In December 2012, the retail trade of the country recorded a change of –0.5% for the volume of sales and of 0.2% for the nominal revenue of sales, both rates in relation to the previous month (seasonally adjusted). As to volume, it is the first negative result after six consecutive months of growth.  Conversely, as to revenue, the series does not register any negative results. The rates for the volume of sales, not seasonally adjusted, were at 5.0% against December/2011 and at 8.4% in the cumulative indicator of the year.  Concerning nominal revenue, the rates were at 10.9% in relation to the same month in 2011 and at 12.3% in the year.

As to the Extended retail trade, there was a growth of 1.3% in the volume of sales and of 1.1% in the nominal revenue.  In relation to December 2011, the rises were of 5.0% and 7.7%, respectively  Concerning the cumulative rates in the year, the increases were of 8.0% for the volume of sales and of 9.5% for the nominal revenue.

The complete publication of the survey can be accessed at www.ibge.gov.br/english/estatistica/indicadores/comercio/pmc/.

In the annual series, hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco account for 44.6% of the rate

The sector of Hyper, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco rose 8.4% in the volume of sales in 2012 compared with the previous year. That result accounted for 44.6% of the annual retail rate, the main impact on the annual result of the retail trade. Despite the rise in prices, the activity had a cumulative performance in the year equivalent to the trade as a whole. This behavior reflects, mostly, the increase in the population’s purchasing power, mainly driven by the rise in the volume of salaries (due to the increases of income and employment).

With an increase of 12.3% in relation to the previous year, Furniture and house appliances exerted the second highest impact (26.6%) on the annual retail rate.  Such performance occurred due to the maintenance of the employment and income growth and credit facility; as well as price reduction, mostly in house appliances, stimulated by the IPI reduction imposed by the government since December 2011 to the “white line” segment and, starting in March, to furniture.

Other articles of personal and household use exerted, in 2012, the third highest impact on the annual result of the retail trade, being responsible for 9.4% of the magnitude of the overall rate, registering a change in the volume of sales of 9.4% in 2012, compared to 2011. Covering department stores, optic shops, jewelries, sporting goods, toys, etc., this activity had its performance also influenced by the positive evolution of the volume of salaries and  by credit.  

The activity of Pharmaceutical, medical, orthopedic articles and toiletries, which recorded a growth of 10.2%, in relation to the previous year, exerted the fourth highest contribution to the annual rate of the retail trade.  The employment stability, expansion of the volume of salaries and credit availability, as well as the fact that this activity has an essential and permanent character, are the main contributing factors to the positive performance of segment.  

The fifth major contribution to the overall rate came from Fuels and lubricants, which registered a positive result in the volume of sales with an cumulative change of 6.8% in 2012 against the previous year. This performance is due to price reduction (-0.7% of the sub-item fuels versus a 5.8% change of the general index – IPCA), as well as to the growth of the vehicles fleet.

Extended retail trade changes 1.3% in relation to November and 8.0% in the cumulative index in 2012

For the extended retail trade, comprising the retail trade plus the activities of Vehicles, motorcycles and parts and Construction material, the seasonally adjusted changes in relation to November/12, were 1.3% for the volume of sales and 1.1% for the nominal revenue of sales.  As for the unadjusted indicators, changes were:  5.0% in the relation Dec12/Dec11 and 8.0% in the cumulative index of the year for the volume of sales, and 7.7% and 9.5% for the nominal revenue, respectively.

In relation to Vehicles, motorcycles and parts and pieces, results for the volume of sales were:  8.3% against the previous month, seasonally adjusted, 6.8% in the Dec12 / Dec11 comparison, and 7.3% in the cumulative indicator of 2012. As for the nominal revenue of sales, changes were: 6.7%; 3.7% and 4.2%, respectively.  The main factor responsible for the activity performance was the IPI decrease policy announced to the sector in the end of May, and that was in force until December 31^st. The rate will rise gradually for automobiles in the first half of 2013 until it reaches the value previous to the government measure. The result for the segment was the biggest since 2010.

Construction material changed 3.1% for the volume of sales, compared with the previous month (seasonally adjusted), 6.9% against December of 2011 and 7.9% for the cumulaive rate of the year.  For the nominal revenue of sales the numbers were: 3.6% against the preceding month (seasonally adjusted); 8.8% compared with December of 2011 and 10.1% accumulated in the year. The IPI reduction for some of the products in the sector, as well as favorable conditions for housing credit, coupled with the governmental program “My Home My Life”, were the factors that contributed to the activity’s result. According to the Central Bank, the increase in the supply of housing credit was of 37.6% in 2012.

Seven FUs have positive results over November

Concerning the Federation Units, the seasonally adjusted results for the volume of sales register only seven states with positive changes on a month over preceding month base. The main increases were in Rondônia (1.5%); Pará (1.3%); Santa Catarina (1.1%) and Pernambuco (1.0%). The main decreases were in Tocantins (-6.5%); Mato Grosso do Sul (-5.2%); Amapá (-4.9%); Mato Grosso (-4.8%) and Rio Grande do Sul (-4.3%).

By areas, in terms to the volume of sales, in the comparison December 2012/December 2011, only five Federation Units presented negative results. They were:  Federal District (-3.5%); Amazonas (-1.2%); Acre (-1.0%); Mato Grosso (-0.3%) and Minas Gerais (-0.2%).  In other FUs, the changes with the highest rates were in Roraima (14.8%); Espírito Santo (12.2%); Pernambuco (10.6%); Mato Grosso do Sul (10.5%) and Amapá (8.8%). As to contribution to the retail trade rate, the highlights were: São Paulo (7.7%); Rio de Janeiro (4.1%); Pernambuco (10.6%); Santa Catarina (5.9%) and Bahia (5.5%). 

As for the extended retail trade, the highest monthly performance rates for the volume of sales occurred in Alagoas (14.4%); Roraima (11.2%); Amapá (10.9%); Maranhão (9.0%) and São Paulo (8.8%). Concerning the impact on the overall result of the sector, the highlights were São Paulo (8.8%); Rio Grande do Sul (4.6%); Bahia (6.8%); Pernambuco (7.4%) and Rio de Janeiro (1.9%).  

In terms of cumulative results, none of the states registered a negative change in 2012. The biggest increases in the volume of sales of retail trade were in: Roraima (26.7%); Amapá (17.7%); Mato Grosso do Sul (16.9%); Tocantins (15.3%) and Acre (12.8%).  For the extended retail trade, the highest annual rates were 17.9% in Roraima; 15.7% in Tocantins; 14.3% in Mato Grosso; 12.9% in Alagoas and 12.1% in Pará.    

Quarterly results indicate growth slowdown

In a quarterly basis, numbers point to a deceleration in the growth pace for the volume of sales between the third and the fourth quarters of the year, in retail, dropping from 2.2% to 0.9%, with seasonal adjustment, and from 8.6% to 7.3% without seasonal adjustment (quarter/same quarter of the previous year). As for the extended retail trade, the result is equivalent. The change rate moved from 2.1% to 0.6% for the adjusted index and from 9.4% to 8.6% for the non-adjusted.

The second half of 2012 recorded an increase of 3.1% in relation to the previous half, seasonally adjusted.  In relation to the same period a year ago, the result was of 7.9%, below that of the first half, which reached 9.1%, revealing a slowdown in the sector.