In January of 2013, the industrial output index advanced 2.5% in relation to the previous month in the seasonally adjusted series, after registering a 1.3% drop in November and a slight positive change of 0.2% in December.  In the series without seasonal adjustment, over the same month a year ago, the industry overall posted an expansion of 5.7% in January 2013, interrupting two consecutive months of negative rates in this kind of comparison: -0.8% in November and -3.5% December. The annual rate, which is the cumulative indicator over the last twelve months, after contracting 1.9% in January 2013, posted a reduction in the falling pace intensity against the rate registered last December (-2.6%). The complete publication of the survey can be accessed at www.ibge.gov.br/home/estatistica/indicadores/industria/pimpfbr/.

18 of the 27 subsectors surveyed record growth in January

The 2.5% expansion of the industrial activity between December 2012 and January 2013 had a generalized profile of growth in 18 of the 27 subsectors surveyed, reaching all categories of use.  Among the activities, the main positive influences were: motor vehicles (4.7%), petroleum refinement and alcohol production (5.2%), machinery and equipment (5.7%), pharmaceuticals (5.6%) and electronic material and communication equipment and apparatus (10.5%). With this month's result, the first sector interrupted the negative behavior seen since last November, period in which it accumulated a loss of 4.5%; the second sector advanced 6.4% in the last two months of expansion; the third recovered part of the 6.6% decline observed in November and December; the fourth had a growth of 10.4% in two months of positive rates, removing the loss of 6.8% accumulated in October and November; and the last one had the most significant increase since the 16.9% registered in January last year. Other relevant positive contributions to the industry overall came from: footwear and leather articles (13.8%), fabricated metal products (3.3%), other chemical products (1.5%), furniture (8.5%), basic metals (1.9%) and food (0.8%). On the other hand, among the nine activities that dropped the production, the most important performances to the overall result were in: mining and quarrying industries (-6.6%), tobacco (-53.5%) and other transportation equipment (-4.3%).

Among the categories of use, still considering the comparison with the previous month, capital goods, with a growth of 8.2%, posted the sharpest increase in January 2013. It is worth highlighting that this expansion was the most intense since June 2008 (8.8%) and interrupted two consecutive months of production drop, in which the decrease reached 0.7%. The segments of durable consumer goods (2.5%) and of intermediate goods (0.9%) also presented positive rates this month, both accelerating the growth pace against last December's result (0.5% and 0.2%, respectively). The segment of semi- and non-durable consumer goods, with a change of 0.2%, presented the most moderate increase this month. It also presented the second consecutive positive rate, accumulating a gain of 1.0% in this period.

Quarterly moving average changes 0.4%

In the seasonally adjusted series, the evolution of the quarterly moving average to the industry overall posted a positive change of 0.4% in the quarter ended in January 2013 against the previous month, accelerating the pace against November (-0.4%) and December (-0.1%).  Among the categories of use, still in relation to the movement of this index on margin, capital goods (2.5%) recorded the most intense increase in January, after being practically stable in the last two months. The segments of durable consumer goods (0.6%), semi- and non-durable consumer goods (0.2%) and intermediate goods (0.1%) also saw positive rates this month, all of them posting a pace gain against last December.

Industrial output grows 5.7% in the comparison with January 2012

In the comparison with the same month a year ago, the industrial sector grew 5.7% in January 2013, with the highest expansion since February 2011 (7.5%) in this type of confront.   This month's index revealed a dissemination of positive results, since all categories of use and 18 of the 27 activities surveyed pointed to an increase in the production. Motor vehicles, which advanced 39.3%, had the most positive influence on the formation of the industry average, pulled by the growth in the production of almost 85% of the products surveyed in the sector, with a highlight to: automobiles, trucks, tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers, vehicles for the transportation of goods, chassis with engines for buses and trucks, car parts, trailers and semi-trailers and diesel engines for trucks and buses. It is worth emphasizing the influence of the low basis of comparison, since this sector dropped 26.8% in January 2012, due to a strike and to the granting of collective vacation in several companies in this sector.

Other relevant positive contributions to the national overall came from: petroleum refinement and alcohol production (11.0%), pharmaceuticals (20.2%), beverages (12.8%), food (2.8%), other chemical products (3.7%), other transportation equipment (8.3%) and furniture (16.0%).  In terms of products, the most positive pressures were, respectively: diesel fuel, other fuels and motor gasoline; medicines; soft drinks, beer, draft beer and beverage syrup; concentrated orange juice, frozen poultry meat or giblets, ice cream and popsicles; herbicides for agricultural use; airplanes; and wooden wardrobes, metal seats for motor vehicles, metal wardrobes for domestic use and wooden office tables and chairs.  On the other hand, still considering the comparison with January 2012, among the nine activities which reduced production, the main impacts were seeing in: publishing, printing and reproduction of recorded media (-9.9%), machinery and equipment (-4.5%), basic metals (-4.3%) and tobacco (-54.7%), pressed, to a great extent, by: magazines, newspapers and books, in the first sector; machining centers for working metal, motor graders, machines for harvest, microwave ovens, refrigerators and freezers, in the second; carbon steal rebars, un-alloy aluminium and carbon steel thick plates, in the third; and cigarettes, in the last one.

In the index by categories of use, still in comparison with the same month a year ago, capital goods (17.3%) and durable consumer goods (10.3%) had an expansion of two digits, both influenced, to a great extent, by the low basis of comparison, since, in January 2012, they registered drops of 15.0% and 7.7%, respectively.  The production of intermediate goods (4.0%) and semi- and non-durable consumer goods (3.0%) also showed positive rates this month, but stood below the industry average (5.7%) in this type of comparison.

The sector of capital goods, which grew 17.3% in January 2013, interrupted sixteen months of negative results in the monthly index and had the most intense increase since February 2011 (19.4%) in this type of comparison.  In the formation of this month’s index, the segment was particularly influenced by an unusual growth in: capital goods for transportation equipment (61.3%), attributable not only to the strike in January 2012, but also to the larger manufacture of trucks, tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers, vehicles for the transportation of goods, airplanes and chassis with engines for buses and trucks. It is also worth highlighting the positive result of capital goods for electricity (8.6%). The other subsectors showed an output drop: capital goods for construction (-31.5%), for agriculture (-18.5%), for industrial purposes (-3.9%) and for mixed use (-1.9%).

Compared with the same month a year ago, durable consumer goods (10.3%) had the highest rate since October last year (12.9%), pushed to a great extent by: automobiles (25.3%) and, to a lesser extent, by: furniture (13.3%) and “white goods” (0.8%). In this category of use, the main negative impacts were: motorcycles (-31.1%) and cell phones (-1.3%) and “brown goods” (-7.8%) and other household appliances (-7.4%).

Intermediate goods (4.0%), which interrupted two months of negative rates compared with the same month a year ago, had the largest expansion since February 2011 (4.6%). This month, the positive highlights were seeing in: petroleum refinement and alcohol production (13.4%), motor vehicles (16.2%), other chemical products (3.3%), mining and quarrying industries (2.6%), rubber and plastic (5.3%), pulp, paper and paper products (3.1%), non-metallic mineral products (2.9%), textiles products (2.0%) and fabricated metal products (1.5%), while negative influences were registered by basic metals (-4.3%) and food (-3.8%).    Still in this category of use, it is also worth mentioning the positive results coming from the inputs for civil construction (1.7%), which interrupted two consecutive months of negative indexes in this type of comparison, and package (6.3%), which had the most intense growth since September 2010 (6.7%).

Semi- and non-durable consumer goods (3.0%) also showed an expansion on production this month in the monthly index, especially sustained by the positive results of: food and beverages for domestic consumption (7.3%), fuels (5.9%) and semi-durables (1.8%), mainly leveraged by the expansion in the manufacture of: soft drinks, beer, draft beer, concentrated orange juice and frozen poultry meat or giblets, in the first subsector, motor gasoline, in the second, and footwear and female synthetic footwear, in the last one. On the other hand, the subsector of other non-durable products (-3.3%) exerted the negative impact in this category of use, pressed, mostly, by the lowest manufacture of cigarettes, magazines, toothpaste, newspapers and books.