The national production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds points to 163.9 million metric tons, 2.2% higher than the harvest obtained in 2011 (160.1 million metric tons) and 0.5% lower than the estimate of August (164.5 million metric tons). These results are presented in the ninth estimate of the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) in 2012.
The area to be harvested in 2012, of 49.2 million hectares, presents an increase of 1.1% compared to the harvested area in 2011 and a decrease of 0.5% in relation to the previous month’s estimate. The three main cultures (rice, corn and soybean), which altogether represent 91.1% of the production volume, account for 85.0% of the area to be harvested, registering, in relation to the previous year, a reduction of 13.3% for rice and a rise of 9.9% and 3.4%, for corn and soybean, respectively.  As to production, there was a rise of 28.5% for corn and decrease for rice and soybean, respectively, of 15.0% and 12.8%, comparing to the year 2011.
The complete publication can be accessed at www.ibge.gov.br/english/estatistica/indicadores/agropecuaria/lspa.

Among the Major Regions, the volume of production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds presents the following distribution: Central-West region, 70.7 million metric tons; South, 56.5 million metric tons; Southeast, 19.3 million metric tons; Northeast, 12.7 million metric tons and North, 4.5 million metric tons. Compared to the latest harvest, increases are recorded for the North, 3.6%, Southeast, 12.0% and Central-West, 26.0% and decreases, for the South, 16.7% and Northeast, 13.0%.

September’s estimate in relation to the production obtained in 2011

Among the 26 products selected, 13 presented positive change in the production estimate in relation to the previous year:  peanut in the shell 1^st harvest (25.6%), peanut in the shell 2^nd harvest (18.9%), oat in grain (23.2%), potato 3^rd harvest (14.4%), cacao nut (4.0%), coffee in grain – arabica (16.2%), coffee in grain – canephora (11,1%),  onion (5.1%), barley in grain (8.4%), beans in grain 2^nd harvest (5.7%), beans in grain 3^rd harvest (5.6%), corn in grain 2^nd harvest (75.8%) and sorghum in grain (2.0%).  Other 13 products record a negative change: herbaceous cotton seed  (1.3%), paddy rice (15.0%), potato 1st harvest (8.1%), potato 2nd harvest (18.8%), sugarcane (7.7%), beans in grain 1^st harvest (36.9%), orange (4.0%), castor beans (62.3%), cassava (3.8%), corn in grain 1^st harvest (2.1%), soybean in grain (12.8%), wheat in grain (7.1%) and triticale in grain (0.4%).

September’s estimate against August 2012

Monthly changes in the production estimates of eight products stood out, compared to August: wheat in grain (+7.8%), coffee in grain – canephora (+2.3%), corn in grain 2^nd harvest  (+0.8%), soybean  in grain (-0.9%), corn in grain 1^st harvest (-2.2%), sorghum in grain (-2.6%), orange (-4.4%) and herbaceous raw cotton (-5.8%).

Estimate’s highlights

HERBACEOUS COTTON (in seed) – The Central-West region is responsible for 68.4% of cotton national production this year.  In Mato Grosso, where the rainfalls favored the culture, the late planting, after soybeans, generated a 9.1% increase in the average yield .  In Mato Grosso do Sul the rains also contributed to plantation, and even with a high density system (lower average yield), productivity rose 8.8%.  Conversely, in Goiás, the production was 13.3% lower than in the previous year, which is mostly due to the reduction of the harvested area (-11.3%) and in the average yield (-2.3%).

In the Northeast region, the extreme drought brought a reduction in the production (17.0%), against 2011. In Bahia, where there is the greatest concentration of the region’s culture, the average yield was 16.2% lower than that of 2011, influenced by the poor distribution of rainfall.

PADDY RICE – Rice growing in Brazil suffered a reduction of 13.3% in the harvested area, 15.0% in the production and 2.0% in the average yield, comparatively to the 2011 harvest. In the South region, which contributes with 78.6% of the national production of paddy rice, there is a reduction of 11.1% in the production estimate.  The main regional producer, Rio Grande do Sul, reduced the planted area in 11.0% due to the low prices practiced and to the water scarcity in the reservoirs at the time they decided to plant.   The droughts were also responsible for the reduction in the production estimate in the Northeast region, with a downfall of 38.8% in relation to 2011. In this region, there was a loss of 18,653 hectares in the 2012 harvest, against 112 hectares recorded as total loss in 2011.

COFFEA ARABICA (in grain) – The rise, in September, of 0.1% in the national estimate of the 2012 harvest production, is attributed to the state of São Paulo, whose change, individually, is of 13.3% over the previous month. In Bahia (-22.6%) and in Ceará (-18.3%), the decreases are attributable to the drought that rages the Northeast region this year. Espírito Santo, another producer of coffea arabica, presents a decline of 2.9%.  Minas Gerais, the biggest Brazilian producer, did not post significant changes

The national harvest of coffea arabica for 2012, despite the delays in the harvest, is close to its end and is estimated in 38.1 million bags of 60kg, equivalent to 2,284,439 metric tons, 16.2% higher than in 2011. The harvest area shows an increase of 1.0% in relation to the latest harvest, totaling 1,590,975 hectares. The total area of plantation is 1,776,320 hectares, 1.4% larger than that of 2011. The estimated rise in the average yield (15.1%) is due to the arabica’s characteristic of alternating years of high and low yields.

Minas Gerais, the greatest Brazilian producer of arabica, claims that, besides the fact that 2012 is a year of “full harvest”, the market conditions in 2011 stimulated producers to invest in the culture, generating a rise in the production of 17.6% in 2012. From January’s second week until the beginning of March, scarce rainfalls compromised grain filling in some regions of Minas Gerais.  Coffee growers from Minas Gerais faced delays in the harvest due to unexpected winter rainfalls and products of a low quality, partly picked on the ground.

COFFEA CANEPHORA (in grain) – The country, with a harvest close to the end, might yield 769.305 metric tons (12.8 million bags of 60 kg), 2.3% greater than August’s estimate, representing a 11.1% increase in relation to 2011. In September, Espírito Santo, the first national producer of conilon, with 77.3% of contribution in the total Brazilian production, rose its estimate for the harvest in 2.3%.   The state has the Country’s greatest yield for this kind of coffee (an average of 1,999 kg or 33.3 bags/hectare).   Other states that produce conilon also saw increases in September, namely: Bahia (9.2%) and Minas Gerais (0.9%). It was a favorable year for production.

ORANGE – The national production of orange for 2012 is estimated at 19.032.285 metric tons (466.5 million boxes of 40.8 kg), 4.4% lower than August’s estimate and 4.0% lower than the previous harvest’s numbers. The total plantation area of the product in the Country is down 1,6% and the area to be harvested is 3.4% larger in this comparison with the monthly information.  The average yield is 23,537 kg/hectare.

São Paulo, the Country’s biggest producer with 76.1% of contribution to the national production, makes its first estimate for the 2012 harvest. The production, of 14,483,398 metric tons (355.0 million boxes) is lower than that of 2011 (5.5% less), not having suffered any changes throughout the year, once there were not other estimates during the harvest.  Some phytosanitary problems remain, such as CVC (Citrus Variegated Chlorosis), black spot, leprosis, citus canker and citrus greening, a very dangerous bacterial disease that has been demanding extreme measures by the government and brought serious consequences to the Chinese citriculture. The year 2012 was characterized, however, by the huge losses in the citriculture in São Paulo.  The excessive storage in the industries prevented the commercialization of the fruits, which, in some cases, rotted in the orchards. The crisis in the European Market and the trade sanctions imposed by the USA, great consumers of the Brazilian orange juice, are taken as the main reasons for the losses in the national citriculture.

Bahia, the second biggest producer, expects its production to be 1,012,327 metric tons (24.9 million boxes), 1.2% lower than August’s estimates. Minas Gerais also reduces its estimate this month in 0.1%, producing 865,928 metric tons (21.2 million boxes). Sergipe does not record changes this month, keeping 832,040 metric tons (20.4 million boxes). Paraná, also an important producer, does not present new estimates.

CORN (in grain) - The estimated production  of corn in grain, projected in 72,314,597 metric tons, is 0.6% lower than that of the August’s estimate.  The 1^st harvest declined 2.2% and the 2^nd rose 0.8%, as compared to the information of the previous month.

The 1^st harvest of corn has finished, but there was a negative adjustment of 2.2% in the production, and of 2.5% in the harvested area. In Santa Catarina, part of the production was destined to the cut of the whole plant in order to feed animals, therefore, not counted as corn in grain. Reviewed estimates of the production in relation to August’s information present negative results in other 12 states.

With the production estimated in 2.1% below that of 2011, despite the enlargement of the planted area in 1.1%, the harvested area shrank 4.8%, in the annual comparison. Those numbers reflect the damage caused by the drought in the summer harvest in the South and Northeast regions. In the South, the yield decreased 21.7%, and the production 19.1%, corresponding to a drop of almost 3.0 million metric tons in relation to the produced in the same period a year ago. The Northeast region, one of the most affected by the droughts, presented great reductions in the planted area (13.2%), in the harvested area (27.6%) and in the production (15,3%) in the average of the states. However, the Southeast rose the production in 12.9%, the harvested area in 4.4% and the yield in 8.1%.  The Central-West region estimates a production rise 42.3% bigger than that of the previous year, due to the rise of the harvested area in 26.6% and of the yield in 12.4%.

The expected production for the 2^nd harvest of corn is of 38,866,378 million tons, an increase of 0.8% in relation to August. The increase is due to the revaluation of the area and yield, which resulted in gains of 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively, as compared to the previous month. Mato Grosso do Sul was the state that most influenced this change in September, posting a gain in production of 312,317 metric tons (5.5%).  São Paulo (8.2%), Mato Grosso (0.3%) and Minas Gerais (1.7%) also influenced positively the production estimate.

The 2^nd harvest of corn in 2012 surpassed the 1^st harvest in more than 5.4 million metric tons.  The production was 75.8% bigger than the same harvest in 2011, with approximately 38,866,378 metric tons of the grain (16,761,605 metric tons more, in a planted area of 7.396.316 ha). This is the first year that the 2^nd harvest overcomes, in volume, the first. The increase is mostly due to the states of the Central-West region and to Paraná.  Mato Grosso is the biggest producer of this second planting period (38.8% of contribution), with a production projection 103.1% higher than that of 2011, in a harvested area of 2,646,966 hectares.  Paraná expects a production rise of 60.9%. It is worth mentioning the positive change in the production of Mato Grosso do Sul (81.4%), Goiás (52.4%), São Paulo (62.9%) and Minas Gerais (59.8%), in relation to 2011.

SOYBEANS (in grain) – Summer culture with a finished harvest, it suffered negative alterations of 0.3% in the area to be harvested, 0.9% in the production and 0.6% in the average yield. The adjustments in relation to the previous years that resulted in the decrease in the production were observed in Goiás (3.1%), Bahia (6.8%), Rio Grande do Sul (1.0%) and São Paulo (1.9%).

SORGHUM (in grain) – September’s data post a 2.6% drop in the production estimate over August, a consequence of the adjustment of the harvested area, which fell 4.7% in the national average, despite the 2.2% increase in the average yield. The fall reflects the weak performance of the sorghum in Bahia, which reduced its estimate for this month in 57,437 metric tons (59.8%), due to the reduction in the harvested area (38.8%) and in the average yield (34.3%). The producing areas of this state have been suffering from the droughts, which, besides stopping the normal plantations because of the lack of soil moisture, prevent plant development, reducing its productivity. Other Federation Units also showed decrease in the production estimate in relation to August:  Mato Grosso (0.9%), São Paulo (4.8%) and Rio Grande do Sul (0.6%). Sorghum is considered a second harvest culture, normally planted after summer harvests. This year, the crops took advantage from the rainy weather in the Central-West/Southeast, having the producers increased the investments in technology, once the market price rose, following the corn increase.  Only in Mato Grosso did the production rise 110.6% in relation to the previous year.

WHEAT (in grain) – In the monthly comparison, at a national level, the expected production, the planted area and the average yield are, respectively, 7.8%, 1.4% and 6.3% bigger, when compared to August . It is worth mentioning that Rio Grande do Sul (51.1%) and Paraná (40.3%) are responsible for 91.4% of the national production.

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) is a monthly survey to forecast and monitor the harvest of the main agricultural products, whose information is obtained by means of the Municipal Commissions (COMEA) and/or Regional Commissions (COREA). The latter are consolidated in state level by the Agriculture Statistics Coordinating Groups (GCEA) and, later, evaluated at national level, by the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics (CEPAGRO). This Commission is formed by representatives from IBGE and from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA).

Due to users’ needs of harvest data, the surveys relative to Cereals, Legumes and Oilseeds (cotton seed, peanut, rice, beans, castor beans, corn, soybean, oat, rye, barley, sunflower, sorghum, wheat and triticale) have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency of the Ministry of Agriculture (CONAB), a subdivision of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). That initiative is the result of a process (started in October, 2007) of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops.