The complete publication can be accessed at www.ibge.gov.br/english/estatistica/indicadores/agropecuaria/lspa

Among the Major Regions, the volume of production presents the following distribution: Central-West Region, 78.7 million tonnes; South, 72.0 million tonnes; Southeast, 19.6 million tonnes; Northeast, 12.1 million tonnes; and North, 4.6 million tonnes. In comparison with the last harvest, there were increases of 11.1% in the Central-West, 30.4% in the South, 1.9% in the Southeast and 1.5% in the Northeast. In the North, there was a decrease of 3.2%. In the 2013 revision, Mato Grosso led as the main national producer of cereals, with a contribution of 24.6%.

Among the 26 selected products, 15 presented positive percentage changes in the production estimate in relation to the previous year: peanuts in the shell - 1st crop (12.5%), paddy rice (2.7%), potato -1st crop (2.5%), potato - 2nd crop (7.9%), cacao nut (2.4%), sugarcane (6.9%), barley grain (6.9%), bean seeds -2nd crop (18.8%), bean seeds - 3rd crop (4.2%), corn grain 1st crop (3.3%), corn grain 2nd crop (21.9%), soybean grain (23.8%), sorghum grain (0.7%), wheat grain (10.3%) and triticale grain (3.7%). There were eleven products with a negative change: upland cottonseed (31.4%), peanut in the shell 2nd crop (13.2%), oat grain (4.6%), potatoes 3rd crop (10.7%), coffee beans (arabica) (4.5%), coffee beans (canephora) (14.2%), onions (3.2%), bean seeds 1st crop (8.6%), oranges (14.6%), castor beans (42.1%) and cassava (10.6%).

The most significant increases, in absolute numbers, in comparison with the 2012 crop, were posted by: sugarcane, soybeans, corn and wheat. In the annual comparison, the biggest negative changes in absolute numbers were registered by cassava, upland cotton, oranges.

Highlights in the estimate of September against August

In the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production of September, the highlights in terms of production estimate changes are: oat (-11.8%), potatoes 2nd crop (3.1%), potatoes 3rd crop (6,5%), sugarcane (-3.1%), onions (4.1%), beans 1st crop (-1.6%), beans 2nd crop (-0.2%), beans 3rd crop (1.6%), orange (-9.4%), corn 2nd crop (0.2%), and wheat (-5.4%).

OAT (grain) – September's survey in Paraná registered that white oat crops are 35% harvested. Planting revisions in Paraná estimate a final average yield of 1,084 Kg/ha and, consequently, a production of 68,622 t, approximately 43.9% lower than the figure estimated in the previous month. This is attributable to the frosts occurred in the end of August, which reduced the average estimated yield in 44.2%. Rio Grande do Sul, which expects to produce more than 80% of the oat in Brazil this year, has a forecast of rise in the production, due to the increase in the planting area and to the favorable weather, according to the revisions in the latest month.

POTATOES – The planted area in September 2013 was estimated in 126,881 hectares. The national harvest must achieve 3,532,457 metric tons, a 2.3% growth in relation to August's data. The production is spread over three crops; the first and most important might contribute with 47.0%. The second crop might contribute with 32.2% and the third one, with 20.8%. In September, the largest changes in the production of potatoes over the prior month were posted by the second (+3.1%) and third crops (+6.5%). The production of the second crop is concentrated in Minas Gerais (38.0%), Paraná (26.5%) and São Paulo (21.0%); the other states contribute with 14.5% to the national overall. In São Paulo, this month the planted area grew 24.9%, whereas the estimated production rose 27.9%.

The participation growth of the second and third crops results from the good prices of potatoes throughout the year, especially in the planting of the third crop, when the product reached its highest price, being considered one of the greatest inflation villains. Currently, the price is back to the levels considered normal, due to the product supply.

SUGARCANE – The estimate for the national production of sugarcane in September was 716.8 million metric tons, a 3.1% reduction, mainly because of the revisions of the harvested area in São Paulo. Major national producer, accounting for more than half of the country's production, the sate’s harvested area and its production decreased 7.8% e 7.2%, respectively. In Goiás, the 14.8% increase in the area to be harvested is attributable to the new investments in the state. As a result, production rose 12.0%. In the Northeast, Bahia e Pernambuco presented production increments of 5.9% and 4.9%, respectively, as a major consequence of the largest planted area. Conversely, Rio Grande do Norte, Paraíba and Ceará posted decrease in the production due to the smaller area to be harvested and the lowest productivity of the sugarcane fields, which were stroke by droughts for the second year in a row.

ONIONS – The estimate for the national production of onions in September was of 1.4 million metric tons, a 4.1% increment in relation to the previous year. Santa Catarina, the main producer, responsible for 32.9% of the national crop, presents a 10.0% growth in relation to the previous month, due to the largest yield of the crops (8.4%). They benefited from good weather conditions which provided a good development for the culture. The good prices practiced in the market led to a 8.2% growth in the planted area in Minas Gerais, which reached a total of 3.034 hectares. The culture is practically entirely irrigated and uses high technology with system of high density no-till, which made high productivity possible (56,338 kg/ha), almost two-folding the national average of 25,484 kg/ha.

BEANS (seeds) - The estimate for the national production of beans, considering the three crops, was at 2,946,358 metric tons, 0.4% lower than the one reported in August. The Northeast was the major responsible for the negative revision in relation to the previous survey. The decrease was of 3.4%, representing 17,753 metric tons.  Beans 1st crop contributed with 37.8% to the national production of bean seeds, the 2nd crop, with 45.1% and the 3rd, with 17.1%.

BEAN (seeds) 1st crop – Its production was estimated in 1,113,142 metric tons, down 1.6% over August. The Northeast, very affected by droughts, was the main responsible for the reduction in the estimate in this survey. The most significant reductions come from Rio Grande do Norte (4.6%), Ceará (10.6%) and Paraíba (37.6%). In the Southeast, São Paulo informed a reduction of 6.3% in the production forecast.

BEANS (seeds) 2nd crop - The estimated production was of 1,327,827 metric tons, recording a 0.2% decrease over August. This contraction is explained, at a large extent, by the figures in Ceará (-6.9%), Paraíba (-12.4%) and Bahia (-1.6%). In Pernambuco, due to constant rainfalls in the Agreste, there was a higher expectation for the production (3.4%).

BEAN (seeds) 3rd crop – The estimated production of 505,389 metric tons, for this third planting period is 1.6% higher than August's. Goiás is the major responsible for the increase, with a production estimate 6.7% above August's.

ORANGE – A production of 16.343.196 t of orange was estimated (400.6 million boxes of 40.8 kg), down 9.4% August's crops. The estimated area to be harvested decreased 1.5% and total area, 5.9%. The average yield decreased 8.0%. São Paulo, the biggest producer, with 72.7% of contribution to the national production, must produce 11,873,426 t (291.0 million boxes), 12.2% less than in August. The year 2013 still reflects the losses in the citriculture in São Paulo, mainly in 2012. Last year, the flow reduction of stocks made things difficult for the trading of fruits, which, in some cases, got rotten in the orchards. The European Market crisis and the sanctions imposed by the USA, major buyer of the Brazilian juice, are referred to as responsible for the losses of the national citriculture. Oranges closed September, in São Paulo, at R$ 7,66/box (for the industry). This price was considered low by producers. There is strong evidence of orchards' elimination - a reflex of the hard period citriculture goes through nowadays, mainly oranges for juice.

TOTAL CORN (grain) – According to September's survey, the production estimate of corn grain was of 80,730,217 metric tons (taken both crops), keeping the estimate of a record crop. Out of the total amount of production, 34.3 million metric tons (42.5%) are 1st crop corn and 46.4 million metric tons (57.5%) are 2nd crop corn. This is the second consecutive year in which the 2nd crop production is bigger than the 1st. Producers invested in 2nd crop corn, because it presented good market prices at the moment of the planting decision. Moreover, it is a culture that, in terms of production, does very well after soybeans and is technically indicated for this planting season.

CORN (grain) 1st crop – Only the sates of the Northeast Region did present relevant changes. The droughts harmed the Region's production, which is still posting reductions (-4.2%) according to the latest survey. This month, the states which contracted production were: Ceará (-9.0%), Rio Grande Do Norte (-3.5%), Paraíba (-16.3%), Pernambuco (-2.6%) and Bahia (-6.8%).

CORN (grain) 2nd CROP – The estimate for the production of corn 2nd crop in September presented an increase of 0.2% in relation to August's information. The good productivity was due to the good weather conditions, which coupled with the high technology used by the producers, improved the yield. Bahia, Goiás and Mato Grosso had their estimates increased in 3.9%, 1.7% and 0.8%, respectively. On the other hand, São Paulo and Paraná reduced the estimates by 6.4% and 0.6%, corresponding to 85,099 t and 63,008 t, respectively.

WHEAT (grain) – The national production expected for this year is of 4,830,818 metric tons, surpassing last year's in 10.3%. Last year crops were unusual (dry period), with a very low production. In Rio Grande do Sul, this year’s frosts harmed production. The loss was estimated in just 18,624 metric tons (-0.7%). Even so, compared to last year, the average yield is up 31.4%, which represents a production of 2,653,337 t. In Paraná, just 28.0% of the total area had been harvested by the time of the survey. Prices practiced in September range from R$ 48.50/54.00 for the 60 Kg sack. In September, estimated production dropped 12.5%. It is worth mentioning the last forecast of the average yields estimated for the culture (1,750 Kg/ha): it is 34.9% lower than that of 2012 (a very unfavorable year for production). The South Region expects to produce 95.0% of the national wheat  this year: 54.9% in Rio Grande do Sul, 35.6% in Paraná and 4.5% in Santa Catarina.

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) is a monthly survey to forecast and monitor the harvest of the main agricultural products, whose information is obtained by means of the Municipal Commissions (COMEA) and/or Regional Commissions (COREA). The latter are consolidated in state level by the Agriculture Statistics Coordinating Groups (GCEA) and, later, evaluated at national level, by the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics (CEPAGRO). This Commission is formed by representatives from IBGE and from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA).

To address the needs of users of harvest data, the surveys relative to Cereals, Legumes and Oilseeds have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency (Conab) of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA) as a sequence to a process of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops, which started in October of 2007.

The variables used in 2012, if necessary, can be rectified in September, according to the methodology of LSPA.