The national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds (seed cotton, peanuts, rice, beans, castor beans, corn, soybeans, oats, rye, barley, sunflower seeds, sorghum, wheat ad triticale) points to an output of 160.3 million metric tons, 0.1% higher than that of 2011 (160.1 million metric tons) and 0.6% above the April estimate.  These data are presented in the fifth estimate of the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) in 2011.  

The area to be harvested in 2012, of 49.9 million hectares, recorded increase of 2.5% versus the area harvested in 2011, and 0.7% smaller versus that of the previous month.

The three main crops (rice, corn and soybeans), which, together, account for 91.0% of the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds account for 84.6% of the area to be harvested. In relation to the previous year, rice presents decrease of 11.9% in area; corn, increase of 12.4% and soybeans, of 3.3%. In relation to production, rice records decrease of 13.5%, corn, increase of 21.7% and soybeans, decrease of 12.4%.

The complete publication is available at www.ibge.gov.br/english/estatistica/indicadores/agropecuaria/lspa

Among the Major Regions, the volume of production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds presents the following distribution:  Central West Region, 66.1 million metric tons; South, 57.0 million metric tons; Southeast, 18.6 million metric tons; Northeast, 14.0 million metric tons and North, 4.6 million metric tons. Compared to the previous harvest, there are increments in the North Region (4.6%), Southeast (8.2%) and Central West (17.8%), and decreases in the South Region 16.0%) and Northeast Region, 3.5%.  Mato Grosso is the leader as the main national producer of grains, with participation of 23.6%, followed by Paraná, with 19.5% and Rio Grande do Sul, with 12.3%. These states, together, account for 55.4% of the national total.

May estimate over 2011 output

Among the 26 products selected, 13 recorded positive change in production estimate compared with the previous year: herbaceous seed cotton (4.6%), oat grains (10.7%), 3rd harvest potatoes (3.9%), coffee beans – arabica (16.3%), coffee beans – canephora (6.1%), sugarcane (4.2%), onions (1.5%), barley (11.2%), 2nd harvest beans (26.1%), oranges (0.1%), cassava (1.2%), 2nd harvest grain corn (55.7%) and triticale grains (5.6%). Other 13 products recorded negative change: 1st harvest peanuts in shell (4.6%), 2nd harvest peanuts in shell (6,0%), paddy rice (13.5%), 1st harvest potatoes (5.9%), 2^nd harvest potatoes (3.2%),  1st harvest potatoes (3.2%), cacao beans (2.2%), 1st harvest beans (31.9%),3rd harvest beans (5.4%), castor beans in segment (57.9%), 1st harvest corn (0.2%), soybeans (12.4%), sorghum grains (7.2%) and wheat grains (10.9%).

Coming estimates of agricultural production will bring information about permanent crops and continue monitoring summer harvests, the development of 2nd and 3rd products, besides annual winter crops, which, due to the agricultural calendar, have part of their estimated based on projections.

Highlights in the May estimate over April

The highlights were the monthly changes in production estimates of seven products compared to the result of April:  herbaceous seed cotton (3.0%), 3rd harvest potatoes (5.1%), coffee beans – arabica (-0.6%), total beans (-2.1%), 2^nd harvest grain corn (4.5%), soybeans (-1.1%) and wheat grains (6.0%).  

HERBACEOUS COTTON (seed) – The national output, of 5,293,015 metric tons, represents increase of 30% compared to the figure announced in the previous year. Mato Grosso, which is expected to harvest more than 51.0% of the cotton production in the country, records production increase of 5.9%. A representative part of this change results from a favorable period of rain in the Southeastern part of the state, with rise of 1.9% of the average yield estimate.  The increase of area identified in the reevaluation of this month was 3.9%, representing 26.960 hectares more in the whole state.

In Goiás, the revision of planted area indicates reduction by 1.7%; nevertheless, production was not damaged, due to the rise of 1.9% in average yield, motivated by the good climate conditions observed and during the formation of crops.

As for the Northeast Region, it is important to consider the several producing areas and their specific features. Bahia, which represents about 30% of the national output, in spite of the increase of planting area with this crop (5.1% compared to 2011), expects reduction of average yield. The areas of the cerrado of Maranhão in a process of expansion are expected to produce, together, about 2.7% of the national total. Besides increasing their areas (by 11.2% and 25.1%, respectively) they also expect a bigger average yield in relation to 2011. In Piauí, particularly, the estimated increase of production is  4.3%.

POTATOES – The production estimate of potatoes is 3,785,257 metric tons, 2.8% below the amount harvested in 2011 (3,894,750 metric tons). The output is divided into three harvests, the first one being the most important of them, with production estimate of 1,619,172 t, or 42.8% of the total. The second and third harvest generated, respectively, 1,255,959 t and 910,126 t, corresponding to 33.2% and 24.0% of the national production.

The prices in effect in 2011 were lower than those in the previous year, what was reflected in the decrease of 4.6 of total area planted with this crop in 2012 in the 1^st and 2^nd harvests, with reduction of 5.4% and 5.0%, respectively. However, due to the rise of yield estimated for the 2^nd (1.9%) and 3^rd harvests (6.2%), the decrease of production estimate was not similar to that of planted area.

With reference to the previous figure (3,713,977 t), the output estimate for potatoes is 1.9 bigger, as a consequence of the increase of 44,400 t in the production estimate of 3^rd harvest compared with the previous figure, corresponding to an increment of 5.1% in production. This 3^rd harvest is now more influenced by the increase of 18.3% of production in Minas Gerais over the last figure obtained.  In this state, the crop os potatoes is considered a nomad one, that is, a crop planted by specialized producers who frequently change its place.  Last year, the planting of this 3^rd harvest had not yet been confirmed, and, this month, confirmation came with information about increase of area, especially in the municipality of Perdizes and in the Uberaba area.

Minas Gerais is the biggest national producer of potatoes, with 31.6% of the total output, followed by Paraná, with 19.6%, São Paulo with 17.8% and Rio Grande do Sul, with 10.0%. These states account, together, for 79% of the national production.

COFFEE (beans) – The national output of coffee, considering the two main types harvested (arabica and canephora) was evaluated, in the May estimate, at 3.0 million metric tons, being equivalent to 50.3 million 60 kg bags. In the comparison with April figures, the change of production is -0.3%, affected by the evaluation of arabica coffee, with a contribution of 75.7% of the Brazilan output of this item. 

In May, the natioanl harvest of coffee (arabica) for 2012 is estimated at 2,285,322 t (38.1 million 60 kg bags) and presents decrease of 0.6% in relation to the April estimate. The total area covered with this crop is 1,764,738 ha, with small decrease over the previous month (0.1%). The area to be harvested, of 1,586,805 ha, also presents decrease (0.2%).  Average yield decreased by 0.3%.

The dry period, which occurred in the beginning of the year, mainly in the area called Zona da Mata, in Minas Gerais, did not affect, in general terms, the growth of fruits or the good prospects for this harvest. These remain, in spite of the small negative adjustments in the expected production, of 0.2%, and average yield, of 0.3%, due to the Indian summer.  Paraná, where coffee crops are no longer as important as in the past, in economy terms, also faced problems in the dry period, with decreases of 11.5% in the expected production and of 5.7% in average yield.

BEANS (grain) – The national output of beans, estimated at 3,144,009 t, points to decrease of 2.1% versus the April result  as a consequence of the negative change observed in the states of GO (4.1%), CE (0.6%), RS (6.6%), PE (47.2%), MA (10.2%) and PI (13.4%) Bigger decrease was prevented because of the positive contribution from PR (1.4%), MG (3.7%), MT (21.1%) and RO (3.2%) to production estimates.  Production volume is distributed as follows: 42.3% in the 1^st harvest (1,329,148 t), 44.6% in the 2^nd harvest (1.403.058 t) and 13.1% in the 3^rd harvest of beans (411.803 t).

The 1^st harvest of beans, which once had most of the harvested area, records an output 6.7% smaller than the fourth estimate.  This harvest faced reduction of area in almost all the producing states.  The South Region is the main producer of 1^st harvest beans, with an output of 505,951 t, 0.9% smaller that that of the previous harvest, confirming the trend to decrease in production recorded in previous estimates due to the dry period.  The Northeast, with some states yet to finish the harvesting period,  expects an output of 260,256 t, 23% below the April estimate.  Planted area was reduced due to the delay and irregularity of rainfall.

Considering 2^nd harvest beans, the expected output recorded increase of 1.0% compared to the April estimate. There was increase of area in the South (4.6%), Southeast (3.2%) and Central West (8.7%) because of the price recovery of this grain.  The Northeast Region faced decrease of planted area by 21.3% as a consequence of the dry weather during the planting period. In Paraná, the main national producer, with 24.7% of production of this grain, field surveys point to a planted area of 219,958 in this harvest, which is 5.2% bigger than that of the previous month, and to an expected output of 346,778 t of the product, also 2.9% bigger.

Third harvest beans faced increase of 4.0% in production estimate compared with the April figure; this result was affected by the increase of planted area by 5.5%. This new positive evaluation was influenced by information from Minas Gerais (1.5%) and Mato Grosso (64.2%). In the latter there was significant increase of 7,803 hectares more than the amount estimated in April. With the good price of “carioca” and black beans, there is a trend to increase of the area for the planting of irrigated beans, which starts in June.  Several producers report that, after the harvesting of this product, with a cycle of about 90 days, the crop will be sown again.  That is expected to occur in the municipality of Sorriso, mainly.

CORN (grain) – The national output of grain corn is 68.5 million metric tons, 1.9% above the April estimate.  Increase is directly related to the new data obtained for 2^nd harvest corn, which, for the first time this year surpassed the figure estimated for the 1^st harvest, and represented 50.2% of the production volume. Mato Grosso affected significantly the positive change observed in May, with increase of 967.9 thousand metric tons in the estimated production of corn.

The national output of 1^st harvest corn is estimated at 34,096,897 t, presenting slight decrease (0.6%), a figure which results, mainly, from the area directed to harvesting, which faced decrease of 3.7% in May.  The Northeast Region, where drought has caused serious problems, accounted for this decrease.   In this area, the expected production is 3,714,272 t, corresponding to 10.9% of the national output, and decrease of 9.4% versus the figure in the previous month. That corresponds to decrease of 536,660 t, as a consequence of the reduction of planted area (-5.8%) and harvested area (-14.6%).

The states which recorded, this month, decrease of production were Piauí (-3.2%), Ceará (-49.9%), Rio Grande do Norte (92.4%), Paraíba (-14.3%) and Pernambuco (-75.7%).  In the Southeast, Minas Gerais recorded production increase of 1.8%, yield of 1.4%, planted area of 0.6% and harvested area of 0.4%, closing end at  7,167,290 t.  In the South, which accounted for 38.8% of the national production, Paraná increased its estimates of production by 1.2%, yield, harvested and planted areas by 0.6%, whereas Rio Grande do Sul reduced production by 3.5%, yield by 2.9% and harvested area by 0.7%.  The Central West Region, representing 14.8% (5,051, 955 t) of the 1^st harvest corn in Brazil, presented increases of 1.5% (production), 1.1% (planted area) and 0.4% (harvested area), relative to the output obtained in the states of Mato Grosso (4.3%) and Goiás (1.4%).

The Central West, the main producer of 2^nd harvest corn, with 62.1% of the national output, presented average positive change of 6.4% in the production estimate, and of 5.5% in average yield.

The national prospect for this harvest, 34,413,912 t, with increase of 4.5%, also featured positive evaluations concerning yield (3.6%) and harvested and planted area (0.8%) over April.  Because of the crisis which affects the Northeast Region, there have been decreases in all the variables:  5.4% in production, 3.0% in yield and 2.5% in the area.  

SOYBEANS (grain) – The fifth harvest estimate indicates production decrease (1.1%) versus the figure in the previous month.  Compared with the previous harvest, there is decrease of 12.4%.  Being mainly affected by the drought, the decrease of production was most significant in the South of the country, where loss was estimated at 10,561,867 t. In Rio Grande do Sul, average yied changed from 2,845 to 1,445 kg/ha, last year, resulting in the reduction of output in the state by 48.4%.  The new reevaluations also record decrease of average yield: 8.0%. In terms of output, there is an 8.25 decrease.  The second major producer, Paraná, is expected to account for only 16.6% of the grain production in the country (10,891,349 t), this year, versus 20.6% in 2011. It is worth mentioning that the price already reached R$ 56.00/60 kg bag in the state, representing a type of compensation for the producer whose output volume was reduced due to the dry period.

WHEAT (grain) – The second estimate for the national production of wheat in 2012, according to the field surveys conducted in May, is 5,075,845 t. It records positive change of 6.0% compared with the April figure, because of the decrease of 2.7% in the area already planted or to be planted and expect of increase of 3.2% in average yield.   These increases refer to the states of Paraná and, mainly, Rio Grande do Sul, where the expected production is 12.6% bigger that that of the previous month, because of the readjustment of 4.7% in the area estimated for the crop and of 7.6% in average yield.  It is worth mentioning, however, that current figures remain below the results of 2011, what means only slight recovery in relation to April estimates.

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) is a monthly survey to forecast and monitor the harvest of the main agricultural products, whose information is obtained by means of the Municipal Commissions (COMEA) and/or Regional Commissions (COREA). The latter are consolidated in state level by the Agriculture Statistics Coordinating Groups (GCEA) and, later, evaluated at national level, by the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics (CEPAGRO). This Commission is formed by representatives from IBGE and from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA).

Due to users' needs of harvest data, the surveys relative to Cereals, Legumes and Oilseeds (cotton seed, peanut, rice, beans, castor beans, corn, soybean, oat, rye, barley, sunflower, sorghum, wheat and triticale) have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency of the Ministry of Agriculture (CONAB), a subdivision of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). That initiative is the result of a process (started in October, 2007) of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops.