In October 2012, in the seasonally adjusted series, the industrial output registered a growth of 0.9% over the immediately previous month, after recording a drop of 0.6% in September, when it interrupted three consecutive months of positive results. In the comparison with the same month a year ago, the industrial sector posted an output expansion (2.3%), interrupting 13 months of negative rates in this kind of comparison.

As a result, the accumulated index for the first ten months of the year (-2.9%) registered a reduction in the drop intensity over the figures seen in the previous months. The annual rate, which is the accumulated indicator of the last twelve months, retracting 2.7% in October 2012, stopped the downward trend started in October 2010 (11.8%) and registered less intense negative results than the ones seen in August (-2.9%) and September (-3.1%). The quarterly moving average grew 0.6%.

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The industrial activity posted a rise in the production pace in October (0.9%) in the comparison with the immediately previous month, although this month’s result registered just two of the four categories of use and 13 of the 27 sectors with positive rates.  It is worth mentioning the positive behavior of the industrial output in the last months, for the sector accumulated an expansion of 2.3% between May and October, eliminating the losses observed in the first five months of the year (-2.2%).  By categories of use, in the same period (May-October), the main gain occurred in durable consumer goods (9.2%), leveraged at a great extent by the larger production of automobiles and house appliances of the “white line”. The other positive results were recorded by semi- and non-durable consumer goods (2.6%), intermediate goods (1.5%) and capital goods (0.1%). In the seasonally adjusted series, the evolution of the quarterly moving average reinforces this moment of pace gain in the industrial output, since it kept the upward trend started last July.

Such a greater dynamism was also seen in the comparison against same month a year ago, for the industrial sector marked a rise in the output of October 2012, reversing the 13 months of negative results in this kind of comparison. This is due to the pace rise in the industrial output this month, but also to the calendar effect, since October 2012 had two more workdays than October 2011. In the indicators accumulated in the year and in the last 12 months, the negative indexes remain, but with a reduction of the drop intensity over the figures registered in the previous months. 

Of the 27 sectors surveyed, 13 record growth from September to October

With the 0.9% growth seen in the industry overall between September and October, the level of production in the sector was 3.4% below the record level reached in May last year. The expansion in the pace of the activity in October reached 13 of the 27 sectors investigated, with a highlight to the advances registered by mining and quarrying (8.6%), machinery and equipment (6.3%) and Motor Vehicles (3.7%). Of particular note is that, with this month’s result, the former activity interrupted a negative behavior seen since last June – a period in which it accumulated a 4.5% loss; the second activity recovered part of the 9.4% loss observed between July and September; and the latter eliminated the fall of almost 1.2% seen in the previous month. Other relevant positive contributions on the industry average came from medical, optical and other equipment (22.8%), food (1.7%), basic metals (2.6%) and toiletry, soaps, detergents and cleaning articles (5.9%) Conversely, among the activities that posted drops in the production, the most important contributions to the overall result were registered by pharmaceutical products (-5.2%), petroleum refinement and alcohol production (-2.6%), publishing, printing and reproduction of recorded media (-3.8%), other transportation equipment (-4.2%) and office machines and computer equipment (-6.6%). It is worth highlighting that, except for the last sector, which registered negative rates for the second month in a row, the remaining activities posted positive results last September: 5.8%, 0.7%, 0.4% and 4.1%, respectively.

Among the categories of use, still considering the comparison with the immediately previous month, durable consumer goods (1.4%) and intermediate goods (0.6%) recorded increases in the output in October 2012, after  registering, respectively, drops of 1.3% and 0.9% last September. The sectors of capital goods (-0.6%) and of semi- and non-durable consumer goods (-0.3%) had negative results this month. The former accumulated a 1.7% loss in the last three months of output drops and the latter interrupted two months in a row of positive rates, period in which it accumulated an expansion of 1.6%.

Quarterly Moving Average grows 0.6% in October

In the seasonally adjusted series, the evolution of the quarterly moving average index for the industry overall marked a growth of 0.6% in the quarter ended in October against the previous month, after advancing 0.7% in August and 0.4% in September. Among the categories of use, in relation to the movement of this index on margin, the durable consumer goods (0.9%) signaled the most significant expansion and kept the upward trend initiated last April.  The sectors of intermediate goods (0.6%) and of semi- and non-durable consumer goods (0.4%) also had positive rates this month, both with three months in a row of expansion and accumulating, respectively, gains of 1.8% and of 1.7%.  The sector of capital goods, after falling 0.6% in October over the previous month’s standard, recorded the only negative result and intensified the falling pace over September’s index (-0.1%).

Industrial output advances 2.3% in comparison with October 2011

In the comparison with the same month a year ago, the industrial output advanced 2.3% in October 2012, the first positive result since August last year in this kind of confront, with a disseminated profile of positive rates, since the majority (21) of the 27 sectors  surveyed posted output expansions.   It is worth mentioning that October 2012 (22 days) had two workdays more than the same month a year ago (20). The sectors of other transportation equipment (16.2%), machinery and equipment (5.2%), medical, optical and other equipment (29.8%) and of food (2.6%) exerted the major positive influences in the formation of the industry average this month. They were mainly pushed by the greater production of airplanes, in the first sector, wall/window air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, kitchen stoves, compressors for refrigeration devices, washing machines and ball bearings, needles and cylinders, in the second, programmable logic controllers and watches, in the third and crystallized sugar, in the last.      Other relevant positive contributions to the industry overall came from fabricated metal products (8.7%), other chemical products (3.2%), mining and quarrying industries (3.9%); pharmaceutical products (4.2%) and rubber and plastic (4.5%). In terms of products, the most important positive pressures in these sectors came from, respectively, parts and accessories for steam boilers; herbicides for agricultural use and insecticides for domestic and agricultural use; iron ore; medicine; rubber and plastic parts and accessories for motor vehicles.    On the other hand, still considering the comparison with October 2011, among the six sectors that reduced the output, the main impacts were seen in office machinery and computer equipment (-19.7%) and publishing, printing and reproduction of recorded media (-6.0%), pushed at a great extent by the items computers and video monitors, in the former, and books, magazine and newspapers, in the latter.  

Among the categories of use, comparing with the same month a year ago, durable consumer goods (13.6%) recorded the sharpest advance in October 2012. It should be noted that this was the third consecutive positive result and the most intense since February 2011 (17.6%), after 11 months in a row of negative rates in this kind of comparison. In the formation of this month’s index, the segment was particularly influenced by the larger production of automobiles (23.8%) and of house appliances of the “white line” (19.2%), followed by the positive impacts registered by furniture articles (9.9%) and cell phones (6.9%). In this category of use, the main negative impacts came from motorcycles (-34.0%) and, to a lower extent, from house appliances of the “brown line” (-0.4%).

Still comparing to October 2011, the segments of semi- and non-durable consumer goods (2.5%) and of intermediate goods (1.9%) also presented output growth. The former advanced slightly above the industry average (2.3%) and interrupted a sequence of six months of negative rates, and the latter posted the greatest advance since May last year (2.3%).  The expansion in the production of semi- and non-durable consumer goods was influenced by the growth in all groups, with a highlight to the advance of 14.7% seen in fuels, due to a greater production of motor gasoline and alcohol.  The other positive results were observed in the groups of food and beverages for domestic consumption (1.2%), other non-durable (0.8%) and semi-durable goods (1.0%), pushed at a great extent by the larger production of beer, draft beer, frozen poultry meat and giblets, in the first subsector, medicine, in the second and synthetic footwear for women, in the last. In the segment of intermediate goods, this month’s positive performance was mostly influenced by the advances in the production of food products (7.2%), mining and quarrying industries (3.9%), fabricated metal products (12.6%), other chemical products (2.2%), rubber and plastic (4.3%), basic metals (0.3%) and textiles (0.8%), whereas the negative impacts came from petroleum refinement and alcohol production (-7.4%), motor vehicles (-2.9%), non-metallic minerals (-0.5%) and pulp, paper and paper products (-0.4%).  In this category of use, it is also worth mentioning the results coming from the segments of inputs for civil construction (3.6%), which is growing again after a drop of 3.2% in September, and of packaging (3.9%), which posted a pace gain over August’s (0.3%) and September’s indexes (0.8%).

The production of capital goods (-5.8%) was the only negative one among the categories of use in October 2012 in the confront with the same month a year ago. It was worthy mentioning that this was the 14^th consecutive negative result in this kind of comparison, but the least intense since last December (-0.4%).  In this month’s index, the segment was influenced by negative rates seen in the majority of its subsectors, with a highlight to the drop recorded in capital goods for transportation equipment (-3.3%), still very much pushed by the lower production of trucks, tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers and chassis with engine for trucks and buses. Of note are the negative rates seen in capital goods for miscellaneous use (-6.8%), for construction (-22.8%) and for electricity (-4.1%), whereas the subsector of agricultural capital goods (7.0%) and goods for industrial purposes, with a change of 0.1%, marked the positive results in this category of use in the monthly index of October 2012.

Accumulated index in the ten months of 2012 shrinks 2.9%

In the accumulated index for the first ten months of 2012, over the same period in the previous year, the drop was of 2.9% for the industry overall, with negative rates in all categories of use, 17 of the 27 sectors, 48 of the 76 subsectors and 58.9% of the 755 products surveyed.  Among the activities, the production of motor vehicles, presenting a drop of 13.9%, remained with the major negative influence over the general index, reinforced mainly by the reduction in the production of the majority of the products surveyed in the sector (approximately 80%). The highlights were the lowest production of trucks, tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers, chassis with engine for buses and trucks, diesel engine for buses and trucks, car parts, automobiles and vehicles for the transportation of goods.  It is also worth mentioning the negative contribution from electronic material and communication equipment and apparatus (-14.4%), food products (-2.9%), machinery and equipment (-3.2%), office machinery and computer equipment (-13.6%), basic metals (-4.3%), publishing, printing and reproduction of recorded media (-5.3%), electrical machinery and apparatus (-6.3%), apparel and accessories (-10.6%).  In these activities, the highlights were, respectively, the lower production of items such as cell phones and switching devices for telephony; crystallized sugar; wheel loaders, central air conditioning devices or equipment, microwave ovens, machine centers for metal manufacturing, motor graders, appliances to lift or transport goods and window/wall air conditioners; video monitors for computers, printers and computers; carbon steel ingots, blocks, rods or plates; books, magazines and newspapers; electric engines and “no breaks”; pants, dresses and cotton T-shirts.   On the other hand, among the 10 segments that posted an increase in the output, the main influences were exerted by the sectors of other chemical products (4.1%), petroleum refinement and alcohol production (3.8%) and other transportation equipment (8.6%), especially reinforced by a larger production of herbicides for agricultural purposes, paint and varnish for construction in the first sector, motor gasoline and diesel fuel and other oil fuels, in the second, and airplanes in the last.

Among the categories of use, the nature of the results for January-October 2012 confirmed the least dynamic outputs for capital goods (-11.8%) and durable consumer goods (-4.3%), especially influenced by the lowest production of capital goods for transportation (trucks, tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers, chassis with engine for trucks and buses and vehicles for the transportation of goods), in the first group; and of cell phones, motorcycles, microwave ovens, air conditioners and automobiles, in the second. The production of intermediate goods saw a drop of 1.8% in the accumulated index for the first ten months of 2012, while semi- and non-durable consumer goods registered a negative change of 0.3%.