The first estimate for the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds (cotton seed, peanuts, rice, beans, castor beans, corn, soybeans, oats, rye, barley, sunflower seeds, sorghum, wheat and triticale) in 2013 amounts to 183.3 million metric tons, 13.1% more than in 2012 (162.1 million metric tons). Planted area in 2013, expected to be 53.0 million metric tons, represents an increment of 8.4% versus the harvested area of 2012 (48.8 million hectares). The three main crops (rice, corn and soybeans) which, together, represent 92.2% of the estimated production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds, cover 85.2% of the area to be harvested. In relation to the previous year, there were increases of area for rice (1.3%), corn (8.2%) and soybeans (9.7%). Concerning production, rice recorded 5.35% of increase, corn, 3.8% and soybeans, 26.3%, all in comparison with 2012 figures. 

The complete publication is available at www.ibge.gov.br/english/estatistica/indicadores/agropecuaria/lspa

Among the Major Regions, the volume of output of these grains was distributed as follows: Central West, 72.0 million metric tons; South, 71.2 million metric tons; Southeast, 19.2 million metric tons; Northeast, 16.7 million metric tons and North, 4.3 million metric tons.  Compared to last harvest, there were increases in the Northeast Region (39.8%), South (28.3%), Central West (1.7%) and Southeast (0.1%), and decrease in the North Region (9.4%). Among the Federation Units, Mato Grosso is the leader as the main national producer of grains, with participation of 23.4%, followed by Paraná, with 20.2% ad Rio Grande do Sul, with 15.0%. These states, together, accounted for 58.8% of the overall production in the country.

January estimate versus 2012 output

Among the 26 products selected, 19 recorded positive change in the estimate in relation to the previous year:  2^nd harvest peanuts in husk (20.6%), rice in husk (5.3%), oats in grain (0.7%), 1^st-harvest potatoes (4.8%), 2^nd harvest potatoes (1.5%), 3^rd harvest potatoes (18.6%), coffee beans – canephora (2.3%), sugarcane (6.0%), barley in grain (22.9%), 1^st harvest beans in grain (41.8%), 2^nd harvest beans in grain (17.5%), 3^rd harvest beans in grain (32.3%), castor beans in bagasse (251.8%), cassava (5.6%), 1^st harvest grain corn (9.0%), soybeans in grain (26.3%), sorghum in grain (2.0%), wheat in grain (11.5%) and triticale (4.3%).  Seven products recorded negative changes:  upland cotton seed (26.8%), 1^st harvest peanuts in husk (10.2%), cacao beans (5.3%), arabica coffee beans (9.1%), onions (3.1%), oranges (3.0%) and 2^nd harvest grain corn (0.7%).  

HERBACEOUS SEED COTTON – The production prospect in 2013 is 3,633,833 metric ton, with a decrease of 26.8% compared to the pervious year. Planted area (1.010.078 hectares) decreases 28.8%, due to the areas covered by soybean.  Mato Grosso and Bahia, the main producers, show participation of 52.4% and 29.4%, respectively. In Mato Grosso planted area is expected to decrease 28.5% and production, 32.2%, whereas in Bahia there must be an area reduction of 29.5% and a drop of 15.2% in production.

PADDY RICE – The planted area estimate is 2,401,538 hectares, 0.1% higher than in the previous harvest. The estimated production of 11,977,725 metric ton and the average yield of 4,988 Kg/ha are higher, respectively, by 5.3% and 3.9%, compared to the previous harvest. Rio Grande do Sul, the major producer, with 67.0% of the national production of grain, is estimated to produce 8,026,200 metric ton, in an area of 1,065,995 hectares to be harvested and with average yield of 7,529 hg/ha. These figures surpass the ones in the previous year by 4.3%, 2.6%, and 1.7%, respectively. Price recovery compared to the previous harvest, and the dry weather prognosis for January and February account for these results. The estimated yield for the current harvest, of 7,529 kg/ha, is the second biggest in history, only second to the 2010 harvest, of 7,648 kg/ha.

BEANS (grain) – The estimated production is about 3.7 million metric ton, 30.6% higher than 2012. There is planted area of 3.5 million hectares, 10.1% bigger than in 2012. The main producers are Paraná, Minas Gerais and Goiás, with 20.8%, 17.2% and 13.3%, of national participation, respectively. Paraná reduced its planting area by 7.2%, but with a expected increase in the average yield, of 22.1%. The production estimate is 13.63% higher than in 2012 (767,596 metric tons).

The 1st national harvest of beans, estimated as 1.7 million of metric ton, had a growth of 41.8%, against the 2012 production. This result reflects the increase of 10.4% in the planted area and of 6.0% in the average yield. The biggest producers are Paraná (19.2%), Ceará (14.1%) and Minas Gerais (12.6%).

CORN (in grain) – A record production of 74.2 million metric tones is expected (36.1 million metric tones of 1^st harvest corn and 38.1 million of metric tones of 2^nd harvest corn). The prospect for 2013 is a bigger 2^nd harvest, with 51.3% versus 48.7% of the 1^st harvest, similarly to 2012, the first year in history when the 2^nd harvest overcame the 1^st one.

The 1^st harvest of corn is still in the filed with expected productivity 2.0% bigger than in 2012, on the average, due to good climate conditions and to bigger investments in technology. The estimated planted area is 7,483,428 hectares, 1.9% more than in 2012; harvested area must grow 6.9% and production, 9.0%. Compared to 2012, production has increased substantially, due to the rise of yield, as a result of good climate conditions and of bigger investments in technology.

The 2^nd harvest of corn is bigger than the 1^st one, with a production estimate of 38.1 million metric tons and decrease of 0.7% in relation to the equivalent harvest in 2012. Planted and harvested areas are estimated at 7.930.152 hectares, with increases of 7.3% and 9.5%, respectively, compared to the previous year. Yield yield recorded a drop of 9.3% (4,799 kg/ha), reflecting the caution of informants that do not expect climate conditions as good as those in 2012. 

SOYBEAN (in grain) – The harvest estimate is 82,953,874 metric tons (an increase of 26.3% in relation to 2012). Harvested area grew 9.7%, (27,365,292 hectares), and the expected average yield is 3,031 kg/ha, a growth of 15.0%. In 2012, the world soybean production faced a strong drop due to climate issues in countries such as the United States, Argentina and Brazil, reducing the world stocks; the commodity prices rose and the investments in technology and inputs grew as well. The soybean production must grow 60.9% in the South Region (more 99.3% in Rio Grande do Sul, 51.1% in Santa Catarina and 41.0% in Paraná), due to the recovery of production. In Central-West, the estimated growth of production is 13.5% (Mato Grosso intends to produce 24.4 million, Goiás, 9.2 million and Mato Grosso do Sul, 5.9 million metric tons. Although the soybean bag price has fallen 15% in the last two months, the value received by the producer still stood around 40% higher to that in 2011.

Total coffee (in grain) – In January, the estimated national harvest for 2013 amounted to 2,870,969 metric ton, 47.8 million 60-kg bags of processed coffee in grain, considering both species together (arabica and canephora).  

ARABICA (in grain) – For Arabica, which represents more than 73.0% of the total harvested coffee in the country, the decrease of production in relation to 2012 is 9.1%.  Brazil must produce 2,096,347 metric tons of grain, which is the same as 34.9 million bags of 60 kg. The area directed to harvest is 1,595,883 hectares, 0.5% bigger than the harvested area in the previous year. The total area planted with the crop in every stages of development has grown 0.1% in the country. The decrease expected in the production related to the harvested area in 2012, results mostly from the alternation between years of high and low productivity. High production coasts and labor force issues had a significant impact in 2012 and can negatively influence the harvest of 2013. Minas Gerais, the 1st Brazilian producer of coffeea arabica, points to decrease of 8.4% in the expected production, 1,445,979 metric tons (24.1 million bags of 60 kg). The area to be harvested must stay at 1,025,133 ha (more 0.8%), and the average yield ix expected to slow down 9.1%. It will be revaluated in the coming surveys.

COFFEA CANEPHORA (in grain) - The estimated production is 774,622 metric tons (12.9 million bags), 2.3% bigger than in 2012, in an area to be harvested of 502,094 hectares (total area of 560,889 hectares). The biggest national producer of canephora, Espírito Santo, must produce, in 2013, 79.8% of the Brazilian production of this species, initially estimated at 618,470 metric tons (10.3 million bags). The calculated production increase, in relation to 2012, is 5.0% and the expected average yield is 2,109 kg/ha (35.5 bags/ha), 6.6% higher than the last year. In the north of the state, irrigation is already used in almost 80.0% of the area planted with this species of coffee, which contributes to the achievement of ever higher average yields.

SUGARCANE – The national production is estimated at 715 333 588 metric tons, with a growth of 6.0% in relation to the previous year, due, exclusively, to the bigger average yield expected for 2013 (76 947 kg/ha, 7.4% higher than that of the previous year), since farming was pretty damaged by the lack of rain in 2012. The growth of harvest this year will be important for the recovery of the sector, which still feels the effects of the world crisis. Besides this, the adjustment of gasoline prices grants more  greater competitiveness to hydrated alcohol for biofuel cars; government also announced an increase of the amount anhydrous alcohol in gasoline, from 20% to 25%, starting in May. In relation to sugar, the increase of the world offer led to fall of prices in the foreign market, which can influence the destination of production. São Paulo continues to be the biggest national producer, being responsible for 53.5% of the production, which may reach 382.9 million metric tons. The average yield must grow 13.0%, against an expected reduction of 4.6% in the area directed to the harvest, due to climate and economic issues faced by the sector in the last two years. In Minas Gerais, the growth of production (7.1%) occurs due to the greater area to be harvested (9.2%), with the opening of new mills in the state in the last three years. In Paraná, the growth of the production estimate is 12.7%, reflecting the expectations of improvement in productivity, due to climate conditions.

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) is a monthly survey to forecast and monitor the harvest of the main agricultural products, whose information is obtained by means of the Municipal Commissions (COMEA) and/or Regional Commissions (COREA). The latter are consolidated in state level by the Agriculture Statistics Coordinating Groups (GCEA) and, later, evaluated at national level, by the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics (CEPAGRO). This Commission is formed by representatives from IBGE and from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA).

Due to users’ needs of harvest data, the surveys relative to Cereals, Legumes and Oilseeds (cotton seed, peanut, rice, beans, castor beans, corn, soybean, oat, rye, barley, sunflower, sorghum, wheat and triticale) have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency of the Ministry of Agriculture (CONAB), a subdivision of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). That initiative is the result of a process (started in October, 2007) of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops.