The Brazilian population would grow up to 2042, when it should reach 228.4 million people. The population would gradually shrink from the following year onwards, reaching approximately 218.2 million in 2060.

This is one of the highlights of the publication "Population Projection of Brazil by Sex and Age for the Period 2000/2060 and Population Projection of the Federation Units by Sex and Age for the Period 2000/2030", released today on the Internet by IBGE.

In addition to population projections for Brazil and for the Federation Units, the publication includes projections for female fertility by age group, for mortality, for life expectancy at birth for Brazil and for the Federation Units, and for net international and domestic migration (immigrants less emigrants), among other indicators.

It is noticed, for example, that the average age in which women have children (26.9 years in 2013), should reach 28 years in 2020 and 29.3 years in 2030.

Life expectancy at birth should reach 80.0 years in 2041 and 81.2 years in 2060. As to the Federation Units, life expectancy in Santa Catarina should reach 80.2 years already in 2020. At this same year, Maranhão should be the state with the lowest life expectancy (71.7 years), yet reaching 74.0 years in 2030 and surpassing Rondônia and Piauí, whose life expectancy would be 73.8 and 73.4, respectively.

In terms of domestic migration balance, the projections indicate that Bahia, Maranhão, Rio Grande do Sul, Ceará, Alagoas, Piauí and Pernambuco should register the highest negative rates (biggest number of persons leaving the state) in 2020 and 2030, all of them above 10 thousand emigrants, maintaining the trend of the last decades. The projections indicate that the state of Bahia will continue to record the biggest population loss compared with the aforementioned states: -46.6 thousand and -39.3 thousand, respectively. On the other hand, Santa Catarina, São Paulo, Goiás, the Federal District and Espírito Santo should register the highest positive rates, all of them above 10 thousand immigrants. Santa Catarina should maintain the highest net migration rate: 37.1 thousand in 2020 and 34.3 in 2030. These trends are the same as those noticed along the last years.

The projections encompass the most recent information on the components of demographic growth (mortality, fertility and migration), extracted from the 2010 Population Census and from the administrative records of births and deaths. The current outcomes supersede those from "Population Projection of Brazil by Sex and Age: 1980-2050 - Revision 2008". This information provides an updated view of the demographic dynamics at national and state level, as well as a basis for future hypotheses for projections.

The evolution of the demographic components in the 2000/2030 period points to a significant aging process of the population in all the Federation Units. However, it is expected that there be important regional differentials in the age structure of the population in 2030. In 2027, Rio Grande do Sul would have more senior citizens than children, whereas Acre, Amazonas, Roraima and Amapá would still have approximately 30 senior citizens per 100 children, similar figures as those reported in the South and Southeast Regions in the mid 2000 decade.

The complete publication can be accessed on link

https://www.ibge.gov.br/english/estatistica/populacao/projecao_da_populacao/2013/default.shtm

IBGE also released today the estimates of resident population in the 5,570 Brazilian municipalities on the date of reference of July 1st, 2013. The population projections are vital for the estimate of economic and socio-demographic indicators in the intercensal periods and are, as well, one of the parameters used by the Brazilian Court of Audit in the distribution of the State and Municipal Revenue Sharing Fund. This annual release is pursuant to supplementary law no 59, of December 22, 1988 and to article 102 of law no 8443, of July 16, 1992. The table containing the population projected for each municipality was published in the Brazilian Official Gazette (D.O.U.)  today, August 29, 2013. The Brazilian law states that well-founded complaints may be submitted to IBGE within a maximum of 20 days after the publication of the estimates, and the Institute will make a conclusive decision on the matter. IBGE is expected to submit the definitive estimates to the Brazilian Court of Audit up to October 31. The results of the Population Estimates 2013, published in the D.O.U, can also be accessed on

https://www.ibge.gov.br/english/estatistica/populacao/estimativa2013/default.shtm

Population in 2060 to go back to the level of 2025

The population estimated for Brazil in 2013 was of 201.0 million inhabitants, reaching 212.1 million in 2020 and a maximum of 228.4 million in 2042, when it would shrink, reaching 218.2 in 2060, equivalent to the level estimated for 2025 (218.3 million).

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Average age in which women have children to reach 29.3 years in 2030

The expected reduction in the growth level of the population is mainly due to the drop of the average number of children per woman, which has been decreasing since the 1970s. The total fertility rate (average number of children per woman) estimated for 2013 is of 1.77 children per woman. In 2020, the projection is of 1.61 children and, in 2030, of 1.50 children.

In addition to the drop of the fertility level, it is expected that the age patterns of fertility by woman age also change. Actually, the aging of fertility in Brazil has already been occurring since the last decade. According to the projection, the average age in which women have children (26.9 years in 2013) should reach 28 years in 2020 and 29.3 years in 2030.

Acre should maintain the highest fertility rate in 2030: 1.75 children per woman

While some Federation Units registered fertility rates well above the national average in 2013 - like Acre, with 2.59 children on average per woman, Amazonas and Amapá, with 2.38 and 2.42 children on average per woman, respectively -, in 2030, the maximum fertility rates would be 1.75 children, on average, for Acre and 1.45 children for Minas Gerais, São Paulo, Santa Catarina, Rio Grande do Sul and the Federal District.

Life expectancy at birth for both sexes should reach 80.0 years in 2041

The projection indicates that life expectancy at birth, which reached 71.3 years for men and 78.5 years for women in 2013, should reach 78.0 and 84.4 years, respectively, in 2060. It represents a gain, on average, of 6.7 years of life for men and of 5.9 years for women. In 2041, the life expectancy at birth would reach 80.0 years of age for both sexes.

Dependency ratio should reach minimum value in 2022

The drop of fertility, combined with the increase in life expectancy, has been causing the accelerated aging of the Brazilian population. It is represented by the reduced proportion of children and youngsters and the increased proportion of senior citizens in the population.

Aging affects the dependency ratio of the population, which is the ratio between the economically dependent segments (below 15 and above 64 years of age) and the potentially productive segment (between 15 and 64 years of age), i.e., the proportion of the population that should be theoretically sustained by the economically productive portion.

Having recorded 46.0 in 2013 (i.e., each group of 100 working-age individuals should sustain 46 individuals), the dependency ratio should reach its minimum value in 2022 (43.3), when it would rise again, reaching the same level of 2013 in 2033, and then reaching 66.0 in 2060. Known as "demographic bonus" or "demographic window", the reduction of the dependency ratio provides Brazil with some opportunities due to a smaller portion of the population being sustained by the economically active group. Nevertheless, this "window" begins to close when the dependency ratio starts to rise. Previously consisting overwhelmingly of children, the major portion of the population to be sustained from now on consists of senior citizens. The percentage of the population aged 65 years and over would be 26.8% in 2060, whereas this percentage was 7.4% in 2013.

Santa Catarina should maintain the highest life expectancy at birth

Today, Santa Catarina is the state with the highest life expectancy at birth for both sexes. In the projections for the Federation Units, Santa Catarina should maintain this position, reaching 80.2 years already in 2020 and 82.3 years in 2030. Conversely, Maranhão would show the lowest life expectancy at birth in 2020: 71.7 years. Yet this position should be taken by Piauí in 2030, with 73.4 years.

Among men, the highest values of life expectancy estimated for 2030 would be noticed in Santa Catarina (79.1 years) and São Paulo (78.1 years). The lowest values should be in Piauí (68.8 years) and Pará (70.4 years). As to women, the highest values would also be reported in Santa Catarina (85.4 years), followed by Espírito Santo (84.7 years). Rondônia (77.2 years) and Roraima (77.5 years) would experience the lowest life expectancy rates for women.

Bahia should record the highest negative net migration and Santa Catarina, the highest positive

Migration tends to reduce in terms of migration balance (inbound immigrants less outbound emigrants). The projection indicates that Bahia should register the highest negative net migration in 2020 and 2030, -46.6 thousand and -39.3 thousand, respectively. In the same years, Maranhão, Rio Grande do Sul, Ceará, Alagoas, Piauí and Pernambuco would still  record expressive negative net migration, above 10 thousand emigrants. On the other hand, Santa Catarina, São Paulo, Goiás, the Federal District and Espírito Santo should register the highest positive rates, all of them above 10 thousand immigrants. Santa Catarina should lead the ranking with a net of 37.1 thousand immigrants in 2020 and 34.3 thousand in 2030.