Among the Major Regions, the produced volume of cereals, legumes and oilseeds presents the following distribution: South Region, 71.9 million metric tons; Central-West, 71.4 million metric tons; Southeast, 19.4 million metric tons; Northeast Region, 16.4 million metric tons; and North Region, 4.3 million metric tons.  Compared with figures in the previous harvest, there were increments in the Southeast (1.2%), Central West (0.9%), South (29.6%) an Northeast (37.7%).  In the North Region, there was decrease of 9.3%.  Among the Federation Units, Mato Grosso is the leader of this second evaluation as the main national producer of grains, with 23.4%, followed by Paraná, with 20.1% and Rio Grande do Sul, with 15.6%. Together, these states represent 59.1% of the national total.

Due to the agricultural calendar, it is not yet possible to evaluate the production of second and third harvests of some products, as well as of winter crops (wheat, oats, rye, barley and triticale).  Therefore, the data presented here are projections based on data from previous years.

February estimate for 2013 in relation to the output reached in 2012

Among the twenty six products selected, nineteen recorded positive change in the output estimate in relation to the previous year: 1st harvest peanuts in husk (6.5%), 2nd harvest peanuts in husk (3.2%), paddy rice (4.9%), oats in grain (0.7%), 1st harvest potatoes (4.7%), 3rd harvest potatoes (19.2%), coffee beans – canephora (1.5%), sugarcane (9.4%), onions (2.2%), barley in grain (22.9%), 1^st harvest beans (29.2%), 2^nd harvest beans in grain (14.6%), 3rd harvest beans (0.7%), castor beans in segment (209.1%), cassava (0.6%), 1^st harvest corn (8.9%), soybeans in grain (26.8%), wheat in grain (12.4%) and triticale in grain (4.5%). Seven products recorded negative changes: upland cotton (seed) (26.9%), 2nd harvest peanuts in shell (1.6%), cacao beans (5.3%), coffee beans – arabica (6.1%), oranges (14.3%), 2^nd harvest corn in grain (0.1%), sorghum grain (5.2%). 

February estimate in relation to 2013

The highlights in the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production in February, in terms of monthly changes in production estimate versus January results, were: total peanuts (16.6%), sugarcane (3.2%), total coffee (2.2%), soybeans in grain (0.4%), total corn (0.3%), cassava roots (-4.7%), sorghum in grain (-7.1%), total beans (-9.2%), and orange (-11.7%). 

PEANUTS (in husk) – In relation to January, the national production of peanuts, considering the two harvests, is estimated at 344,795 t. This output presents increase of 16.6%, concentrated in São Paulo, the biggest national producer. The state presents decrease of 19.5% in production over the previous estimate and represents 86.4% of the national output. 

The good phase of Brazilian peanut production in 2013 has to do with the renewal of sugarcane areas, made available after the conclusion of harvesting in the end of 2012, with the relatively dry climate of São Paulo in the month of February, time for the harvesting of the 1st harvest of peanuts, and with the receptivity of the product in Europe, a traditional importer. The main producer of peanuts in São Paulo is Alta Paulista (Tupã and its surroundings), with a top-quality product. Current availability of areas and good external prices were the two main factors accounting for the increase shown by GCEA/SP. 

COFFEE (total, beans) – In relation to January, data of February present increase of 2.2% in production, amounting to 2,933,500 t (48.9 million bags). There was increase of 2.3% in the average yield, which reached 1,399kg/ha, and of 0.4% in the total planted area of the country, that is, the sum of areas for the two species of coffee (arabica and canephora). The area directed to harvesting is the only to present slight decrease of 0.1%, affected by the estimates for the Northeast Region, having been influenced by drought since 2012.

COFFEE (arabica, beans) - The national output of arabica is estimated at 2,165,498 metric tons, which is equivalent to 36.1 million 60 kg bags. This figure represents increase of 3.3% over January.  Average yield also recorded increase (3.1%), as well as total planted area (0.4%) and are directed to harvesting (0.1%). These percentages confirm there was normal fructification and that the green coffee beans managed to resist occasional dry periods without big damage to production.

Minas Gerais, the main national producer, reviewed its estimate by 0.8%, being expected to produce 1,456,921 t (24.3 million bags). The average yield was 1.2% bigger. In February, there was reevaluation in Três Corações and also in Patos de Minas, with improvement of harvest prospects.

São Paulo, the 2nd biggest Brazilian producer, reevaluates January figures, and presents increase of 23.1% in the output expected in February. The harvest of São Paulo state is expected to be 261,000 t (4.4 million bags), with average yield 17.2% above that of January.

COFFEE (canephora, beans) - The estimate of national production in February 2013 is 768,002 t (12.8 million bags), 0.9% below the January estimate.  In the beginning of the year the heat and dry period have damaged some coffee areas in the state of Espírito Santo, the main national producer for this species. The data were reevaluated in a meeting between IBGE and INCAPER, due to the lack of rain in the period of grain fructification. There may still be decrease of yield, which will be evaluated in coming meetings of COMEAs (Municipal Commissions for Agricultural Statistics). 

The state production has been reduced by 0.7% in relation to January, amounting, in February, to 613,852 t (10.2 million bags).  Canephora yield in the state is 0.9% smaller than that of January, due to harsh climtae conditions (dry period and heat), mainly in the beginning of the year.  Espírito Santo accounts for 79.9% of the canephora in the country.

SUGARCANE - In relation to January, production increase was 3.2%, considering increment of 5.6% in the area to be harvested and decrease of 2.3% in the average yield. These changes were mainly observed in São Paulo and Mato Grosso do Sul, with increases of 11.2% and 9.1% in the area to be harvested and decreases of 4.3% and 3.1% in the average yield, respectively. 

BEANS (total, grain) – The national output of beans, considering the three harvests of this product is 3.4 million metric tons, 9.2% smaller than that of January. The Northeast, South and Central West Regions accounted for this negative evaluation of production in relation to January. All the harvests presented decrease in the monthly change of production estimates. The 1^st harvest of beans represents 47.5% of the national output; the 2nd one, 37.9%, and the 3rd one, 14.6%.

BEANS (grain, 1^st harvest) – For 1^st harvest beans, the expected production in 2013 is 1,592,255, 8.9% lower than in the first survey. This decrease occurred mainly due to the estimate of fall by 19.9% in the average yield registered in Bahia, and of 6.6% in Minas Gerais. In relation to the latest results, figures in these states are  estimated to decrease 38.7% and 13.1%, respectively, due to the dry period. It is worth mentioning that in Paraná, the biggest producer for this harvest, the expected production is 314,934 metric tons, 6.4% below the January estimate as a result of the excess of rain.

BEANS (grain, 2^nd harvest) – In case of 2nd harvest beans, the expected production of 1,269,977 metric tons, compared to that of January, recorded decrease of 2.5%. In Paraná, the biggest national producer of 2^nd harvest beans as well, field investigations point to an area to be planted of about 216,903 ha, and an expected output of 404,678 metric tons of this product, with estimates below those of the previous month by 5.4% and 5.0%, respectively.  About 80% of the area is estimate to be planted at the moment.  This crop has been affected by the excess of rain.

ORANGE – The estimated harvest of oranges for 2013 is 16,252,815 t (398.4 million boxes of 40.8 kg) and there is estimated decrease of 11.7% in production ad of 14.1% in harvested area, in relation to the survey of January, due to the abandonment or eradication of less productive areas.

In São Paulo, the main Brazilian producer, the situation of citriculture is currently critical.  The decrease of production in relation to January is 15.7%. The total area used in the state fell, in this month, 11.8%.  The eradication of less productive areas is seen as responsible for this decrease of area. The area to be harvested decreased by 21.0% in relation to the previous month and shows the serious conditions of citriculture in the state.

CASSAVA (roots) – Although the production of cassava in the country is being positively influenced by the high price of the product, in some areas of Bahia, the biggest producer in the country, the effects of a long drought still remain in some producing municipalities. So, the Northeast Region estimates decrease of 6.8% in production over that of the previous month. Bahia alone is expected to face output decrease of 17.3% over January 2013, that is, of 610 thousand metric tons.

The Southeast also estimates decrease of 22.4% in production considering previous data, with fall of output by more than 678 thousand metric tons. The main highlights, in this case, were São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, with decreases of 34.3% and 21.4%, respectively. These states had significant increases in production in 2012, and there was a tendency to an early harvesting of crops due to high prices, and it sacrifices part of the output which will be harvested in 2013. 

CORN (total, grain) - According to the February survey, the total production of grain corn (74,411,751 t) increased by 0.3%, an expected record harvest. Despite the decrease of areas to be planted and harvested by 0.1% and 0.5%, respectively, average yield increased by 0.8%, promoting the increase of production. Out of the 74.4 million metric tons, 36.1 million metric tons are 1^st harvest corn, and 38.3 million metric tons, 2nd harvest corn.  The latter surpassed the 1st one with participation of 51.5% versus 48.5%.  With more capital available, producers could use more technology in the crops, in order to increase productivity and profit as well, since this product now has good prices in the market.

CORN (grain, 1^st harvest) – For the 1^st harvest of corn, some states were highlights due to the reevaluation of estimates.  Bahia reduced the production estimate by 4.8% due to the smaller area to be harvested (6.4%).  Minas Gerais, the second main national producer, with 18.8% of participation, also reduced its figures, so that the national output fell by 2.0% and the area to be harvested, by 3.6%.  São Paulo, which readjusted data, informed there was decrease of 4.0% in production and of 6.4% in planted and harvested areas. In the South Region, Paraná, the biggest producer, with 18.9% of participation, reduced its production by 1.2% due to the negative yield adjustment of 1.2%. Rio Grande do Sul, on the other hand, differently from the states mentioned above, recorded increase of estimates, with production increase of 11.6%, resulting from the rise of yield by 12.2%. 

CORN (grain, 2^nd harvest) – Few states reevaluated their data for 2^nd harvest corn in the month of February. The expected production increased by 0.70% in relation to that of January, due to positive adjustments in area and yield, of 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively.  This increase occurred mainly due to São Paulo, where the production estimate increased by 32.5% in the month, because of the expansion of area (14.7%) and yield (15.5%). Minas Gerais and Paraná effected negative adjustments in production, by 2.8% and 0.6%, respectively. Grain prices favor the increase of planting prospects in the states which produce 2^nd harvest corn.

SOYBEANS (grain) - With attractive prices, there is expected increase in the national output of this grain. This year producers expect to harvest 83,288,808 metric tons of soybeans. The area of 27.5 million hectares recorded increase of 0.3% in this evaluation compared to January. The excess of rain has damaged harvest in several producing areas, mainly affecting late planting and crops with later types of crops.  In the state of Mato Grosso, the main national producer, the expected harvest is 24,387,908 metric tons, about 29.3% of the total. In Goiás, there was reported lack of rain in December, in certain areas, which, together with the excess of rain during harvesting, caused decrease of the average yield  by 1.3% over January data. That resulted in loss of 67,131 metric tons of the output expected for the state. 

In Mato Grosso do Sul it is possible to observe the biggest reduction, last month, of the expected average yield (4.0%). Consequently, the expected production was reduced to the same level. Even so, this state must end the harvesting period with 5,702,400 t of grain, surpassing by 24.1% (1,108,044) the production of 2012. The South Region expects to contribute, this year, with about 35.3% of the total soybeans produced by the country. After the drought which occurred in the previous harvest, Paraná, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul increased the estimate for areas to be harvested by about 0.5%, in the monthly comparison.  Paraná, which expects to produce 18.5% of the national total (15,370,500 metric tons) already harvested about 45% of soybeans this year. Despite the slight decrease in average yield, because of rain during harvests in the last month, it recorded prices ranging from R$ 58,00 and R$ 60,00/bag in the municipality of Ponta Grossa. In Rio Grande do Sul, the climate favored crops, and it is worth mentioning the evaluation of CGEA, of increase in production, in the monthly comparison, by 4.4% (518,026 metric tons). 

SORGHUM (grain) - The estimated sorghum production in 2013 has fallen by 7.1% in relation to the latest data available, mainly due to production estimates in Bahia (with decrease of 41.6%), with decrease of 47.5% in the expected yield. The state is the main national producer of this grain and has had insufficient rainfall for this time of year in several producing areas, with the continuation of the drought which started in 2012.

The second IBGE estimate for the national output of cereals, legumes and oilseeds points to a harvest of 183.4 million metric tons for 2013, 13.2% above the 2012 output (162.1 million metric tons), with almost null change (8,466 metric tons or 0.0%) over the January estimate.  According to the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production, released monthly by IBGE, the area planted in 2013 is expected to have 52.8 million hectares, or to be 8.0% bigger than the area harvested in 2012 (48.8 million hectares).  This second estimate was reduced by 201,605 hectares (-0.4%) in relation to the first one, made available in January.  Rice, corn and soybeans, the three main products of this group, represented 92.5% of the estimated production and 85.6% of the area to be harvested.  In relation to 2012, there were increases of area by 1.4% for rice, 7.6% for corn and 10.1% for soybeans.  As for production, in comparison with 2012 figures, there were increases of 4.9% for rice, 4.1% for corn and 26.8% for soybeans.  The complete publication can be seen at www.ibge.gov.br/english/estatistica/indicadores/agropecuaria/lspa .