In November 2012, IBGE conducted the second estimate of the area and production for the harvest of 2013. The production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds is estimated at 173.8 million tons, 6.9% higher than in 2012. This increase is due to the recovery and rise expected for the South (20.8%) and Northeast regions (26.2%), which faced weather problems in 2012. The area to be harvested might grow 2.5% in the South and 21.1% in the Northeast. The Central-West region presents a 4.3% area expansion, pushed by the products’ good prices, notably soybean and corn.

The 11^th evaluation of the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds accounts for 162.6 million metric tons, 1.6% higher than the harvest obtained in 2011 (160.1 million metric tons) and surpasses October’s estimate in 31,443 metric tons (0.0%). The area to be harvested in 2012, of 48.9 million hectares, presents an increase of 0.4% compared to the harvested area in 2011 and a decrease of 0.2% in relation to the previous month’s estimate.  The three main cultures in this group: rice, corn and soybean - which altogether represent 91.3% of the production estimate, account for 85.2% of the area to be harvested. In relation to the previous year, rice presents an area reduction of 13.6%, corn, an expansion of 7.9% and soybean, an advance of 3.6%.  Concerning production, corn is 27.3% bigger, whereas rice and soybean posted a drop of 15.1% and 12.5%, respectively, when compared to 2011.

The complete publication can be accessed at www.ibge.gov.br/english/estatistica/indicadores/agropecuaria/lspa

Among the Major Regions, the volume of production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds presents the following distribution: Central-West region, 70.6 million tonnes; South, 56.0 million tonnes; Southeast, 19.1 million tonnes; Northeast, 12.2 million tonnes; and North, 4.7 million tonnes. Compared to the latest harvest, increases are recorded for the North, 7.4%, Southeast, 11.2% and Central-West regions, 25.9% and decreases, for the South, 17.4% and Northeast, 16.7%.  In 2012, Mato Grosso leads the national production of grains, with a contribution of 24.9%, followed by Paraná with 19.1% and Rio Grande do Sul, with 12.1%. Together, these states account for 56.1% of the national overall.

Estimate of November 2012 in relation to production obtained in 2011

Among the 26 selected products, 11 presented positive change over the previous year:  peanut in the shell 1^st harvest (25.6%), peanut in the shell 2^nd harvest (3.7%), oat in grain (11.9%), cacao nut (4.0%), coffee in grain – arabica (15.6%), coffee in grain – canephora (9.8%), onion (5.5%),   barley in grain (3.1%), beans in grain 3^rd harvest (10.0%), corn in grain 2^nd harvest (73.4%) and sorghum in grain (4.9%).  Recording a negative change: upland cotton seed (-2.2%), paddy rice (-15.1%), potato 1^st harvest (-8.5%), potato 2^nd harvest (-19.0%), potato 3^rd harvest (-12.6%), sugarcane (-7.6%), beans in grain 1^st harvest (-36.3%), beans in grain 2^nd harvest (-1.8%), orange (-3.9%), castor beans (-74.9%), cassava (-3.5%), corn in grain 1^st harvest (-2.6%), soybean in grain (-12.5%), wheat in grain (-14.9%) and triticale in grain (-0.6%).

November’s estimate highlights in relation to October 2012

PEANUT (in the shell) 2^nd harvest – The country produced, in 2012, 16,335 metric tons of the product. The yield decreased 12.8% in relation to October. The harvested area decreased 16.0%. The greatest drops were in the Northeast because of rectifications due to severe droughts throughout the year. This result is mostly attributable to Bahia, the second biggest producer, with 38.3% of the national overall and posting a reduction of 17.8%.

BEANS (in grain) Total – The national production of beans in grain, estimated in 2,814,388 metric tons records a reduction of 1.0% over October. Beans 2^nd harvest, in relation to the last result, registers a retraction of 2.5% attributable to the 3.6% decrease in the harvested area, although the average yield has increased 1.1%.  These numbers reflect the 18.7% reduction in the production in the Northeast region, whose contribution accounts for 11.8%, due to droughts.

CASTOR BEANS – In November, the culture recorded a drop of 1.3% in the production and of 1.6% in the harvested area.

SORGHUM (in grain) – The estimated production of sorghum in November is 2,002,013 metric tons, pointing out a growth of 0.9% over October. The harvested area and productivity are increasing 0.7% and 0.2%, respectively. The month’s highlight was Goiás, which recorded a rise of 2.3% in production (18,332 t), a consequence of the positive reviews in the harvested area (2.1%) and in the yield (0.2%).  It is the second greater average yield of the country (3,360 kg/ha), just behind Minas Gerais (3,549 kg/ha), which did not inform any change in its production estimate.

Prospects for the agricultural production of 2013

Among the ten main products analyzed for the next summer harvest, six registered positive changes:  rice (1.3%), beans 1^st harvest (26.5%), tobacco (6.9%), cassava (2.8%), corn 1^st harvest (7.4%) and soybean (23.9%). Down are cotton (-22.5%), peanut 1^st harvest (-7.8%), potato 1^st harvest (-1.1%) and onion (-4.0%). In relation to the estimated area, positive changes are presented by rice (0.1%), beans 1^st harvest (18.4%), corn 1^st harvest (4.6%) and soybean (7.5%). The other products that might suffer a contraction are upland cotton (-22.4%), peanut 1^st harvest (-0.3%), potato 1^st harvest (-3.9%), onion (-0.6%), tobacco (-0.3%) and cassava (-4.8%).

UPLAND COTTON SEED - The prognosis for upland cotton in 2013 considers a 24.5% reduction in the planting area over 2012. Based on information provided by the states, which together account for 96.8% of the production, the reduction preview is of 1,111,594 metric tons.  In Mato Grosso alone, the biggest national producer, the reduction might get close to 800,000 metric tons, due o the intention to plant other crops in areas destined for cotton in the previous year.  In Bahia, the planting area reduction is close to 30%, and production follow the suit.

PADDY RICE – The production estimate is of 11,561,805 metric tons, 1.3% higher than in 2012; whereas the planted area falls 1.1%, the harvested area and the average yield rise 0.1% and 1.2% in relation to 2012. Rio Grand do Sul, the biggest national producer, contributing with 67.2% of the rice production, must harvest 7,767,237 metric tons, a 0.5% rise in relation to the previous year.  Santa Catarina, the second biggest producer, reports a harvest of 1,100,610 metric tons for 2013, increasing just 0.3% over 2012, while Mato Grosso, the third biggest producer, expects a production of 483,184 metric tons, 5.8% higher than in 2012.

BEANS (in grain) 1^st harvest – The second production estimate of beans 1^st harvest for 2013 is of 1,572,293 metric tons, 26.5% greater than the harvest in the same period of 2012. In relation to the 1^st estimate, made in October, the increase is of 3.1%. The national yield increases 6.8% in relation to 2012 and 2.5% when compared to the yield projected in the 1^st estimate, in October.  The greatest producer of beans 1^st harvest is Paraná, whose share might reach 22.7%. The planted area or to be planted falls 15.9%, the average yield might grow 21.9%, reflecting a rise of 2.5% in the production, which might get to 356,561 metric tons. All such variables decrease if compared to October’s estimate. Minas Gerais, the second greatest producer, contributing with 15.6% of the estimate production, expects a harvest of 245,846 metric tons, 12.4% higher than that of 2012.

CASSAVA (roots) - Even though the planted areas and the areas to be harvested in 2013 are falling 9.3% and 4.8%, respectively, over 2012, the production estimate is growing 2.8%, probably reaching 25,131,715 metric tons of roots.  Such increase in the production is credited to the 8.0% rise in the average yield of the country, which is being pushed up by Piauí (120.8%), Bahia (16.2%) and by the prospect of an increase of 8.0% in the average yield of the other states which have not yet reported their projections and which represent 59.4% of the total Brazilian production (estimate).

CORN (in grain) 1^st harvest – In this 2^nd estimate, the expected production is of 35.7 million metric tons, 7.4% greater than that of  2012 and 2.8% higher than the first estimate.  The planted area, calculated in 7.4 million hectares, rose 1.0% and the average yield (4,832 kg/ha), 1.7% in relation to the last survey. There is an expectation of reduction in the planted area (-3.9%) if compared to the last harvest, for corn has lost ground for soybeans because they are more productive at the moment.  As compared to 2012’s harvest, Paraná expects a fall of 12.2% in the area of corn 1^st harvest, due to soybean planting. Conversely, Rio Grande do Sul expects a growth of 54.2% due to the recovery of the average yield (48.1%), which was low in the last harvest because of weather conditions. The planted area might shrink 4.8%.   Bahia expects a production 42.9% higher than that of 2012 in a planted area 10% larger. Piauí, considered one of the last agricultural frontiers in Brazil, expects a 40.6% rise in the production.

SOYBEAN (in grain) – The area for soybean crops must increase near 1,741,434 ha. The good prices practiced in the futures market, crop shortfalls in other countries and good projections for 2013 stimulated producers to invest in the culture for the next harvest.   In Mato Grosso, the biggest producer, despite the worries with the production flow, the estimate is a 10% rise in the planting area.

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) is a monthly survey to forecast and monitor the harvest of the main agricultural products, whose information is obtained by means of the Municipal Commissions (COMEA) and/or Regional Commissions (COREA). The latter are consolidated in state level by the Agriculture Statistics Coordinating Groups (GCEA) and, later, evaluated at national level, by the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics (CEPAGRO). This Commission is formed by representatives from IBGE and from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA).

Due to users’ needs of harvest data, the surveys relative to Cereals, Legumes and Oilseeds (cotton seed, peanut, rice, beans, castor beans, corn, soybean, oat, rye, barley, sunflower, sorghum, wheat and triticale) have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency of the Ministry of Agriculture (CONAB), a subdivision of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). That initiative is the result of a process (started in October, 2007) of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops.