In October 2013, the national industrial output expanded 0.6% over the immediately previous month in the seasonally adjusted series, after dropping 2.5% in July and registering positive changes of 0.2% in August and of 0.5% in September. Comparing with the same month last year in the seasonally unadjusted series, the overall industry advanced 0.9% in October 2013, recording the second consecutive positive figure in this type of comparison, though less intensely than that posted in the previous month (1.8%). In the cumulative index in the first ten months of 2013, the industrial activity rose 1.6% over the same period last year. By expanding 1.0% in October 2013, the annualized rate, cumulative indicator in the last 12 months, virtually repeated the figure registered in the previous month (1.1%).

The complete publication of the survey can be accessed on page www.ibge.gov.br/english/estatistica/indicadores/industria/pimpfbr/.

21 out of 27 sectors surveyed record growth in October

The expansion of 0.6% in the industrial activity between September and October pointed to a widespread profile of positive rates, encompassing three out of the four categories of use and the majority (21) of the 27 sectors surveyed. Among the activities, the main positive influences were: publishing, printing and reproduction of recorded media (13.1%), machinery and equipment (2.7%), oil refining and ethanol production (2.2%) and mining and quarrying industries (2.0%). As a result, the first sector offset the decline of 11.3% posted in the previous month; the second registered the highest expansion since last June (3.3%); the third offset part of the loss of 4.7% in the months of August and September; and the last sector recorded the seventh consecutive positive rate, posting a growth of 7.9% in this period. Other relevant positive contributions to the overall industry came from toiletries, soaps, detergents and cleaning products (5.6%), fabricated metal products (2.8%), electrical machinery and apparatus (3.4%), office machinery and computer equipment (5.2%) and communication equipment, apparatus and electronic material (3.4%). Among the six activities that reduced the production, the most important performances to the overall average were motor vehicles (-3.1%), which offset part of the gain of 9.2% between August and September, beverages (-5.9%), other chemicals (-2.2%) and food (-0.6%).

As to the categories of use, still comparing with the immediately previous month, semi and non-durable consumer goods posted the most significant expansion in October 2013. By rising 1.0%, it offset part of the loss of 3.8% registered between July and September. The sectors producing capital goods (0.6%) and intermediate goods (0.3%) also grew this month. Both of them registered the third positive figure in a row, recording a cumulative increase of 6.9% and of 1.0% in this period, respectively. The manufacturing of durable consumer goods (-0.6%) was the only one to decline in October 2013, offsetting part of the gain of 2.4% between August and September.

Quarterly moving average changes 0.4%

Still concerning the seasonally adjusted series, the evolution of the quarterly moving average index for the overall industry pointed to a positive change of 0.4% in the quarter ended in October against the level of the previous month, interrupting the downward trend started last June. Among the categories of use, still in relation to this index on the margin, capital goods (2.2%) recorded the highest expansion in October 2013 and maintained the string of positive figures since last August. The segments of durable consumer goods (0.6%) and of intermediate goods (0.3%) also posted positive rates this month, the former reverting three month of drop and the latter registering the highest advance since October last year (0.4%). The sector producing semi and non-durable consumer goods (-0.3%) recorded the only negative figure this month, though less intense than that reported last September (-1.3%).

Industrial output rises 0.9% compared with October 2012

The industrial sector rose 0.9% in October 2013 compared with the same month last year. Positive figures prevailed, once the majority (17) of the 27 activities increased the production. It is worth mentioning that October 2013 (23 days) had one more business day than the same month last year (22). Among the activities, machinery and equipment (11.4%) exerted the highest positive influence on the industry average, mainly leveraged by the increased manufacturing of motor graders, forklift trucks, machinery and equipment for the pulp sector, wheel loaders, machining centers for metal manufacturing, farm tractors, harvesters and elevators for transporting people. Other relevant positive contributions to the overall industry came from oil refining and ethanol production (5.1%), other transportation equipment (11.8%), motor vehicles (2.4%), toiletries, soaps, detergents and cleaning products (12.7%), miscellaneous manufacturing (27.4%), office machinery and computer equipment (12.7%) and fabricated metal products (5.4%). As to the products, the most important positive influences over these sectors were, respectively, motor gasoline and diesel oil and other fuel oils; planes and motorcycles; tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers and trucks; toothpastes, body deodorants, hair shampoos, detergents and colognes; coins, ball point pens, rollers for painting, pencils, toothbrushes, brooms, brushes for painting and soccer balls; personal computers, video displays for computers and parts and accessories for computer equipment; and aluminum tubular containers, iron and steel screws, hooks, iron pins and nuts and iron and steel sinks, vats and wash basins. Among the nine activities that decreased the production, still comparing with October 2012, the main impacts were registered in pharmaceuticals (-17.9%), beverages (-10.4%), food (-2.4%), basic metals (-3.5%) and mining and quarrying industries (-3.0%), pressed in large extent by items medicines; soft drinks, beers and draft beer; crystallized sugar, concentrated orange juices, ice creams, popsicles and demerara sugar; carbon and special steel ingots, blocks and rods, carbon steel rebars, and non-alloy aluminum in raw forms; and iron ores, respectively.

By expanding 18.8% in October 2013 against the same month last year, capital goods recorded the seventh consecutive month of two-digit growth and the only positive rate among the categories of use this month. On the other hand, negative figures were observed in durable consumer goods (-3.2%), semi and non-durable consumer goods (-0.7%) and intermediate goods (-0.7%).  By increasing 18.8% in October 2013, the sector producing capital goods recorded the tenth positive figure in a row over the same month a year ago. It is worth mentioning the low basis for comparison, once this segment declined 5.1% in October 2012. As to the contribution to the index this month, this segment was influenced by the growth of all its groups. By expanding 15.1%, capital goods for transportation equipment clearly stood out, leveraged at a large extent by the increased manufacturing of the items tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers, trucks, planes and trailers and semi-trailers. The other positive figures were recorded by capital goods for industrial use (20.4%), for construction (58.5%), for mixed use (7.8%), for agriculture (21.0%) and for electric energy (6.7%).

By declining 3.2% in October 2013 in relation to the same month a year ago, the segment of durable consumer goods posted the most intense drop among the categories of use this month. This segment was pressed at a large extent by the decreased manufacturing of cars (-9.1%), mobile telephones (-13.2%), white goods (-2.3%), other household appliances (-1.8%) and furniture (-1.7%). On the other hand, this category of use was positively impacted by the manufacturing of brown goods (25.1%) and of motorcycles (35.5%).

By dropping 0.7% in the monthly index of October 2013, the sector producing semi and non-durable consumer goods registered the third consecutive negative figure in this type of comparison, though less intensely than the indexes of August (-1.3%) and September (-1.7%). The performance this month was mostly explained by the reduced manufacturing of the groups of food and beverages for domestic consumption (-3.9%) and of other non-durable (-2.5%), mainly pressed by the decreased manufacturing of soft drinks, beers, draft beer and concentrated orange juice in the former subsector, and of medicines, newspapers and books in the latter. Conversely, the positive influences were reported in the groups of fuels (11.6%) and of semi-durable (4.4%), leveraged, above all, by the increased production of motor gasoline and women´s leather and synthetic footwear, respectively.

After expanding 0.5% in the monthly index of September, the segment of intermediate goods (-0.7%) returned to drop in October. Considering the figures this month, the negative impacts were reported in the products associated with the activities of food (-8.0%), basic metals (-3.5%), mining and quarrying industries (-3.1%) and motor vehicles (-1.7%), whereas the positive influences came from fabricated metal products (5.6%), other chemicals (1.4%), non-metallic mineral products (2.3%), oil refining and ethanol production (1.0%), textiles (1.8%) and pulp, paper and paper products (0.4%). Still concerning this category of use, it is worth mentioning the positive figures coming from the groups of inputs for civil construction (4.1%) and of packaging (1.5%), both of them registering the second month in a row of growth.

Industry advances 1.6% in the cumulative index in 2013

The industrial sector grew 1.6% in the cumulative index for the first ten months of 2013 over the same period a year ago. Three out of the four categories of use, 16 out of the 27 sectors, 45 out of the 76 subsectors and 51.4% of the 755 products surveyed reported positive rates. By advancing 10.3%, the activity of motor vehicles remained exerting the highest positive influence on the industry average. Leveraged at a large extent by the expanded manufacturing of most products surveyed in this sector (approximately 71%), the highlights were the increased production of tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers, trucks, cars, vehicles for transportation of goods and trailers and semi-trailers. Other relevant positive contributions to the overall industry came from the sectors of oil refining and ethanol production (7.4%), machinery and equipment (6.8%), other transportation equipment (7.6%), electrical machinery and apparatus (5.3%) and rubber and plastic products (2.8%). In terms of products, the most important positive pressures in these sectors were, respectively, diesel fuel and other fuel oils, automotive gasoline and ethanol; machinery and equipment for the pulp sector, forklift trucks, motor graders, ball bearings for industrial equipment, air conditioners, farm tractors and harvesters; planes; wires, cables and electrical conductors, boards, panels, cabins and other mountings equipped with electrical devices for interruption or for voltage protection and optical fiber cables for use in telecommunications; and car, bus and truck tires. Among the ten activities that reduced the production, the main impacts came from publishing, printing and reproduction of recorded media (-10.2%), pharmaceuticals (-9.1%), mining and quarrying industries (-4.4%), basic metals (-2.8%) and beverages (-2.8%). The decreased manufacturing of items books, newspapers and magazines stood out in the first activity; medicines in the second; iron ores and crude petroleum oil in the third; non-alloy aluminum in raw forms, carbon steel rebars, carbon steel ingots, blocks, rods or plates and aluminum oxide in the fourth; and soft drinks, beers and draft beer in the last one.

As to the categories of use, the cumulative index in the period January-October 2013 showed higher dynamism for capital goods (14.9%). Leveraged by positive indexes along all of its groups, the highlight was the increased manufacturing of capital goods for transportation equipment (21.6%). By rising 1.6%, the sector producing durable consumer goods expanded at the same level of the overall average, influenced at a great extent by the increased manufacturing of cars (1.5%) and brown goods (12.2%). The production of intermediate goods (0.1%) pointed to a slight positive change, while that of semi and non-durable consumer goods (-0.2%) registered the only negative figure in the cumulative index of the year.