The third estimate for the national production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds points to 189.4 million...

The third estimate for the national production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds amounts to 189.4 million metric tons, 0.7% above the 2013 figure (188.2 million metric tons) and 0.5% below the February estimate (190.3 million metric tons). The area to be harvested in 2014, of 55.6 million hectares, presents increase of 5.3% over the 2013 figure (52.8 million hectares), and increase of 1.0% over that of previous month (55.1 million hectares).

Rice, corn and soybeans are the three main products in this group, and, together, represent 91.4% of the output estimate and account for 85.3% of the area to be harvested. In comparison with the previous year, there were increases in area: 1.8% for rice; 7.5% for soybeans and decrease of 0.9% for corn. Concerning production, rice recorded increase of 7.7% and soybeans, of 6.2%. Corn fell by 8.5% in comparison with the 2013 result. The complete publication can be accessed at www.ibge.gov.br/english/estatistica/indicadores/agropecuaria/lspa.

Among the Major Regions, the produced volume of cereals, legumes and oilseeds presents the following distribution: Central West, 77.4 million metric tons; South, 72.2 million metric tons; Southeast, 16.9 million metric tons; Northeast, 18.0 million metric tons and North, 5.0 million metric tons. Compared to the previous harvest, there was increment of 50.2% in the Northeast. The Central-West, South and Southeast Regions presented, respectively, decrease of 1.3%, 1.1% and 14.7% in relation to the production of the previous year. The North remained stable (0.0%). In this evaluation for 2014, Mato Grosso was the leader as the major producer of grains, with participation of 23.9%, followed by Paraná (18.6%) and Rio Grande do Sul (16.1%), which, together, accounted for 58.6% of the overall national output.

March estimate versus 2013 output

Among the 26 selected products, 16 had a positive percentage change in the output estimates in relation to the previous year: upland cottonseed (23.5%), paddy rice (7.7%), potatoes - 1st crop (7.7%), potatoes - 2nd crop (0.5%), potatoes - 3rd crop (0.8%), coffee beans - canephora (13.0%), sugarcane (0.0%), onions (12.9%), bean seed - 1st crop (56.6%), beans seed - 2nd crop (1.8%), oranges (0.2%), castor beans (372.3%), cassava (6.9%), soybean grain (6.2%) and wheat grain (17.3%). Ten products recorded negative change: peanuts in husk - 1st crop (17.6%), peanuts in husk - 2nd crop (10.7%), oat bgrain (1.3%), cacao bean (2.1%), coffe beasn - arabica (8.1%), barley grain (8.4%), beans seed - 3rd crop (2.8%), corn grain - 1st crop (7.8%), corn grain - 2nd crop (9.1%) and triticale grain (14.2%).

Highlights in the March estimate in relation to February

UPLAND COTTON SEED The production of 4.2 million metric tons is 10.4% above the estimate in the month of February, 3.8 million metric tons, mainly due to the increase of planted area, by 8.5%, a percentage attributed to the good perspectives of prices for the product starting in the 2014 harvest. Average yield is expected to increase 1.8%. Mato Grosso is the main producing state, with a participation of 55.6% of the national output, with increase of 3.2% of planted area and harvested and 2.5% of the expected output, which is supposed to amount to 2.3 million metric tons.

PADDY RICE In March, the national output of rice for 2014 is estimated at 12,660,899 metric tons, 1.3% above the estimate of February. The total area planted with this crop and the area directed to harvesting were reevaluated at above 0.8%. The South Region is the main producer in the country, with absolute predominance of irrigated rice. Rio Grande do Sul concentrates 68.1% of the national output and, in March, promoted slight changes in its figures for the 2014 harvest, in relation to the previous month: -0.2% in the total area and area directed to harvesting; 1.8% in the expected output and 2.0% in the expected yield.

COFFEE BEAN – Considering both coffea canephora and arabica, the country is expected to produce, in 2014, 2,818,214 metric tons (46.9 million 60 kg sacks of processed coffee beans). The 2014 harvest is expected to face an unusual year, according to the time series published by IBGE, since the biennial production of coffee has been observed since 1992, without interruptions. If the current negative estimates for coffea arabica are confirmed, there will be two years of "low outputs" (2013 and 2014).

COFFEA ARABICA (beans) According to the March estimate, Brazil is expected to produce 2,086,097 metric tons of coffea arabica, which is equivalent to 34.7 million 60 kg sacks. In 2013, which was a year of low output, the country produced 2,270,916 metric tons (37.8 million sacks). The percentage of decrease, in relation to the February estimate is 5.1%. There has been decrease of the expected yield in comparison with the March/February estimate, -5.4%, with a change from 1,436 kg/ha, evaluated in February, to 1,358 kg/ha, in the annual survey. There are important records of average yield, since the high temperatures and the dry period in the beginning of 2014 have been very negative and prolonged. Decrease of the Brazilian output was already expected in 2014, due to the reduction of area planted with this crop, as a result of the major international crisis which became more serious in November 2012 and lasted until the end of 2013. With decrease of prices at levels below R$ 300,00/sack, there was decrease of incentive to the maintenance of coffee crops. That led producers to prune plantations more strongly and even cut out little productive fields. The Coordinating Groups of Agricultural Statistics (GCEAs), which account for monthly estimates area formed by Institutions related to the sector, such as: IBGE, FAEMG, EPAMIG, SEAPA, CEASAMINAS, INCAPER, CONAB, DERAL, MDA, BB, BACEN and EMATER, among others. Minas Gerais, the 1st national producer of coffee beans (arabica) points to decrease of 2.9% in the output expected for March over February 2014, which amounts to 1,494,171 metric tons (24.9 million 60 kg-sacks). The area to be harvested is estimated at 1,018, 924 ha.

CAFÉ CANEPHORA – For coffea canephora, the estimate conducted in March 2014 is an output of 732,117 metric tons (12.2 million sacks), 1.0% more than the amount estimated in February. The total area planted with this crop is 531,190 hectares (0.5%). The output of Espírito Santo, the main producer of coffea canephora, is estimated at 570,971 metric tons (9.5 million sacks). The non-irrigated areas of the state have ben affected by dry periods and high temperatures.

BEANS (Total) - The output estimate for total beans in March 2014 points to a decrease of 4.5% in the output of 5.8% in planted area in relation to February. In this survey, the main producers are Paraná, with 25.7% of participation, Minas Gerais, with 16.5% and Goiás, with 8.5% in the national output. Paraná reduced its planted area by 0.7%, and the estimate of average yield, by 1.5%. As a result, the output estimate is 2.2% smaller than in February, and stayed at 917,412 metric tons.

BEANS - 1st cropThe 1st national harvest of beans is estimated at 1,708,949 metric tons, which represents decrease of 3.3% in comparison with that of February. This figure results from the decrease of estimate of average yield by 4.0%, since planted area increased 1.4%. In Bahia, the expected decrease of average yield was 42.8%, with a change from 691 kg/ha, previously estimated, to 395 kg/ha, in this March estimate. The biggest producers of this harvest of beans are Paraná (24.7%), Ceará (12.7%) and Minas Gerais (11.7%).

BEANS - 1st crop In spite of the estimate increase for average yield, the expected output of 1,348,986 metric tons is 7.7% lower than in February, since there has been decrease of 17.2% in the estimate of planted area. In Paraná, the biggest national producer in the 2nd crop as well, filed investigations point to a total area planted with beans of about 263,718 ha, and an expected output of 490,386 metric tons of this product, lower by 1.1% and 1.4% than those of the previous month, respectively. Average yield (1,860 kg/ha) recorded decrease of 3.0%.

CASSAVA - The estimated output for cassava for 2014 is 22,654,996 metric tons, presenting decrease of 3.1% over that of the previous month, due to the decrease of 4.5% in the area to be planted, despite the increase of 1.5% in average yield. The Northeast Region, affected by drought for two years, reduced its output estimate in this survey by 13.9% in comparison with the previous month figure, as a result of the area to be harvested, which fell by 13.2%. The biggest decreases in relation to the previous month were those of Bahia (-44.6%), Ceará and Alagoas (-16.4%), whereas the biggest increases were those of Rio Grande do Norte and Pernambuco (5.5%). The North region, the main producer in the country, expects increase of 1.9% in production this month over the previous one, with highlight to Amazonas (17.5%). Pará, the main national producer, contributing with 20.7% to the national output, kept the estimates of the previous month. The price of the metric tons of cassava, after having reached R$ 500.00, has fallen in the last three months, reflecting the increased supply.

CORN BEAN - 1st crop In March the national estimate for 1st harvest corn is 31.5 million metric tons, 4.5% less than the figure observed in February. All the variables investigated present decrease: total planted area (-1.6%), area harvested or to be harvested (-2.3%) and average yield (-2.2%). The big decreases observed in the Southeast are directly related to the hot weather and lack of rain in the first two months of the current year, especially in Minas Gerais. This state expects to harvest 5,774,064 metric tons of corn in the first harvest, 3.3% less than the previous month's estimate. The area to be harvested presents decrease of 1.0% and the average yield, presents decrease of 2.4%.

CORN BEAN - 2nd crop For the third consecutive year, corn - 2nd crop is expected to surpass the 1st one. The estimate for the national output of corn - 2nd crop is 42.2 million metric tons, 0.5% above the February estimate. The total area planted or to be planted with this crop if 8,650,834 ha, 2.7% above that of the previous month. Yield, however, is expected to decrease by 1.9%. Mato Grosso, the main producer of corn - 2nd crop, points to an output of 15.8 million metric tons, 0.7% below the February estimate. In this harvest, investments in technology will be smaller than in the harvest of 2013, mainly in relation to seeds. The state expects decrease of productivity by 4.0%. The crops of corn - 2nd harvest in paraná were implemented with high technology, but the estimates present decreases in relation to February, in the expected production (-0.3%) and in average yield (-0.4%).

SOYBEANS - The March estimate for the production of soybeans is 86,769,230, 1.9% smaller than the previous estimate, reflecting part of the negative effects of the dry period and of the high temperatures occurred in the beginning of 2014. Average yield decreases 2.9%, changing to 2,897 kg/ha. The Central West, which accounts for 47.9% of the national output, records average yield of 2,985 kg/ha, 3.6% abve the estimate of the previous month. In Mato Grosso, the main nationa producer, there are reports of constant rain in the middle north of the state during the harvesting period. The output fell 0.8% and income, 2.2% when compared to those of February. The state is expected to generate 26.3 million metric tons. In Paraná, the 2nd main producer, the current estimates of the area to be harvested and the expected output were both corrected by 0.4%, with a continued income of 2,932 kg/ha.

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) is a monthly survey to forecast and monitor the harvest of the main agricultural products, whose information is obtained by means of the Municipal Commissions (COMEA) and/or Regional Commissions (COREA). The latter are consolidated at state level by the Agriculture Statistics Coordinating Groups (GCEA) and, later, evaluated at national level, by the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics (CEPAGRO). This Commission is formed by representatives from IBGE and from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). Due to Due to users’ needs of harvest data, the surveys relative to Cereals, Legumes and Oilseeds (cotton seed, peanut, rice, beans, castor beans, corn, soybean, oat, rye, barley, sunflower, sorghum, wheat and triticale) have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency of the Ministry of Agriculture (CONAB), a subdivision of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). That initiative is the result of a process (started in October, 2007) of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops.