The seventh estimate for the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds (cotton seed, peanuts, rice, beans, castor beans, corn, soybeans, oats, rye,  barley, sunflower seeds, sorghum and triticale) points to an output of about 163.3 million metric tons, in 2012, 2.0% above that of 2011 (160.1 million metric tons) and 1.6% bigger than in June. The area to be harvested in 2012, of 49.4 million hectares, presents increase of 1.5% over the 2011 figure, and increase of 0.1% over that of June. The three main crops, rice, corn and soybeans which, together, make up 91.0% of the output of cereals, legumes and oilseeds, account for 84.7% of the area to be harvested. Compared with the previous year, rice presented decrease of 11.6% in area, whereas corn and milk recorded increases of 9.6% and 3.7%, respectively. Concerning production, milk recorded the biggest result, 27%, but rice and soybeans faced decreases of 14.9% and 12.2% versus figures of 2011.  

The complete publication can be seen at www.ibge.gov.br/english/estatistica/indicadores/agropecuaria/lspa.

Among the Major Regions, the volume of output presents the following distribution: Central West, 69.8 million metric tons; South Region, 56.7 million metric tons; Southeast, 19.1 million metric tons; Northeast Region, 13.2 million metric tons; and North Region, 4.5 million metric tons. Compared with figures in the previous harvest, there were increments in the North (2.2%), Southeast (11.3%) and Central West (24.4%), and decline in the South (16.4%) an Northeast (9.4%). Among the Federation Units, Mato Grosso is the leader as the main national producer of grains, with 24.7%, being followed by Paraná, with 19.3% and Rio Grande do Sul, with 12.1%. Together, these states represent 56.1% of the total volume of grain production in the country.

July estimate versus 2011 output

Among the 26 products selected, 13 recorded positive change in terms of production estimate over the previous year:  herbaceous cotton (seed) (4.9%), 1st harvest peanuts in shell (25.6%), oat grain (13.5%), 3^rd harvest potatoes (1.3%), arabica coffee beans (16.2%), canephora coffee beans (8.5%), onions (2.0%), barley grain (15.6%),  2nd harvest grain beans (6.5%), 2nd harvest grain beans (0.0%), oranges (0.3%), 2^nd harvest grain corn (71.8%) and triticale grain (3.6%). Fourteen products recorded negative changes: 2^nd harvest peanuts in shell (29.8%), paddy rice (14.9%), 1st harvest potatoes (7.8%), 2nd harvest potatoes (20.1%), cacao beans (3.7%),  sugarcane (7.6%), 1st harvest grain beans (36.2%), castor beans (61.4%), cassava (1.9%), 1^st harvest grain corn (2.0%), soybeans in grain (12.2%), sorghum in grain (0.6%), and wheat in grain (7.9%).

Highlights in the July estimate over June Ten products were highlights in terms of monthly estimates of output, versus results in June:  herbaceous cotton (+ 0.9%), oat grain (+ 1.1%), arabica coffee beans (-0.3%), canephora coffee beans (-1.1%), barley in grain (+1.2%), 2^nd harvest beans in grain (-1.4%), 3^rd harvest beans in grain (-0.7%), 1^st harvest grain corn (-0.9%), 2^nd harvest grain corn (+7.7%) and sorghum in grain (+5.5%). ]

HERBACEOUS SEED COTTON – Record output is 4.9% above that of last year.  Mato Grosso, which is expected to produce about 52.2% of the total in the country was favored by rain, what caused increase in the output of these crops. In the Northeast Region, there was excessive drought this year, what caused decrease in production in the states of AL, PE, PB, RN and CE. Maranhão and Piauí, which planted cotton in the cerrado area, increased their respective planting areas by 11.2% and 25.1% and recorded outputs 12.7% and 31.3% bigger than in the previous harvest.  Another important national producer, Bahia, had average yield 3.3% below that of last harvest.  Even so, it expects to finish this harvest with increase in production, 1.6%, since it has increased the planting area by 5.1% since the last harvest.

OATS (grain) – The current production estimate is 396,740 metric tons, in a planted area of 161,293 hectares, with expected average yield of 2,460 kg/ha, respectively 13.5%, 7.4% and 5.5% bigger than in the previous harvest.  The states of Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná informed the national harvest of this product, with a contribution of, respectively, 59.9% and 40.1% of this output.  The state of Rio Grande do Sul points to a production of 237,500 metric tons, 1.8% bigger when compared to information relative to the previous year.  The expected output in Paraná is 159,240 metric tons, 36.7% bigger when compared to the harvest of 2011, but keeping the estimates of the previous month.

PADDY RICE – The Brazilian rice cultivation has faced reduction by 13.3% in harvested area, 14.9% in output and 1.9% in average yield, versus results of year 2011. The South Region, which accounts for 78.6% of the national output of paddy rice, presents decrease of 11.0% in the output estimate and has, as the main producer, Rio Grande do Sul, which reduced planted area by 11.4% due to the low prices charged in the decision-making process for planting and due tot the scarcity of water in reservoirs.  The dry period was also referred to as a reason for the reduction of production estimates in the Northeast Region, with decrease of 35.6% when compared to that obtained in 2011.

COFFEE (beans) – Total – The national coffee output reached a record figure, considering the two main types planted (arabica and canephora). The total amounted to 3.0 million metric tons, being equivalent to 50.8 million 60 kg-sacks. There was positive change of 14.2% over the previous harvest, and this increase in production is mainly influenced by the evaluation of Arabica coffee. This type represented 75.2% of the volume produced in Brazil, with increase of 15.1% in productivity, what is a typical change for a year or rising production.

COFFEE (beans) – Arabica - This decrease is believed to have been mainly caused by Pernambuco and Minas Gerais. In the former, the cultivation of coffee Arabica was severely damaged by the dry period which affects part of the Northeast; this item had its output reduced by 66.7%.  In Minas Gerais, the main national producer, the decrease of 0.2% in production occurred to the damages faced by the area called Zona da Mata (inner land in the state) in the beginning of the year.  The occurrence of rain in July, in some parts of the state, has caused the evolution of harvesting, as well as the quality of part of the coffee already harvested.

COFFEE (beans) – Canephora – In the monthly comparison of estimates, in July, the state of Espírito Santo, the main national producer, did not change the estimates presented last June, and holds the highest results in the country for this type of coffee (an average of 1,955 kg or 32.6 bag/hectare).  The changes effected in relation to the estimate of the previous month occurred mainly due to the state of Rondônia which conducted, this month, reevaluations of the total area used for crops (-3.8%) and of the harvested area (-8.0%).  As a result, the national output estimated in July decreased by 1.1%, amounting to 751,760 metric tons (12.6 million bags).

BARLEY (grain) – The national harvest is estimated at 351,187 t, in a planted area of 105,310 ha, 15.6% and 19.6% bigger, respectively, when compared to data about the previous harvest.  In relation to the previous year, there were positive changes of 5.3% in the planted area and 1.2% in the expected output.  Good climate conditions in producing states so far have contributed to the current conditions of crops.  The state of Paraná, the main national producer, which accounted for 63.2% of the output, and points to harvest of 221,979 metric tons, in a planted area of 57,850 ha.  There were no changes in relation to the previous month.  The other producing states, Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina the area and expected output recorded increases in estimates over those of the previous month.

BEANS (grain) – The national output of beans in grain, estimated at 2,865,186 metric tons, points to reduction of 0.7% over June data.  ha resulted from the negative change observed mainly in the states of GO (5.4%), CE (4.5%) and PE (21.6%).  The decrease was not more significant due to the positive contribution in the production estimates of MG (1.8%) and MA (0.1%).  This production volume is distributed as follows: 43.4% for the 1^st harvest (1,244,770 metric tons), 41.4% for the 2^nd harvest (1,184,831 metric tons) and 15.2% for the 3^rd harvest of beans (425,585 metric tons). Beans (1^st harvest) recorded an output of 518 metric tons less than in the sixth estimate.  The South Region is the biggest producer of 1^st harvest beans, with an output of 504,465 metric tons. The Northeast Region, which did not conclude the harvest in all the states, points to an output of 167,157 metric tons, which is 2.0% lower than the June estimate. For 2^nd harvest beans, the planted area faced decrease of 0.7%, average yield fell by 2.1% and the expected production recorded decrease of 1.4% compared to June. Beans (3^rd harvest faces decrease of 0.7% in the production estimate in relation to June results. The state of Goiás was the main contributor to this new evaluation, since it faced decrease of 5.7%in planted area, of 5.0% in the average yield, and of 10.5% in relation to the previous survey. CORN (grain) - In the June evaluation, the national output of grain corn is expected to be 71,450,141 metric tons, 3.5% above the June evaluation. In this context, 1^st harvest changed negatively by 0.9% and the 2^nd harvest, by 7.7% in relation to June, remaining above the first harvest.  There has been record production, considering the two harvests of this product, and surpassing by 27.0% the amount produced in 2011. In this comparison, planted area is 10.7% bigger.  These figures reflect the good prices charged for this product, what causes producers to choose this crop and increase investments in technology.

The 1^st harvest of grain corn participates with 46.8% in the national production volume of this cereal, and there were virtually no changes within the period of evaluation, being the final estimate 33,472,002 metric tons.

the 2^nd harvest of corn is still in the field, being currently collected.  The output estimate for this harvest is 37,978,139 metric tons, with increase of 7.7% and of 7.2% in average yield. There was also increase of estimates of the areas planted and harvested by 0.4% in comparison with data in June.  The Central West region, the main producer of 2^nd harvest corn, with 65.4% of the national output, recorded positive change of 12.1% in production, 11.5% in the average yield and of 0.5% in the area planted and area to be harvested.   The main state accounting for these increases was Mato Grosso, with production increases of 18.9%, in yield, 17.9% in areas, 0.8%.  Other contributions to the improvement of the July/June evaluation were the increased estimates in Goiás (6.8%) and Minas Gerais (5.2%).  Good climate conditions were favorable in these states, generating good production  prospects.

SOYBEANS (grain) – Reevaluation in the month of July confirmed the effect of drought in the production of this grain.  Although soybeans recorded increase of area, the inadequacy of rain affected average yield, causing it to decrease by 15.3%, what eventually resulted in a 12.2% reduction of the national output of this grain. The South Region was the most affected one considering decreases of 29.5% in the production estimates of Paraná, of 48.4% in Rio Grande do Sul and of 27.6% in Santa Catarina, compared to the output of 2011.

SORGUM (grain) –The production estimate of 1,896,945 metric tons is 5.5% bigger than data relative to last month.  In Minas Gerais, the variable has fallen by 11.8%, being a consequence of the reevaluation for a smaller area planted with this crop, which faces decrease of 8.2% , and of average yield to 3,282 kg/ha, 3.8% below information of June.  In Goíás, the main national producer, output is expected to increase by 3.5% compared to June, due a bigger planted area (2.4%) and to the expected average yield (1.1%).  Mato Grosso is the Federation Unit which which mostly affected the production increase of this crop in the current evaluation, since the estimate is 37.8% bigger than information of June.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     In this state, there was reevaluation for a bigger planted area (7.2%). The bigger occurrence of rain during the planting period and development of crops has and bigger investments in technology such as seeds and fertilizers promote an estimated average yield of the crop 28.6% above that of 2011 in the state.  Sorghum in grain can be used as an alternative to corn used in animal food.

Coming surveys of agricultural production will bring information about permanent crops and will keep monitoring the second and third harvests of some temporary crops, besides annual winter crops which, due to the agricultural calendar, have results based on projections only.

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) is a monthly survey to forecast and monitor the harvest of the main agricultural products, whose information is obtained by means of the Municipal Commissions (COMEA) and/or Regional Commissions (COREA). The latter are consolidated in state level by the Agriculture Statistics Coordinating Groups (GCEA) and, later, evaluated at national level, by the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics (CEPAGRO). This Commission is formed by representatives from IBGE and from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA).

Due to users' needs of harvest data, the surveys relative to Cereals, Legumes and Oilseeds (cotton seed, peanut, rice, beans, castor beans, corn, soybean, oat, rye, barley, sunflower, sorghum, wheat and triticale) have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency of the Ministry of Agriculture (CONAB), a subdivision of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). That initiative is the result of a process (started in October, 2007) of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops.