In March, the industrial production changed by - 0.5%, in relation to February, in the seasonally adjusted series...

In March, the industrial production changed by - 0.5%, in relation to February, in the seasonally adjusted series, after contracting 1.6% in January and expanding 1.3% in February.  Against March 2011, the industry overall posted a drop of 2.1% in March 2012, the seventh negative result in a row in this kind of comparison. Thus, at the end of the first quarter of 2012, the indexes of the industrial sector were negative both in relation to the same period of the previous year (-3.0%) and to the immediately previous quarter (-0.5%), in the seasonally adjusted series.  The annual rate, which is the accumulated indicator of the last twelve months, after retracting 1.1% in March, went on a downward trend started in October 2010 (11.8%) and registered the most significant negative rate since February 2010 (-2.6%).

The complete publication of the survey can be accessed at www.ibge.gov.br/home/estatistica/indicadores/industria/pimpfbr/default.shtm

www.ibge.gov.br/english/estatistica/indicadores/industria/pimpfbr/default.shtm.

Industrial output recedes in 18 of the 27 sectors surveyed

The 0.5% decrease in the industry overall, between February and March, reflects a general downward trend, reaching the majority (18) of the twenty seven sectors surveyed. The negative highlights were publishing, printing and reproduction of recorded media (-7.1%), petroleum refinement and alcohol production (-3.6%), other chemical products (-2.3%) and medical and optical products, appliances and equipment and others (-10.1%). It is worth mentioning that these sectors posted positive results in last February: 1.0%, 2.4%, 2.8% and 24.0%, respectively.  It is also worth highlighting the negative contributions coming from electronic material and communication equipment and apparatus (-6.9%), metal products (-3.4%), mining and quarrying industries (-1.8%) and pharmaceutical products (-2.1%). Among the nine activities that advanced in the production this month, the main influence on the industry overall came from motor vehicles (11.5%), which accumulated an expansion of 26.2% in two consecutive months of positive results, eliminating, thus, part of the drop of 31.2% seen in last January.

Among the categories of use, still considering the comparison with the immediately previous month, the sectors of intermediate goods (-0.9%) and of semi- and non-durable consumer goods (-0.8%) recorded negative rates in March 2012: the former eliminating part of the rise of 2.1% observed in the previous month, and the latter interrupting the four-month sequence of positive rates that accumulated an increase of 4.2%. On the other hand, the segments of capital goods (3.8%) and durable consumer goods (3.4%) registered a rise in this month’s output. The former - after receding 16.0% last January, especially due to the lowest production of trucks – advanced for two months in a row, accumulating an expansion of 9.7% in this period, whereas the latter, growing 3.4% in March 2012, recovered part of the loss of 7.5% accumulated between February 12/ December 11.

Quarterly Moving Average registers -0.3% in March

In the seasonally adjusted series, the evolution of the quarterly moving average index for the industry overall had a negative change of 0.3% in the quarter ended in March against the previous month, after recording a negative rate in January (-0.4%) and remaining almost stable in February (0.1%). Among the categories of use, in relation to the movement of this index on margin, the negative highlights were capital goods (-2.9%) and durable consumer goods (-1.5%), which kept the downward trend started in December and January, respectively.  The segment of intermediate goods (-0.4%) also receded in March 2012 and kept the downward trend begun in June 2011. The production of semi- and non-durable consumer goods, with a positive change of 0.2% this month, presented the fourth consecutive positive result, but the least intense in this sequence.

Industry posts a drop of 2.1% in March 2012 against March 2011

As compared to the same month of the previous year, the industrial output fell by 2.1% in March 2012, a less intense fall than the ones seen in January (-2.8%) and February (-4.0%). It is worth mentioning that March 2012 (22 days) had one more workday than the same month of the previous year (21). This month index revealed a dissemination of negative results, since three of the four categories of use and most (16) of the 27 activities surveyed pointed to a reduction in the output. Among the other groups, motor vehicles, which contracted 7.5%, exerted the greatest negative influence in the industry average, mainly influenced by the downfall of approximately 80% of the products surveyed in the sector, with the following highlights: tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers, vehicles for the transportation of goods, automobiles, axes and chassis with engines for buses and trucks.  Other negative relevant contributions on the national overall came from electronic material and communication equipment and apparatus (-18.4%), basic metals (-6.5%), fabricated metal products (-9.8%), electrical machinery and apparatus (-10.8%), publishing, printing and reproduction of recorded media (-7.2%), textiles (-8.0%) and machinery and equipment (-1.9%). On the other hand, still considering the comparison with March 2011, among the eleven sectors that registered positive rates, the main influences are attributable to other transportation equipment (11.3%), beverages (6.8%) and other chemical products (2.9%).

Capital goods and durable consumer goods had drops above the industry overall

The indexes by category of use, still comparing with the same month of the previous year, confirm the negative rate predominance in the industrial sector in March 2012. Capital goods (-5.7%) and durable consumer goods (-4.7%) recorded a falling pace higher than the industry overall (-2.1%). In the first group, with the sharpest drop among the categories of use this month, negative results were seen in each of its subsectors, with a highlight for the losses occurred in capital goods for miscellaneous use (-8.6%) and for transportation equipments (-4.0%), pushed at a great extent by the retractions in the production of items of the segment of computer equipment, in the first group, and of tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers, vehicles for the transportation of goods, trucks and chassis with engine for buses and trucks, in the second. The other negative rates were registered by capital goods for construction (-17.7%), for industrial purposes (-4.3%) for electrical energy (-4.4%) and for agricultural purposes (-0.2%).  The negative result registered by durable consumer goods was particularly leveraged by the lowest production of cell phones (-23.1%), automobiles (-3.6%), “brown line” house appliances (-8.3%) and motorcycles (-2.4%). In this category of use, the main positive results are due to a larger production of house appliances, both  the “white line” (13.7%) and the “brown line” products (13.7%), and of articles of furniture (18.3%).

Contrasted with March 2011, the production of intermediate goods (-2,0%) presents a downfall similar to the industry overall (-2.1%), mainly influenced by the negative behavior of products related to the activities of basic metals (-6.5%), textiles (-9.8%), petroleum refinement and alcohol production (-2.8%), fabricated metal products (-11.5%), motor vehicles (-6,8%), rubber and plastic (-3,7%) and pulp, paper and paper products (-2,4%), whereas the positive contributions were recorded by other chemical products (4.1%), mining and quarrying industries (1.7%), non-metallic minerals (3.1%) and food products (0.9%).    In this category of use, it is also worth mentioning the results coming from the segments of input for civil construction (4.9%), which registered the eleventh consecutive positive rate, and from packaging (-4.7%), which posted the second drop in a row in that type of comparison.   The production of semi- and non-durable consumer goods (0.6%) was the only one to show growth in March 2012, pushed by the advances in the group of fuels (9.2%) - due to the rise in the production of motor gasoline - and of food products and beverages for domestic use (1.7%), caused, mainly, by the bigger production of soft-drinks, beers, draft beer and concentrated fruit juice. However, the segments of semi-durable (-5.2%) and of other non-durable items (-1.1%) posted a decrease in this category of use, mostly influenced by: footwear made of synthetic material for women, dresses and leather tennis shoes, in the first group, and medicine, magazines and books, in the second.

Industry recorded a fall of 3.0% in Q1

In the accumulated index for the first quarter of 2012, over the same period in the previous year, the retraction was of 3.0%, mainly due to the negative results in three of the four categories of use and in the majority (15) of the twenty-seven sectors surveyed.  Among the activities, the production of motor vehicles, presenting a drop of 20.4%, remained with the major negative influence over the general index, reinforced mainly by the reduction in the production of the majority of the products surveyed in the sector, with a highlight for the lowest production of automobiles, trucks, tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers, vehicles for the transportation of goods and chassis with engine for buses and trucks.  It is also worth mentioning the negative contribution from electrical machinery and apparatus (-12.1%),  electronic material and communication equipment and apparatus (-13.1%), office machinery and computer equipment (-12.7%), basic metals (-3.7%), rubber and plastic (-5.1%), textiles (-7.5%) and apparel and accessories (-14.1%).

On the other hand, among the twelve segments that posted an increase in the output, the main influences on the industry overall were exerted by the sectors of other chemical products (5.7%), petroleum refinement and alcohol production (4.3%), medical and optical products, appliances and equipment ( 14.7%), other transportation equipment (5.5%) and food products (1.4%), especially reinforced by a larger production of herbicides for agricultural purposes, in the first sector, motor gasoline, in the second, programmable logic controllers, in the third, airplanes, in the fourth, and concentrated orange juice in the last.

Among the categories of use, the nature of the results for the first quarter of 2012 confirmed the least dynamic outputs for durable consumer goods (-11.6%) and capital goods (-11.4%), particularly influenced by the lowest production of automobiles, in the first group, and of capital goods for transportations (trucks) in the second. The sectors of intermediate goods (-1.3%) recorded a less sharp drop than the industry average (-3.0%), whereas the segment of semi- and non-durable consumer goods, with an expansion of 0.9%, registered the only positive result in the accumulated index of the first three months of the year.

The quarter indexes showed an acceleration in the falling pace of the industrial activity between the last quarter of 2011 (-2.1%) and the first quarter of 2012 (-3.0%), both comparisons against the same period a year ago. In this same kind of comparison, fourteen of the twenty-seven activities and three of the four categories of use pointed to a deceleration between the two periods. Among the categories of use, only semi- and non-durable goods, which changed from -1.5% in the last quarter of last year to 0.9% in the first three months of 2012, did not post any drops in the pace of the industrial output.  In the remaining categories of use, the segment of capital goods (from -1.4% to -11.4%) presented the sharpest slowdown between the two periods, followed by durable consumer goods (from -9.5% to -11,6%), which stood ahead in terms of the intensity of the decrease in the two quarters, and intermediate goods (from -0.8% for -1.3%).