the mains products in terms of influence, the highlights, with negative price changes, were "residue of soybean extraction" (harvest) and "concentrated orange juice". With positive changes: "sterilized milk/UHT/carton milk" and "crystallized sugar". These four items accounted for -0.16 percentage points of the -0.06% rate. Among these items, milk was the only one to stand out in terms of change. As a result of the drought, products related to slaughtering ("jerked or smoked beef" and "cured beef or pork and related products") positively affected the result. A seasonal effect - the particularly hot summer of 2014 - accounted for the postive change in "ice creal, pospsicles and refrigerated edible products".

The activity oil refining and ethanol products recorded change of 0.34% in March 2014 in comparison with February, following a positive trend as observed since December. In the overall composition of the manufacturing industry index the sector had participation of 0.04 percentage points out of the -0.22% of all manufacturing activities. This result caused the cumulative index of the last 12 months to record 9.91%, and reach the second position, in terms o finfluence on this indicator, among all the 23 subsectors covered by IPP. In the year, until March, the sector had a cumulative rate of 5.45%, mainly due to the chage of 4.51% of the january indicator. "Ethyl alcohol (anidrhous or hydrated)" and "kerosene" had positive changes, whereas "baisc lubricating oils" and "naphthas" recorded negative changes. Together, the four items accounted for 0.28 percentage points of the 0.34% recorded by the sector.

The industry of other chemicals recorded a change of -0.32% of change in the indicator of March versus February 2014, reversing the positive performance of the last two months. The cumulative indicator in the last 12 months, after having accelerated from December to February, decelerated in March, reaching 7.16% in comparison with March 2013. In the year, the sector had cumulative change of 3.07%. In terms of March figures versus February results, the highlights were "NPK fertilizers", "herbicides", "ethylene" and urea". Inorganic chemistry, best represented by the groups of manure and fertilizers and their respective intermediates, recorded negative changes. The same happened to organic chemistry, especially in the group of basic petrochemicals. Positive changes, however, were observed in agricultural defensives, which is the case of herbicides. The added contribution of the highlighted items was -0.41 percentage points. In comparison with March 2013, all the products recorded positive change in March 2014.

The result of March 2014 for bais metalswas negative by 0.27%, and that influenced the cumulative change in the last 12 months: it reached 9.03% (the third biggest change since the beginning of the survey" and 4.84% in the first quarter of the year, the most significant result of IPP for this sector since the beginning of the series. In march, three of the products recording the biggest changes had their results related to the iron industry, more specifically those belonging to the segment of laminated products: "other steel alloy bars, except stainless ones", "stainless steel coils or plates, including stripes", both with positive changes, and "uncoated thick steel carbon plates", with negative change. The fourth product, "copper and copper alloy bars, profiles and rebars", belonging to non-iron basic metals. Among these products only "stainless steel coils or plates, including stripes" did not feature among the most significant products in the month, being replaced by "non-alloy aluminum in raw form", with negative change/contribution;. Also regarding the contribution in the month, the four highlighted items in terms of influence represented negative results of 0.54% in the month's final figure. The cumulative figures of 2014 and 12 months show that the four highlights were the same, besides also being those accounting for the biggest contributions: "non-alloy aluminum in raw form", "cold-rolled steel carbon coils, non-coated", "hot-rolled steel carbon coils, non-coated", and "carbon steel ingots, blocks, rods or plates".

In March 2014, versus February, the sector of computer, electronic and optical products recorded fall of 2.54% in prices. This month, three of the four products recording the biggest changes had negative results. They were: "smart cards", "computer monitors and projectors", and "television sets". The only representative among the products with biggest price variation, with positive results, was "clocks or watches", the only item not selected among those accounting for major influences in the month - replaced by "mobile telephones", which recorded negative price change. Also regarding the contribution in the month, the four highlighted items in terms of influence accounted for -2.80 percentage points. The analysis of the four main products in terms of yearly results, shows two products with negative results "smart cards" and "computer monitors and projectors") and two with positive results ("radio receivers for any purposes, including combination with other apparatuses" and "electricity meters"). The cumulative index in the year points to negative change of 0.55%, it is above the cumulative figure s of 2012, which had registered negative change of 2.80%. Finally, among the four products which most affected the last 12 months' figures, two had negative results "smart cards" and "television sets" and electricity meters"). The result of the last 12 months points to positive change of 1.40%, a significant decrease in relation to the February result (4.92%).

Manufacture of machinery and equipment recorded -0.96% of change in March versus February, contributing to the trend observed in the previous month, the change of which had been -0.48% versus that of January. With two negative results in a row, the cumulative index in the year reached -0.30%. Nevertheless, in spite f the recent deceleration, the 12-month indicator recorded positive change of 5.52%. The four main products regarding the monthly indicator accounted for -1.06 out of a total -0.96 percentage points. The item "valves and faucets" was the only one from the group engines, pumps and compressors" to record positive change. Air-conditioning appliances, both in terms of "central air-conditioning" and "wall, window or movable air-conditioners" pointed to price fall in March. In the group agricultural machines and tractors, the item "agricultural tractors" recorded negative change. Following the same trend as the monthly indicator, the cumulative index in the year, with reference to the highlighted products, also recorded a negative change. The highlights were "agricultural tractors", ""wall, window or movable air-conditioners", which were already relevant to the monthly indicator, besides "machines and appliances for projecting, spraying or irrigating, for agricultural use" and "ball bearings, cylinders or rollers". It resembles the 12-month indictor, except for the item "machines and appliances for projecting, spraying or irrigating, for agricultural use", which includes "lathe machines".

Differently from the results of January and February, the production of motor vehicles recorded negative change of 0.15% in the comparison of march with the previous month. As a result, the cumulative figure in the year fell to 1.56%. In relation to the last 12 months, the activity recorded 3.71%. The most significant products in the comparison with the previous month were "gas, ethanol or biofuel passenger cars", with positive results and "pieces for car engines", "chassis with engines for buses or trucks" and "tractor-trucks for trailers and semi-trailers", with negative results. The prices of this sector recorded positive change of 1.39% compared to that of the previous month. In the cumulative index in 2014, "starters for spark-ignition engines" recorded a negative result in March. "Gas, ethanol or biofuel passenger cars", "gearboxes for motor vehicles" and "tractor-trucks for trailers and semi-trailers" recorded positive results. The most significant impacts in the cumulative index in 12 months had positive results: "gas, ethanol or biofuel passenger cars", "pieces for car engines", "tractor-trucks for trailers and semi-trailers" and ""chassis with engines for buses or trucks".