The Producer Price Index (IPP) changed 0.62% in September, versus the August 2013 figure, with a result below that recorded between August 2013 and July 2013 (1.43%). The cumulative indicator of 2013 reached 4.91%. The cumulative index in 12 months was 5.86%, lower than in August (5.92%).

IPP measures the evolution of “factory gate” prices, excluded taxes or freight, for 23 manufacturing industry sectors. The complete publication is available at https://www.ibge.gov.br/english/estatistica/indicadores/precos/ipp/default.shtm.

13 of the 23 activities surveyed recorded prices rises

In September 2013, 13 of the 23 activities surveyed had positive changes of price over those in August , versus 22 relative to the previous month. The four biggest changes occurred in beverages (3.1%), printing (-2.92%), wood (-2.38%) and tobacco (-2.23%). The most influential items were food products (0.32 percentage points), petroleum refining and alcohol production (0.13 p.p), other chemicals (0.11 p.p) and beverages (0.10 p. p.).

The cumulative indicator in the year (September/2013 versus December/2012) reached 4.91%, versus 4.26% in August 2013. Among the activities with the biggest percent changes, the highlights were tobacco (10.34%), textiles (8.16%), basic metals (7.22%) and footwear and leather articles (7.08%). In this indicator, the sectors accounting for the main contributions were food products (1.20 percentage points), other chemicals (0.69 percentage points), basic metals (0.55 percentage points), and petroleum refining and alcohol products (0.47 percentage points).

The cumulative indicator in 12 months (September/2013 versus September/2012) showed price changes of 5.86% versus 5.92% in August. The four biggest price changes were those of tobacco (13.54%), other chemicals (10.22%), pulp and paper (10.11%) and metal products (8.91%). The main contributions came from food products (1.15 percentage points), other chemicals (1.10 percentage points), petroleum refining and alcohol production (0.69 percentage points) and basic metals (0.60 percentage points).  

Food products: in September, the prices of food products changed, on average, 1.58%, with a result below those of the three preceding months (June, 2.29%; July, 2.61%; and August, 3.20%) and bigger than those between January (-1.52%) and May (1.44%). The cumulative change in the year was 5.95%. The comparison with September 2013 shows that the previous prices were 5.63% above those in 2012. In terms of this indicator, the result of September, although bigger than those recorded between May (4.00%) and July (3.58%), are lower than those registered between January (13.22%) and April (5.83%). 

In the month, differently from before, there was rise of the Brazilian currency (3.0%) in relation to the dollar. That alone explains the negative contribution of "concentrated orange juice", but not the performance of other products. Among the items featuring as the major contributions, the situation in September is not very different from that observed in August: the market of "soybean residue extraction", at a time when the USA were starting to harvest the grains and Brazil, to plant them, still maintains the stimulated demand; the price of wheat rose, despite the high value of the dollar, mainly because the Brazilian output was below estimates in terms of amount and quality (and that demands a bigger amount of the better quality product). Finally, in terms of "fresh or chilled poultry and giblets", the market shows that, due to the low prices charged in preceding months, there was decrease of the supply of this product, and a subsequent rise of its price. 

Beverages: in comparison with August 2013, beverage prices rose 3.61%, the biggest result since September 2012 (4.60%) and the highest rate among the sectors of manufacturing industry. As a result, the sector recorded increase of 6.34% until September. In 12 months, the rate reached 6.55%. Most of the price rises in this sector came from the adjustment of beer, which repeats the same performance as in September 2012, suggesting a change in the price policy of this sector, with price rises occurring in September, and no longer in November or December as it sused to be.

Petroleum refining and alcohol production: : the activity recorded change of 1.16% in September in relation to August 2013, following a positive trend recorded since July. The cumulative index in the year rose 4.25%. In a comparison with the result of the month on month indicator, September recorded 6.37%.

In terms of contribution, in September versus August, the four products which mainly affected this indicator accounted for 1.14 percentage points of 1.16% in al the sector, all of them with positive performances and related to perroleum refining. The exception is "ethyl alcohol", which recorded lower levels to those in the previous year for the second consecutive month. The highlight from the perspective of products related to petroleum refining was naphthas, as a result of the acceleration of prices of this commodity in growing markets, a situation that has been occurring since July. As a complement to the aforementioned highlights, "diesel and other fuel oils" and "querosene" have followed similar paths in the last few months.

Other chemical products : chemical industry recorded average chage of prices in September (0.98%) over August, the fourth consecutive month with rise of prices in this sector. The cumulative index in the year recorded 6.21%, whereas in the September 2013/September 2012 comparison, the rate was 10.22%.

Regarding figures in the September/August comparison, the four products come from three different groups, all with a positive performance. From organic chemistry, there are "ethylene" and "propene". Similarly to basic petrochmicals, these products are strongly influenced by naphtha prices, which have recorded positive levels for three months. After deceleration of prices of this category since the last quarter of 2012, the third quarter recorded increase. Agricultural defensives were affected by "herbicides". Finally, the group of resins and elastomers was represented by "polyethelene". Together, the four products amounted to 0.92 percentage points.

Basic metals: in September 2013, basic metals recorded negative change of 0.03% in relation to August 2013, after six omnths with rising results. In spite of that, the sector accumulated until September rise of 7.22% and recorded prices 7.78% higher than those in the same month a year before, representing, in the last two cases, the biggest changes since the start of this IPP series.

Among the main influences on the September over August results, there were two main changes ("carbon steel ingots, rods or plates" and ""carbon steel wires") and there are two new ones ("carbon steel wire" and "carbon steel rebars").

The percentage of change of prices of this sector in September over August shows subtle recovery of prices in the current year, even with the national production in decline and the excess of world demand, mainly due to the new taxing laws in effecgt since the beginnning of the year and the favorable currency value.

Motor vehicles in September 2012: in September 2013, the prices of this activity recorded posittive change of 0.31%, above that of August, 0.16%. This way, the cumulative index in the year recorded positive change of 2.55%. The comparison with September 2012 shows the activity changed positively by 2.84%, versus change of 1.76%, also positive in August. In 2013, except for March. whenever the month-on-month index waa negative, there was rise of prices in all the other months.