IBGE conducted, in October, the first estimate for the 2013 harvest in the Southeast, South and... 

IBGE conducted, in October, the first estimate for the 2013 harvest in the Southeast, South and Central-West regions and in the states of Rondônia, Maranhão, Piauí and Bahia.  In this first prognosis, the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds for 2013 is estimated at 170.9 million metric tons, 5.1% higher than the amount harvested in 2012, mostly due to the recovery and rise expected for the South region (20,8%),  in case of favorable weather conditions (differently from what happened in 2012), when the area to be harvested might grow 2.5%. The Central-West region presents the same percentage of area expansion (2.5%), pushed by the good prices of the products, mainly soybean and corn.

The figures estimated in the surveyed regions and states were summed to estimates based on the  information obtained for the Federation Units in the previous years. But, because of the agricultural calendar, there are no first estimates for the Federation Units yet.  Field information accounts for 65.2% of the expected national production, whereas the prospects represent 34.8% of the current total estimated value.

Among the ten products analyzed for 2013 summer harvest, six post positive changes in production: beans - 1^st harvest (22.7%), soybean (21.5%), tobacco (6.8%), corn - 1^st harvest (4.7%), cassava (2.3%) and rice (0.4%). Four products had negative changes: peanut - 1st harvest (7.8%), cotton (7.8%), onion(3.6%) and potato - 1^st harvest (1.1%).

In relation to the estimated area, the positive highlights are beans 1^st harvest (17.5%), soybean (5.7%), corn 1^st harvest (3.0%) and onion (0.2%). The products that might register decrease are upland cotton (9.0%), potato - 1st harvest (3.9%), cassava (1.5%), rice (1.2%), tobacco (0.4%) and peanut - 1st harvest (0.3%).

In October, 2012’s expected grain harvest is 1.5% higher than 2011’s

The tenth estimate of the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds, carried out by the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production, points to a production of 162.6 million metric tons, 1.5% higher than in 2011 (160.1 million metric tons), 0.7% lower than September’s  estimate (163.7 million).  The area to be harvested in 2012, of 49.0 million hectares, presents an increase of 0.6%, compared with the harvested area in 2011, and a decrease of 0.5% in relation to the previous month. The three main crops -rice, corn and soybean-, which together cover 91.4% of the volume of the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds, account for 85.1% of the area to be harvested. Their changes in relation to the previous year are negative for rice (15.0%) and soybean (12.5%) and positive for corn (27.1%) in relation to the area. Rice had a 13.3% reduction and corn and soybean, increases of 8.2% and 3.6%, respectively.

The complete publication can be accessed at www.ibge.gov.br/home/estatistica/indicadores/agropecuaria/lspa.

Among the major regions, the volume of the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds presents the following distribution: Central-West region, 70.6 million metric tons; South, 56.0 million metric tons; Southeast, 19.1 million metric tons; Northeast, 12.1 million metric tons and North, 4.7 million metric tons. Compared with the lastest harvest, increases are recorded for the North, 7.4%, Southeast, 11.1% and Central-West regions, 25.9%, whereas decreases are registered for the South, 17.4% and Northeast regions, 16.9%.

In 2012, Mato Grosso leads the national production of grains with a contribution of 24.9%, followed by Paraná, with 19.1% and Rio Grande do Sul, with 12.1%. Altogether, the three states recorded 56.1% of the national overall.

October 2012’s estimate in relation to 2011’s production

Among the 26 products selected, 13 presented positive change in the estimate compared  to the previous year:  peanut in the shell 1^st   harvest (25.6%), peanut in husk 2^nd  harvest (18.9%), oat in grain (11.9%), potato 3^rd harvest  (13.9%), cacao nut (4.0%), coffee in grain - arabica (15.9%), coffee in grain - canephora (10.8%), onion (5.1%), barley in grain (3.1%), beans in grain 2^nd   harvest (0.8%), beans in grain 3^rd  harvest (9.9%), corn in grain 2^nd  harvest (73.4%) and sorghum in grain (3.9%).  The products with a  negative change are upland cotton seed (2.2%), paddy rice (15.0%), potato 1^st  harvest  (8.5%), potato  2^nd  harvest (18.9%), sugarcane (7.5%), beans in grain 1^st  harvest (36.3%), orange (3.9%), castor beans (74.7%), cassava (4.4%), corn in grain 1^st harvest (2.8%), soybean in grain (12.5%), wheat in grain (14.9%) and triticale in grain (0.6%).

October’s estimate in relation to September 2012 

The highlights in terms of the monthly positive changes  in the production of  the three items, comparatively to the September are:  beans in grain 1^st harvest (0.9%), beans in grain 3^rd harvest (4.1%) and sorghum in grain (1.8%); as to the negative changes, six items are listed: oat in grain (9.2%), barley in grain (4.9%), beans in grain 2^nd harvest (4.7%), corn in grain 1^st harvest (0.7%), corn in grain 2^nd harvest (1.4%) and wheat in grain (8.5%).

Estimate’s highlights 

BEANS (in grain) – The national production of beans in grain, estimated in 2.842.367 metric tons, indicates a reduction of 0.9% against September’s information. This volume of the production is distributed  in 43.7% of the first harvest, 39.4% of the second harvest and 16.9% of beans of the third harvest. The 1^st harvest recorded a production of 1.242.768 metric tons (0.9% higher than the previous survey).  The estimate that most affect the current information comes from Goiás – where an increase of 4.4% in the production is expected, due to the  5.9% increase in the yield, from 2.183 kg/ha to 2.312 kg/ha – and from Minas Gerais, which reports an advance of 2.2%, due the increase of 1.3% in the harvested area and 0.9% in the yield.  Beans 2^nd  harvest register reductions inthe harvested area (3.8%), average yield (0.9%) and production (4.7%). Goiás reports a production 42.4% lower, a consequence of reductions of 39.4% in the harvested area and 5.0% in the yield. (The state had already informed, in July, a drop of 6.6% in its 2^nd  harvest of beans, due the lack of water for irrigation. Since then, the weather has not improved and the state stopped making reports  in August and September, so that the current information is accumulated and registering a  production fall of 35.989 metric tons.  Minas Gerais also presents reduction of 13.8% in the production of beans 2^nd harvest, resulting from the 6.9% contraction  in the harvested area and 7.4% drop in the yield.  The crops of Minas Gerais also felt the low availability of  water for irrigation, due to a period without rains. As to beans 3^rd harvest, the growth estimate of 4.1% is the reflex of an increase of 4.1% in the harvested area. Minas Gerais  contributed to this increase, because of the growth of the planted area in 8.363 ha and an advance of 11.8% in the production, due the increases of 10.3% of the harvested area and 1.3% in the average yield. It is worth highlighting that beans are fast-growing plants, around 90 days, very demanding in relation to soil moisture; with the good market prices, producers invested in the planting of beans 3^rd  harvest, which is all irrigated.

MILHO (em grão) – A produção nacional de milho em grão, prevista em 71.532.929 toneladas, é menor 1,1% que a avaliação de setembro. A 1ª safra diminuiu 0,7% e a 2ª safra, 1,4%, comparando com a informação do mês anterior. A 1ª safra de milho está encerrada, mas houve reajuste negativo de 1,0% na área plantada e de 1,2% na área colhida. Negative revaluations in the production in relation to September's information were seen in nine states, most of them due to rectifications at the end of the crop. For the 2^nd harvest of corn the expected production is of 38,328,705 metric tons, with a reduction of 1.2% in the planted area and of 1.9% in the area to be harvested, in relation to September's data.  Such a decrease in the production is mainly due to the Sates of Sergipe (328,802 metric tons less), Goiás (167,860 metric tons less) and Bahia (70,475 metric tons less), where the areas to be harvested presented reductions of 14.5%, 6.2% and 39.7%, respectively.

SORGHUM (in grain) - October's information presents a 1.8% increase against September, as a consequence of the growth in the yield, which rose 1.8% in the national average.  The states responsible for the growth are Goiás, Minas Gerais, Mato Grosso do Sul and the Federal District.

WINTER CEREALS (in grain) – The expected production, area to be harvested and average yield for wheat, the main product of this time of the year, in a national level, when compared to September, are lower, respectively, in 8.5%, 0.4% and 8.1%. The State of Rio Grande do Sul, the biggest national producer, expects a production of 2,295,700 metric tons (a fall of 15.2%) in an area to be harvested of 977,414 ha (2.1% smaller), when compared to the previous estimate. The contrary weather conditions at the end of September and in the beginning of October, frosts and hailstorms in the grain filling and developing phase of the plants were crucial to the decreases. In Paraná, over the previous month, the average yield and the production fell, respectively, 3.1% and 1.2%. The negative changes, in relation to the previous month, in the plantation of oat (9.2%) and barley (4.9%), are also due to harsh weather conditions occurred in Rio Grande do Sul, which determined a partial loss of the area and a reduction in the plantations’ average yield.

____________________________________________________

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) is a monthly survey to forecast and monitor the harvest of the main agricultural products, whose information is obtained by means of the Municipal Commissions (COMEA) and/or Regional Commissions (COREA). The latter are consolidated in state level by the Agriculture Statistics Coordinating Groups (GCEA) and, later, evaluated at national level, by the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics (CEPAGRO). This Commission is formed by representatives from IBGE and from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA).

Due to users’ needs of harvest data, the surveys relative to Cereals, Legumes and Oilseeds (cotton seed, peanut, rice, beans, castor beans, corn, soybean, oat, rye, barley, sunflower, sorghum, wheat and triticale) have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency of the Ministry of Agriculture (CONAB), a subdivision of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). That initiative is the result of a process (started in October, 2007) of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops.