In September, the industrial output fell by 1.0%, in relation to August, in the seasonally adjusted series, after recording positive rates for three consecutive months, period in which accumulated an expansion of 2.2%.  Against September 2011, the industry overall posted a drop of 3.8% in September 2012, the tenth negative result in a row in this kind of comparison. Thus, at the end of the third quarter of 2012, the index of the industrial sector was negative in relation to the same period of the previous year (-2.8%), but stood 1.0% above the level seen in the second quarter, in the seasonally adjusted series.  The accumulated in 2012 recorded a drop of -3.5%. The annual rate, which is the accumulated indicator of the last twelve months, after retracting 3.1% in September 2012, went on a downward trend started in October 2010 (11.8%) and registered the most significant negative rate since January 2010 (-5.0%). The complete publication of the survey can be accessed at www.ibge.gov.br/english/estatistica/indicadores/industria/pimpfbr/default.shtm.

Industrial output recedes in 16 of the 27 sectors surveyed

The 1.0% drop observed in the industry overall, between August and September, had a general profile of negative rates, reaching most (16) of the 27 sectors investigated, with a highlight to the contraction recorded by the sector of machinery and equipment (-4.8%), which marked the second negative consecutive result, accumulating in this period a loss of 8.5%.   Other relevant negative contributions to the industry overall came from: other chemical products (-3.2%), food products (-1.9%), toiletry, soap and cleaning articles (-10.0%), tobacco (-11.7%) - offsetting part of the 35.6% recorded last August - mining and quarrying industries (-1,6%), beverages (-2.2%), motor vehicles (-0,7%) and furniture (-5,3%).  Conversely, among the activities that increased production, the most important performances to the overall average were registered by pharmaceutical products (6.0%) and other transportation equipment (4.4%)

Among the categories of use, still considering the comparison with the immediately previous month, the sectors of durable consumer goods (-1.4%) posted the sharpest downfalls in September 2012, the former interrupting the three-month sequence of positive results, which accumulated an increase of 9.0%, and the latter eliminating part of the 2.9% gain accumulated between June and August. The sector of capital goods (-0.6%) also registered a negative rate in September, increasing the drop intensity over the previous month result (-0.4%).  The sector of semi- and non-durable consumer goods (-0.9%) repeated the immediately previous month’s pattern, after registering an advance of 1.5% last August. 

Quarterly Moving Average registers 0.4% in September

In the seasonally adjusted series, the evolution of the quarterly moving average index for the industry overall had a negative change of 0.4% in the quarter ended in September against the previous month’s rate, but there was a slight reduction of the intensity growth over last August’s index (0.7%). Among the categories of use, in relation to the movement of this index on margin, the most intense expansion was recorded by durable consumer goods (0.8%), which kept the upward trend started last April.  The segments of intermediate goods (0.6%) and of semi- and non-durable consumer goods (0.3%) also recorded positive rates this month, both accumulating a gain of 1.2% in two months in a row of expansion.  The sector of capital goods (0.0%) remained unchanged over the immediately previous month, after registering an advance of 0.5% last August.

Industry posts a drop of 3.8% in September 2012 over September 2011

As compared to the same month of the previous year, the industrial output fell 3.8% in January 2012, with a widespread profile of negative rates, since the greatest part (19) of the 27 sectors surveyed posted reduction in the production.  It should be noted that September 2012 (19 days) had two less workdays in relation to same month a year ago (21). The sector of food products, contracting 9.7%, exerted the greatest negative influence in the formation of the industry average, pushed by the downturn in the production of approximately 70% of the products surveyed in the sector, with a highlight to the lower production of crystallized sugar and concentrated orange juice.  Other relevant negative contributions to the national overall came from machinery and equipment (-11.2%), motor vehicles (-7.2%), office machinery and computer equipment (-25.9%), basic metals (-5.7%), publishing, printing and reproduction of recorded media (-6.3%), electronic material and communication equipment and apparatus (-11.2%) and mining and quarrying industries (-4.1%). In terms of products, the most important negative pressures in these sectors were exerted, respectively, by microwave ovens, machining centers for metal manufacturing, wheel loaders, motor graders, compressors used in refrigeration equipments and central air conditioner devices or equipments; trucks, tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers, car parts, diesel engines and parts and accessories for engine systems; computers and video monitors; carbon steel ingots, blocks, rods and plates and other steel alloy bars; books, CDs and newspapers; TV sets and cell phones; and iron ores and crude petroleum oil. On the other hand, still considering the comparison with September 2011, among the eight sectors that expanded the production, the main impacts were seen in pharmaceutical products (13.7%), petroleum refinement and alcohol production (6.3%) and other transportation equipment (12.1%), pushed at a great extent by medicines, in the first sector, motor gasoline, diesel fuel and other fuels, in the second, and airplanes, in the last.

Capital goods recorded the sharpest drop in the September 2012/2011 comparison

Among the categories of use, still comparing with the same month a year ago, the segment of capital goods (-14.1%) recorded the sharpest fall in September 2012, influenced by the negative results in its  subsectors, with a highlight to the 9.0% fall registered by capital goods for transportation equipment, still very influenced by the lower production of trucks, tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers and chassis with engine for trucks and buses.  It is also worth mentioning the negative rates seen in capital goods for miscellaneous use (-20.2%), for construction (-39.2%), for industrial purposes (-9.3%), for electricity (-10.3%) and agriculture (-6.0%).

Still considering the comparison with September 2011, the segments of intermediate goods (-3.0%) and of semi- and non-durable consumer goods (-2.2%) also recorded negative rates, but less intense than the industrial average (-3.8%).  In the first sector, the negative result was driven at a great extent by the downturns in the manufacture of products related to food (-15.1%), motor vehicles (-14.9%), basic metals (-5.7%), mining and quarrying industries (-4.1%), non-metallic minerals (-4.0%), other chemical products (-2.1%), textiles (-5.9%) and pulp, paper and paper products (-0.2%), while the positive influences were exerted by petroleum refinement and alcohol production (9.5%), fabricated metal products (3.3%) and rubber and plastic (0.6%). Still concerning this category of use, the other highlights are the results from the groups of inputs for civil construction (-3.2%), offsetting two consecutive months of positive results, and for packaging (0.7%), which posted a slight pace acceleration over last August’s index (0.3%). The output reduction in the semi- and non-durable consumer goods (-2.2%) was influenced at a great extent by the negative results from the groups of food and beverages for domestic consumption (-4.9%) and of semi-durable goods (-9.4%), mostly due to the drops in the production of concentrated orange juice, cured pork and related products, chilled meat of bovine animals and chicken giblets, in the first subsector, and of women’s leather footwear, CDs and women’s pants, in the second. On the other hand, the subsectors of others and non-durable (1.7%) and of fuels (1.5%) registered the positive impacts in this category of use, leveraged by the greater production of medicine and motor gasoline, respectively.

The production of durable consumer goods (2.9%) was the only one with a positive rate among the categories of use, in September 2012 in contrast with the same month a year ago.  Of particular note is the fact that it was the second consecutive positive result after eleven months in a row of negative rates in this kind of comparison. In the formation of the index this month, the segment was particularly influenced by the larger production of automobiles (17.7%) and of house appliances of the “white line” (8.6%). In this category of use, the main negative impacts came from a lower production of motorcycles (-29.5%), cell phones (-10.2%), house appliances of the “brown line” (-16.5%) and of furniture articles (01.1%).

Industry shrank 2.8% in Q3

Concerning quarterly bases, the industrial sector, withdrawing 2.8% in the third quarter of the year, has been posting negative results for four quarters in a row, but with a reduction in the falling pace, since in the second quarter of 2012 there was a 4.5% loss - both comparisons over the same period a year ago.  Among the categories of use, durable consumer goods, which went from -7.1% in the second quarter of the year to 0.0% in the third, showed the highest pace gain between the two periods, especially influenced by the greater production of automobiles and of house appliances of the “white line”, which recorded advances of 8.5% and of 17.5% in the third quarter of the year. The segment of intermediate goods (from -3.4% to -1.7%) also pointed reduction in the fall intensity between the second and the third quarter of the year, whereas semi- and non-durable consumer goods, dropping 1.6% in the July-September period of 2012, repeated the result seen in the second quarter of the year. The sector of capital goods, from -11.7% in quarter 2 of 2012 to –12.2% in quarter 3, kept posting the most intense negative rate, with an increase in the falling pace between the two periods.

The accumulated index of January-September 2012 stays at -3.5%

In the accumulated index for the nine months of 2012, over the same period in the previous year, the retraction was of 3.5% for the industry overall, with negative rates in all categories of use, 17 of the 27 sectors , 48 of the 76 subsectors and 59.6% of the 755 products surveyed.  Among the activities, the production of motor vehicles, presenting a drop of 15.4%, kept exerting the major negative influence over the general index formation, reinforced mainly by the reduction in the production of the majority of the products surveyed in the sector (approximately 85%), with a highlight for the lowest production of trucks, tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers, automobiles, chassis with engine for buses and trucks, car parts, vehicles for goods transportation and diesel engines for trucks and buses.  It is also worth mentioning the negative contributions from food (-3.5%), electronic material and communication equipment and apparatus (-16.3%), machinery and equipment (-4.1%), basic metals (-4.8%), office machinery and computer equipment (-13.0%), publishing, printing and reproduction of recorded media (-5.4%), electrical machinery and apparatus (-7.5%), apparel and accessories (-11.2%) and tobacco (-15.3%).  Among these activities, the highlights are, respectively, the lower production of the items crystallized sugar; cell phones and switching devices for telephony; wheel loaders, central air conditioning devices and equipment, microwave ovens, machining centers to process metals, window/wall air conditioners, equipment for lifting or transporting goods; carbon steel ingots, blocks, rods or plates; video monitors for computers, printers and computers; books, magazines and newspapers; electric engines and no breaks; women’s pants, dresses and cotton shirts; and processed tobacco.   On the other hand, among the nine activities that posted an increase in the output, the main influences on the industry overall were exerted by the sectors of petroleum refinement and alcohol production (4.3%), other chemical products (3.9%), and other transportation equipment (7.7%), especially pushed by a larger production of motor gasoline, diesel fuel and other fuels, in the first sector, herbicides for agricultural purposes and paints and varnish for construction, in the second, and airplanes, in the last.

Among the categories of use, the results’ profile for the January-September 2012 period confirmed the least dynamism for capital goods (-12.4%) and durable consumer goods (-6.2%), mostly driven by the lower production of capital goods for transportation (trucks, tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers, chassis with engines for trucks and buses, and vehicles for goods transportation), in the first segment, and for cell phones, microwave ovens, automobiles and motorcycle, in the second.   Intermediate goods faced a decrease of 2.2% in the accumulated index for the nine months of 2012, while semi- and non-durable consumer goods registered a negative change of 0.6%.