The seventh estimate of the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds accounted for 187.9 million metric tons, 16.1% higher than that obtained in 2012 (161.9 million metric tons) and 1.2% bigger than June’s estimate (185.7 million metric tons). The area to be harvested in 2013, of 52.8 million hectares, presents an increase of 8.2% compared to the harvested area in 2012 (48.8 million hectares) and an increase of 195.451 hectares in relation to the previous month’s estimate (0.4%).

The three main cultures (rice, corn and soybeans), which altogether represent 92.1% of the production of cereals, legumes and oilseed, account for 85.9% of the area to be harvested. In relation to the previous year, there were area increases of 7.2% for corn, 11.2% for soybeans and a 0.6% decrease in the rice harvested area.  Concerning production, the rises were of 2.9% for rice, 12.2% for corn and 23.7% for soybeans in comparison with 2012. The complete publication is available at www.ibge.gov.br/english/estatistica/indicadores/agropecuaria/lspa.

Among the Major Regions, the volume of production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds showed the following distribution: Central-West, 77.7 million metric tons; South, 73.7 million metric tons; Southeast, 19.6 million metric tons; Northeast, 12.3 million metric tons and North, 4.6 million metric tons. The comparison with the last harvest registered increases of 9.8% in the Central-West Region, 33.5% in the South, 2.0% in the Southeast and 3.3% in the Northeast. On the other hand, the North Region decreased by 3.1%. Mato Grosso led the national production of grains with a contribution of 24.4%, followed by Paraná (20.2%) and Rio Grande do Sul (15.7%). These states together accounted for 60.3% of the national forecast:

July estimates in relation to the production of 2012

Among the 26 selected products, 16 increased the estimated production over 2012: peanuts in the shell - 1st crop (11.9%), paddy rice (2.9%), oat grain (19.8%), potatoes - 1st crop (2.5%), potatoes - 2nd crop (2.6%), cacao nuts (2.4%), sugarcane (10.3%), barley grain (10.3%), bean seed - 2nd crop (20.0%), bean seed - 3rd crop (11.0%), corn grain - 1st crop (3.8%), corn grain - 2nd crop (19.6%), soybean grain (23.7%), sorghum grain (23.2%), wheat grain (33.4%) and triticale grain (12.8%). Ten products registered negative changes: upland cottonseed (30.6%), peanuts in the shell - 2nd crop (11.9%), potatoes - 3rd crop (15.9%), coffee beans (arabica) (4.4%), coffee beans (canephora) (14.5%), onions (8.3%), bean seed - 1st crop (3.2%), oranges (5.6%), castor beans (41.2%) and cassava (9.5%). In absolute numbers, the most significant increases in the production compared with the 2012 harvest were: sugarcane, soybean and corn. Also in absolute numbers, the biggest negative changes in the annual comparison were: oranges, cotton and cassava.

Highlights of July estimates in relation to June

UPLAND COTTONSEED - Re-estimates in the states of Bahia, Mato Grosso and Goiás pointed to an increase of 1.8% in the expected national production, when compared with the June estimate. Ceará reduced by 15.5% its expected production. The production expected in Mato Grosso was of 1,797,704 metric tons, which meant a reduction of 35.9% against the production of 2012. Approximately 25% of the area of the culture had been harvested and the price was increasing in relation to that reported in the previous harvest. The average yield also increased in the west of Bahia, the region that concentrates the production in that state, which led to the improvement of the estimated production in this survey.

OAT GRAIN - The current estimate for the production of July 2013 was of 470,025 metric tons, in a planted area of 195,561 hectares and with an expected average yield of 2,403 kg/ha, respectively 6.3%, 1.1% and 5.1% bigger than the information from the previous month. Rio Grande do Sul expected a production of 302,063 metric tons, in a planted area of 131,496 ha and an average yield of 2,297 kg/ha, respectively 10.2%, 3.7% and 6.2% bigger than the information from the previous month. Paraná expected a production of 167,962 metric tons, in a planted area of 64,065 ha and an average yield of 2,622 kg/ha. Paraná´s estimates pointed to changes in the planted area (-3.9%) and in the average yield (4.0%) in relation to the previous month, though kept the expected production unchanged.

POTATOES - 3rd crop - The estimated production was of 692,319 metric tons, pointing  to an increase of 21.6% in relation to the June estimate. The planted area and the average yield should have increased 17.6% and 3.4%, respectively, in relation to the previous month. The figures were more influenced by the state of Goiás, which reported an increase of 193.5% in the area to be planted and of 187.9% in the estimated production, whereas the expected yield decreased 1.9%. Goiás is the second biggest producer of potatoes - 3rd crop, accounting for 27.2% of the overall production.

COFFEE BEANS - Compared with the June survey, the July figures showed few changes: increase of 0.1% in the expected production, decrease of 0.6% in the area to be harvested and increase of 0.7% in the average yield. Computing the two species, the national production of coffee was estimated in 2,850,081 metric tons (47.5 million 60 kg sacks). The national production of 2.202.403 metric tons (36.7 million 60 kg sacks) of COFFEA ARABICA represented an increase of 0.6% in relation to the June estimate. The average yield registered an increase of 0.3%. The total planted area increased 0.2% in relation to that reported in the previous month. The area to be harvested also recorded a slight increase of 0.3%. Bahia, Pernambuco, Espírito Santo and Paraná were the states that changed their estimates. The frosts on July 24 and 25 hit all the coffee plantations in Paraná. The production forecast for 2013 in Paraná was unchanged. As to COFFEA CANEPHORA in Espírito Santo, the biggest producer of this species, the estimated decrease of 1.1% in the expected production in July 2013 was attributed to the lack of rainfall during the period of grain filling and vegetative growth. The production in Espírito Santo was estimated in 488,168 metric tons (8.1 million 60 kg sacks) and the overall production, in 647,678 metric tons (10.8 million 60 kg sacks).

BEAN SEED - Considering the three crops, the estimated overall production of beans was of 3,059,748 metric tons, 3.5% bigger than that reported in June. By increasing 17.5% in relation to the previous survey, the Northeast region was the main responsible for this positive estimate. The Central-West and Southeast regions also increased the estimated production in 19,313 and 15,178 metric tons, respectively, against the previous survey. The first crop of bean contributed with 38.5% of the national production of bean seed, the second crop contributed with 43.9% and the third crop, with 17.6%. The estimated production of bean seed - 2nd crop was of 1,341,882 metric tons, recording an increase of 5.6% over June. This increase was mainly due to the changing figures of Pernambuco (47.6%) and Bahia (60.3%). The expected production of bean seed - 3rd crop was of 538,367 metric tons, 7.5% bigger than that reported in June. The increase of the planted area was estimated in 9.1% and the decrease of the average yield, in 1.5%, in relation to the previous survey.

CASSAVA - The estimate of the production of cassava in 2013 was of 21,178,686 metric tons, pointing to a drop of 1.3% over June. The total planted area, the area to be harvested and the average yield were decreasing 1.5%, 0.5% and 0.7%, respectively, this month. The effects of the drought started in 2012 still persisted in some states of the Northeast, causing the reduction of 2.9% in the planted area and of 3.0% in the average yield. The expected production was of 4,850,738 metric tons, 2.9% smaller than the previous report. The estimated production dropped 15.9% in Rio Grande do Norte, 12.1% in Pernambuco, 9.8% in Maranhão and 2.0% in Ceará. Accounting for 35.1% of the cassava produced in Brazil, the estimated harvest in the North region fell 1.4% over June, due to the reduced production in Amazonas (12.6%) and Pará (0.2%). In the South and Central-West regions, the estimated production of cassava recorded a negative change of 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively, whereas the estimate was virtually unchanged in the Southeast.

CORN GRAIN - According to the July survey, the total estimated production of corn grain was of 80,013,394 metric tons, 2.3% bigger than that reported in the previous month, leading to an expected record. The growth was due to the increase of 2.3% in the average yield, once the planted and harvested areas did not record any significant change in July. As to the expected production, 34.5 million metric tons (43.1%) were of corn - 1st crop and 45.5 million metric tons (56.9%) were of corn - 2nd crop. The production of corn - 1st crop did not significantly change in the July survey. Only the North and Northeast regions stood out in terms of changes. The estimated production of corn - 2nd crop was of 45,538,120 metric tons, pointing to an increase of 4.1% in relation to the estimate reported in June. Both the planted area and the area to be harvested increased 0.3%. The expected average yield  increased 3.8% due to good weather conditions, as well as to the high technologies that are being used in the crops.

WHEAT GRAIN - The estimated production for July was of 5,844,709 metric tons, in a planted area of 2,135,106 hectares and with an expected average yield of 2,737 kg/ha, respectively  5.2%, 3.2% and 1.9% bigger than the information from the previous month. When compared with the 2012 harvest, the above estimates changed positively in 33.4%, 11.2% and 18.2%, respectively. As the biggest producer and accounting for 95.2% of the national production, the South region expected a production of 5,564,169 metric tons, in a planted area of 2,048,165 ha and with an expected average yield of 2,717 kg/ha, respectively 4.4%, 2.8% and 1.6% bigger than those reported in the previous month. Paraná, the biggest national producer (45.8%), expected a production of 2,674,408 metric tons, in an estimated area of 940,990 ha and with an expected average yield of 2,842 kg/ha, respectively 27.4%, 21.1% and 5.2% bigger than those figures from the previous harvest. Conversely, production and average yield are respectively 0.3% and 3.1% smaller than those reported in June.

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) is a monthly survey to forecast and monitor the harvest of the main agricultural products, whose information is obtained by means of the Municipal Commissions (COMEA) and/or Regional Commissions (COREA). The latter are consolidated in state level by the Agriculture Statistics Coordinating Groups (GCEA) and, later, evaluated at national level, by the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics (CEPAGRO). This Commission is formed by representatives from IBGE and from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA).

Due to users’ needs of harvest data, the surveys relative to Cereals, Legumes and Oilseeds (cotton seed, peanuts, rice, beans, castor beans, corn, soybeans, oat, rye, barley, sunflower, sorghum, wheat and triticale) have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency of the Ministry of Agriculture (CONAB), a subdivision of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). That initiative is the result of a process, started in July 2007, of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops.