The first estimate of the national harvest of grains, legumes and oilseeds (cotton seeds, peanuts, rice, beans, castor beans, corn, soybeans, oat, rye, barley, sunflower, sorghum, wheat and triticale)  for 2014 account for a production of 193.9 million metric tons, 3.0% higher than the harvest in 2013 (188.2 million metric tons). The estimate of the area to be harvested in 2014, of 55.0 million hectares, presents an increase of 4.2%, compared with the harvested area in 2013 (52.8 million hectares). Together, rice, corn and soybeans, the three major products in this group, represented 92.5% of the estimate of the output and 85.5% of the area to be harvested. In relation to the previous year, there were area increments of 1.0% for rice, 6.4% for soybeans and a decrease of 1.2% for corn in the area to be harvested. Concerning production, the increases were of 6.3% for rice and of 11.7% for soybeans. For corn, there was a 6.0% decrease when compared to 2013. It is worth mentioning that the variables reported in the current survey were collected up to the 2nd fortnight of January, not being yet registered the negative effects of the high temperatures and low rainfall that strikes principally the South and Southeast Regions of the country.
The complete publication can be accessed at www.ibge.gov.br/english/estatistica/indicadores/agropecuaria/lspa.

Among the Major Regions, the produced volume of cereals, legumes and oilseeds presents the following distribution: Central West, 79.1 million metric tons; South Region, 73.1 million metric tons; Southeast, 19.8 million metric tons; Northeast Region, 16.7 million metric tons; and North Region, 5.2 million metric tons.  In comparison with the previous harvest, there were increments of 0.8% in the Central West, 39.5% in the Northeast and 5.7% in the North. The South and Southeast Regions practically repeated the output recorded in the previous year. In this evaluation for 2014, Mato Grosso was the leader as the major producer of grains, with participation of 23.5%, followed by Paraná (18.4%) and Rio Grande do Sul (15.9%), which, together, accounted for 57.8% of the overall national production.

 January estimates versus 2013 output

Among the 26 selected products, 12 recorded a positive percentage change in output estimate in relation to the previous year: upland cottonseed (12.2%), paddy rice (6.3%), potatoes - 1st crop (1.4%), potatoes - 2nd crop (4.9%), coffee beans - canephora (14.3%0, sugarcane (0.8%), bean seed - 1st crop (62.3%), bean seed - 2nd crop (11.3%), castor beans (365.9%), cassava (10.3%), soybean grain (11.7%) and sorghum grain (5.4%).  Negative changes were recorded by fourteen products: peanuts in the shell - 1st crop (7.6%), peanuts in the shell - 2nd crop (15.7%), oat grain (9.2%), potatoes - 3rd crop (2.3%), cacao nuts (4.2%), coffee bean - arabica (1.9%), onions (6.0%), barley grain (17.3%), bean seed - 3rd crop, oranges (0.1%), corn grain - 1st crop (1.5%), corn grain - 2nd crop (9.3%), wheat grain (16.2%) and triticale grain (13.0%).  

Upland cottonseed  - With part of the crops already planted (most areas are planted late), the expected figures are for this item are: planting of 1,053,947 hectares all over the country, and production of 3,820,114 metric tons, which represents increase of 11.9% in planted area and increase of 12.2% in output compared to the previous year. Mato Grosso, the main producer of this commodity in the country, is expected to have a a 22.1% bigger output than last it did year, because the rise of prices, has led to increase of the area to be planted by 23.8% (11,466 ha). In Bahia, the increment of area was only 400 ha, but due to problems with an infestation of cotton bollworm, the output records decrease of 965 metric tons (0.1%). In the other states, which, together, account for 16.1% of the national output, there is some fear of the occurrence of attacks by this insect.

Paddy rice - The estimated output of rice in 2014 is 12,501,317 metric tons, pointing to increase of 6.3% in relation to 2013, an amount which must be enough to supply the national demand. The South Region is expected to produce 9,748,028 metric tons, which represents 77.9% of the national output.  In Rio Grande do Sul, the main producing state, the planted area is expected to reach 1,114,614 hectares, and the expected output is 8,472,699 metric tons, pointing to increase of 4.6% in comparison with 2013. The expected average yield, of 7,387 kg/ha, is 7.9% bigger than that of the previous year. In the Northeast, the output estimate was 987.952 metric tons, pointing to increase of 40.4% in relation to 2013 and increase of 38.8% in the expected average yield, reflecting a positive prospect of producers with the climate. The production of the Central West is expected to reach 731,360 metric tons, indicating reduction of 1.4% versus that of 2013.

Total coffee (beans)  - The estimate conducted in January for the national harvest of coffee to be harvested in 2014 amounted to 2,968,989 metric tons, or 49.5 million 60 kg-sacks of processed coffee beans, considering both types together (arabica and canephora). There was increase of 1.7% in relation to the harvested obtained in 2013. The harvest of 2014 points to a different year in relation to the last 21 previous ones, in case the current estimates for coffea arabica are confirmed.

Coffea arabica (beans) - In 2014 Brazil is expected to produce 2,228,408 metric tons of coffea arabica, which is equivalent to 37.1 million sacks of 60kg and represents 75.1% of the Brazilian of coffee.  In 2013, which was a year of low output, the country produced 2,270,916 metric tons (37.8 million sacks). The percentage of decrease, in relation to 2013, is 1.9%. Up to this month, at national level, the average yield is 1.1% above that of 2013.  Minas Gerais, the 1st national producer of coffee beans (arabica) points to decrease of 0.9% in the output expected for 2014, which amounts to 1,570,136 metric tons (26.2 million 60 kg-sacks). That represents 70.5% of the total coffea arabica estimated for the country in 2014. The area to be harvested is estimated at 1,015,736 hectares (-1.0%).

Coffee beans (canephora) - For coffea canaphora, the estimate conducted in January 2014 is an output of 740,581 metric tons (12.3 million sacks), 14.3% bigger than the output of the country in 2013, in an area to be harvested on 466,108 hectares. The overall area planted with this crop is 535,525 hectares (-6.5%). The state of Espírito Santo, the main Brazilian producer of canephora, is expected to account, in 2014, for 78.1% of the Brazilian output of this type of coffee. The state production is initially estimated at 578,205 metric tons (9.6 million sacks), with increase of 18.1% in relation to 2013. The area to be harvested is estimated to increase 0.8%.

Beans (grain) - For total beans, the expected production in 2014 is 3,747,656 metric tons, 27.6% bigger than the output of 2013. The planted area was estimated at 3,307,151 hectares, 8.8% bigger than in 2013. The biggest producers, according to the current estimate are Paraná, with 25.5%, Minas Gerais, with 17.0% and Bahia, with 95% of participation in the national output. Among the states only Minas Gerais recorded decrease of planted area,  3.7% in relation to 2013. In spite of that, there is a prospect of increase of the average yield  by 10.0%, because of a production estimate of 638,720 metric tons, which is 13.2% bigger than that of the previous year. Paraná increased its planting area by 6.0% and expects increase of average yield by 30.5%, with an estimated output of 955.075 metric tons, 38.2% bigger than in 2013. The 1st national harvest of beans is estimated at 1,770,763 metric tons, which represents increase of 62.3% in comparison with 2013. This result came from the increase of 15.8% of planted area and 26.0% of average yield.  The biggest producers of this harvest of beans are Paraná (24.4%), Ceará (12.8%) and Minas Gerais (12.8%). The 2nd national harvest of beans is estimated at 1,474,853 metric tons, which represents increase of 11.3% in comparison with 2013.  In Paraná, the biggest national producer in the 2nd harvest as well, field investigations point to an area to be planted with beans of about 269,963 ha, and an expected output of 518,332 metric tons of this product, with estimates above those of the previous month by 2.3% and 45.3%, respectively.

Cassava (roots) - The estimated output for cassava in 2014 is 23,375,192 metric tons, with increase of 10.3% in relation to 2013, reflecting increase of 4.2% in the harvested area and of 5.9% in the average yield. The Northeast Region, affected by droughts in 2012 and 2013, must recover with increase of 30.8% in production, 24.1% in the expected average yield and 5.4% in the area to be harvested. The highlights are: production figures in Ceará and Piauí, expected to increase by 102.1% and 100.8%, respectively. The North region, the main producer in the country, expects increase of 0.6% in production in 2014, with special highlight to the outputs of Amapá, Acre and Rondônia, which have increased 33.8%, 12.2% and 8.7% respectively. Pará, the main national producer, expects to produce 4,681,102 metric tons of roots, which corresponds to 20.0% of the national output.  in the Southeast Region, São Paulo, the main regional producer, expects an output of 1,053,900 metric tons.  In the South Region, the highlight is the output of Paraná, which is expected to reach 4,239,899 metric tons, with increase of production of 9.7% in relation to 2013, whereas average yield is expected to reach 23.4t/ha, the biggest in the country. The production of the Central West must reach 1,435,448 metric tons, 15.3% more than in 2013, the main highlights being the outputs of Goiás, which must reach 245,885 metric tons (+46.9) and Mato Gross do Sul expecting a harvest 840,000 metric tons (+16.4%).

Corn (grain)  - The first estimate for the 2014 harvest points to a production of 75.7 million metric tons, with a reduction of 6.0% in relation to the previous year. The decrease is equivalent to 4.8 million metric tons, and, probably, mainly due to the fall of the 2nd harvest.  The fall of corn prices in the second quarter of 2013 was influenced by the big production of 2nd crop corn. Besides, the good prices reached by soybeans influenced the producer's decision to choose soybeans in place of corn - 1st crop, which is harvested in the same period. These factors reduced the incentive to some possible producers of corn in 2014, resulting in decrease of 3.7% in total area, corresponding to 581,303 hectares, and decrease of average yield by 4.9%, as a consequence of the low investment by producers.  As in the last two years, corn - 2nd crop is expected to account for a bigger part of the output: 55% versus 44.5% in the first crop, with an absolute difference of 8.4 million metric tons.  In terms of corn - 1st crop, the output was estimated at 33.7 million metric tons, with decrease of 1.5% in relation to 2013. That figure could have been higher, but was prevented by the increase of 4.0% in the area to be harvested, which resulted from the recovery of production in the Northeast Region (77.5%). In the last two years this region has been affected by severe drought. The South Region, the main producer of corn - 1st crop, presents decrease of 9.9%, because of the smaller planted area (13.2%), since many producers have chosen soybeans, a product with more attractive prices and easier to sell. Paraná alone, the main national 1st crop producer, presents decrease of 21.1%, which represents 1.5 million metric tons, with decrease of 205 088 hectares and decline of 23.4% in the area planted in the state. Concerning corn - 2nd crop, the state expects reduction of 1.5% in planted area, but only 2.0% in output. The average yield was estimated with increase of 9.5%, which can be changed in the coming surveys, because the planting of corn - 2nd crop has not started in most producing areas.  

Soybean grain - The first estimate of 2014 points to an output of 91,283,222 metric tons, which repesents increase of 11.7% in relation to 2013. With good prices, producers kept the planted area at 6.2%. In Mato Grosso, which accounted for 29.1% of the national harvest, there has been excess of rain in the most important area (medium North). There are reports of difficulty of harvest and advance of Asian rust.  The rise of the area of this crop in the state, in relation to the previous harvest is 548,172 hectares (6.9%).  In the five Major Regions of the country, there was increase of planting area and subsequent increase of production of legumes. However, in the North Region, there is an estimate of rising output percentage, due to the low productivity of 2013, caused mainly by the water deficit. 

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) is a monthly survey to forecast and monitor the harvest of the main agricultural products, whose information is obtained by means of the Municipal Commissions (COMEA) and/or Regional Commissions (COREA). The latter are consolidated at state level by the Agriculture Statistics Coordinating Groups (GCEA) and, later, evaluated at national level, by the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics (CEPAGRO). This Commission is formed by representatives from IBGE and from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA).

Due to Due to users’ needs of harvest data, the surveys relative to Cereals, Legumes and Oilseeds (cotton seed, peanut, rice, beans, castor beans, corn, soybean, oat, rye, barley, sunflower, sorghum, wheat and triticale) have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency of the Ministry of Agriculture (CONAB), a subdivision of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). That initiative is the result of a process (started in October, 2007) of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops.