In July 2013, the seasonally-adjusted industrial output recorded decrease of 2.0% over the index of the previous month, and almost nulled the expansion (2.1%) recorded last June.

The comparison with the same month last year points to an output increase of 2.0%  the fourth positive rate in a row for this type of comparison.

As a result, considering the cumulative index of the first seven months of the year, there was decrease of 2.0% over the same period a year ago, and, consequently,  a repetition of the index recorded in the first semester.

The annualized rate, the cumulative indicator relative to the last 12 months, after changing by 0.6% in July 2013, has remained on an upward trend since December last year (-2.6%) and reached its highest level since November 2011 (0.7%).

The quarterly moving average index changed by -0.7%.

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The deceleration of the industrial activity in July 2013 (-2.0%) was widespread and reached most of (15) the 27 subsectors of industry and four categories of use. It is worth mentioning that the decrease observed this month in the industry overall, besides making up for the that recorded last June (2.1%), maintained the standard which characterizes the industrial output of 2013, with increase in some months followed by more significant decreases. Considering the June result, the industry overall was 3.6% below the record reached in May 2011. Also, in the seasonally-adjusted series, the signs of deceleration of industrial activity in the month were also clear in the evolution of the quarterly moving average index, which interrupted an upward trend in progress since last December. 

In comparison with equivalent periods in the previous year, the industrial output recorded expansion, and the quarterly moving average index of July 2013 recorded the fourth consecutive positive rate. The cumulative index relative to the first seven months of 2013 was another highlight, having advanced 2.0%. 

Among the 27 subsectors surveyed, 15 recorded decrease from June to July

The decrease of 2.0% in the industrial activity from June to July had a general profile, reaching all the categories of use and most of (15) the 27 activities surveyed. Among the subsectors, the main negative contributions came from motor vehicles (-5.4%) and pharmaceuticals(-10.7%), both nulling the advances recorded in the previous month: 1.8 and 10.0%, respectively. Other relevant negative contributions to the industry overall came from rubber and plastic(-4.5%), pulp, paper and paper products(-3.6%), food products (-1.4%), office machines and computer equipment (-9.4%), machinery and equipment (-1.6%), other transportation equipment (-3.3%), metallurgy (-1.8%) and other chemical products (-1.5%). It is worth mentioning that, except for the last sector, which recorded a negative rate for the second consecutive month, the other activities had positive results last June: 0.4%, 3.4%, 0.8%, 8.6%, 3.4%, 9.2% and 0.6%, respectively. On the other hand, among the 11 activities which recorded increase, the most significant performance n terms of the overall average was that of petroleum refining and alchol production (3.3%0, which recovered part of the loss if 4.% observed in the previous month. Also important are the increases of beverages(2.3%), electronic material, appliances and communication equipment(3.5%) and metal products (2.0%). 

Among the categories of use, also in comparison with the immediately previous month, durable consumer capital goods, having recorded 7.2%, accounted for the main decline in July 2013, eliminating, this way, the increase of 4.5% recorded last June. The segment of capital goods(-3.3%), which also fell at a level above the national average (-2.0%), returned part of the increase (6.5%) observed in the previous month. The sectors which produce semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (-1.5%) and itermediate goods(-0.7%) also recorded negative rates in the month, and the former eliminated part of the increase of 2.7% of June. The latter recorded the third negative rate in a row, in a period with cumulative loss of 1.8%. 

Quarterly moving average decreases 0.7% in July

Also in the series with seasonal adjustment, the evolution of the quarterly moving average index for the industry overall showed decrease of 0.7% in the quarter which ended in July over the previous month, interrupting the upward trend in progress since last December. Among the categories of use, also in relation to the marginal movement of this index, durable consumer goods (-1.1%) recorded the most significant decrease in July, after two months with consecutive positive results and cumulative increase of 3.6%. The segments of intermediate goods -0.6%) and capital goods (-0.2%) also had negative rates in the month. The former recorded an even lower rate than in the previous month (-0.3%); the latter interrupted a series of growing results in progress since last December. The production of semi-durable and non-durable consumer (0.2%) accounted for the only positive result in the month, but with lower intensity in comparison with the June index (1.0%). 

Industrial output grows 2.0% % in the comparison with July 2012

Over the same month a year ago, the industrial sector grew 2.0% in July 2013, with a predominance of positive results, since hree of the four categories of use and most of (18) the 27 activities surveyed recorded increase of output. It is worth mentioning that July 2013 (23 days) had one business day more than in the previous year (22): Among the activities, petroleum refining and alcohol production(10.2%), motor vehicles (4.3%), machinery and equipment(5.6%) and other transportation equipment(12.8%) accounted for the main positive influneces in the average of industry, mainly due to the expansion of diesel and other fuel oils, motor gasoline and ethyl alcohol, in the first one, tractor-trucks for trailers and semi-trailers, in the second, machinery and equipment for he pulp sector, forklifts, graders, harvesting machines agricultural tractors and air-conditioners, in the third, and airplanes and motorcycles, in the last one. Other relevant positive contributions top the national result came from electronic material and communication equipment and apparatus (9.1%), electrical machinery and apparatus (7.6%), meta products (5.3%) and medical and optical products, appliances and equipment and others (14.1%) In terms of products, the main positive influences in these subsectors were, respectively, televison sets and mobile telephones ; electric conductors, wires and cables, electric alarm apparatuses and frames, panels, booths and other structures equipped with voltage protection devices; aluminum cans for packages and shavers; and electricity consumption devices, watches and programmable logic controllers. On the other hand, also versus July 2012, among the eight activities which faced decline of production, the main impacts came from editing, printing and reproduction of recordings(-9.9%), pharmaceuticals(-8.4%) and mining and quarrying industry(-2.5%), mainly due to the items books and newspapers; medicines; and crude petroleum oil and aluminum ore, respectively. 

Also in the comparison with the same month in the previous year, capital goods, having increased 15.2% in July 2013, accounted for the fourth consecutive positive rate of two-digit numbers in the month among the categories of use. The segments of semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (2.9%), which also grew above the national average (2.0%), and intermediate goods(0.2%) also recorded positive results in July. On the other hand, the production of durable consumer goods, having decreased 1.6%, was the only decline in the month. 

The producers of capital goods, having increased 15.2% in July 2013, recorded the seventh consecutive positive result in the comparison with the same month in the previous year. Considering the formation of indexes in the month, the segment was influenced by the increase observed in most of its groups, the highlights being: the increase of 16.1% recorded by capital goods for trasnportation equipment, mainly affected by the bigger output of tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers, trucks, airplanes, buses and trailers and semi-trailers. The other positive results came from capital goods for industril use (13.3%), the fourth consecutive two-digit increase, for mixed use (5.9%), for agricultural use (38.4%) and for construction (19.0%), whereas the group capital goods for electricity (-2.6%) represented the only negative rate in the month. 

The performance of this month was influenced, to a great extent, by the expansion recorded by fuels (15.2%), due to the increased output of the items automotive gasoline and alcohol . The groups of food products and beverages elaborated for domestic consumption (3.4%) and semi-durables (8.7%) also pointed to positive results in July. The main highlight was the increased output of meats and poultry giblets, beer, draft beer, cookies and crackers , in the first subsector, and female footwear made of leather and synthetic material, cds and cotton bath towels, in the latter. On the other hand, the only negative index was that of other non-durable goods (-4.1%), mainly affected by the reduced output of the items books, newspapers and medicines

The producers of intermediate goods, with change of 0.2% in July 2013, recorded the second consecutive positive rate in the monthly index. In the month, positive highlights were observed in the products related to the following activities: petroleum refining and alcohol production (7.1%), metal products (6.4%), non-metallic minerals (1.3%), rubber and plastic (1.2%) and motor vehicles (0.3%), whereas negative contributoons came from food products (-7.8%), mining and quarrying industry (-2.5%), pulp, paper and paper products (-1.9%), metallurgy (-0.7%), textiles (-1.0%) and other chemical products (-0.1%). It is also worth mentioning the positive results which came from inputs for civil construction (3.8%), which recorded output increase, and packages (3.1%), which interrupted two months of negative results in this type of comparison. 

Also versus the same month a year ago, the segment of durable consumer goods, having decreased 1.6% in July 2013, interrupted a series of three months with consecutive positive rates, mainly due to the lower production of cars (-5.4%) and household appliances (-4.8%). It is important to highlight that, in the aforementioned group. the negative performance was mainly a contribution ofwhite goods (-2.8%) and other household appliances (-39.8%), since brown goods increased 16.1%. This category of use also recorded positive impacts on the production of motorcycles (56.0%), affected by the low basis for comparison in July 2012, once the production of this item fell 52.9% due to the the collective vacations granted by an important company of the sector, mobile telephones (8.9%) and furniture (1.9%). 

Cumulative index of the the first seven months increases 2.0%

The cumulative index of the first seven months of 2013, compared with the same period a year ago, reflected the increase of industrial production (2.0%), with positive rates the four categories of use, 14 of the 27 subsectors and 43 of the 76 subsectors and in 50.6% of the 755 products surveyed. Among the activities, motor vehicles, which grew 13.2%, remained as the main positive influence on the formation of the industry average, mainly due to the bigger production of most products surveyed in the sector (approximately 80%), the main highlights being the bigger production of tractor-trucks for trailers and semi-trailers, trucks, cars and vehicles foir the transportation of goods. There was influence of the low basis for comparison, since this sector decreased by 17.2% in terms of the cumulative in the first four months of 2012, due to the granting of collective vacation in several companies of the sector in the beginning of 2012. . Other positive constributions to the national index came from petroleum refining and alcohol production (8.9%), machinery and equipment (5.1%), other transportation equipment (8.0%), machines, appliances and electric material (7.7%) and rubber and plastic (4.9%). In terms of products, the positive impacts in these subsectrs were, respectively, diesel and other fuel oils, automotive gasoline and ethyl alcohol; machinery and equipment for the pulp sector, ball bearings for industrial equipment, air conditioners, forklifts and agricultural tractors; airplanes; electric conductors, wires and cables, electric alarm apparatuses and frames, panels, booths and other structures equipped with voltage protection devices; and tires for cars, buses and trucks, plastic adhesive tapes of strips and plastic and rubber accessories for motor vehicles . On the other hand, among the 11 subsectors which faced production decrease, the main impacts were those of editing, printing and reproduction of recorded media (-10.0%), mining and quarrying industry (-5.8%), metallurgy (-3.4%) and pharmaceuticals (-4.2%). In these activities, the highlights were: the smaller production of the items newspaper, magazines and books, in the firtst subsector, iron ore and crude petroleum oil in the second, non-alloy aluminum in raw forms, carbon steel ingots, blocks or plates and aluminum oxide, in the third and medicines, in the last one. 

Among the categories of use, the profile of results for the cumulative index of the January-July period in 2013 recorded more ecceleration in terms of capital goods(14.2%), mainly due to all the groups the main highlights beingcapital goods for transportation equipment (25.0%). The producer of durable consumer goods (3.9%) also recorded expansion above the national average (2.0%) in the first seven months of the year, mainly affected by the bigger production of cars (5.4%). It is worth mentioning that these two categories of use, besides the acceleration of industrial activity throughout the year, were also affected by the low basis for comparison, once in the period January-July 2012 recorded decreases of 12.0% and 8.4%, respectively. The segments of intermediate goods (0.4%) and of semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (0.1%) recorded slight positive increase in the cumulative index of the year.