In January 2010, the industrial production recorded a decrease of 2.1%, in relation to December 2011, in the seasonally adjusted series, after pointing to slightly positive rates in November (0.1%) and December (0.5%).The decrease reached 14 of the 27 investigated sectors. In the comparison with January 2011, textiles pointed to a reduction of 3.4%, the fifth negative result in a row in that comparison.The annual rate (index accumulated in the last twelve months), down since October 2011 (11.8%), had signs of decrease in January 2012, the first fall since March 2010 (-0.3%). Still concerning the seasonally adjusted series, the industry had a decrease of 0.5% in January 2012 in relation to December 2011, if the evolution of the quarterly moving average index is considered. The sector kept the downward trend started in May 2011. The complete publication is available at

www.ibge.gov.br/english/estatistica/indicadores/industria/pimpfbr/default.shtm.

Industrial production recedes in 14 of the 27 subsectors surveyed

The decrease of 2.1% of the industrial activity between December 2011 and January 2012 was mainly attributable to the downfall of the production in 14 of the 27 subsectors surveyed, with a highlight to the negative impact coming from motor vehicles (-30,7%), especially reinforced by the granting of collective vacations that affected several companies in the sector.

It is also worth mentioning that the activity had expanded for three consecutive months, accumulating a rise of 11.4% during this period, after a decrease of 13.0% in September 2011, also influenced by the strikes due to collective vacation in several companies.

Other relevant negative contributions to the industry overall result came from: mining and quarrying industry (-8.4%); medical, optical and other equipment (-26.3%), which lost part of the 28.0% growth recorded in last December; beverages (-7.7%); office machines and computer equipment (-12.2%); fabricated metal products (-6.1%); and electrical machinery and apparatus (-6.1%). On the other hand, among the activities that boosted the production, the most important performances to the overall result were in edition and printing (9.9%) - eliminating the drop of 5.9% in the previous month, machinery and equipment (4.5%), petroleum refinement and alcohol production (4.8%), electronic material, communication equipment and devices (14.3%) and textiles (6.6%). 

Among the categories of use, still considering the comparison with the immediately previous month, capital goods (-16.0%) posted a sharp drop in January 2012, mainly influenced by a slowdown in the production of trucks, since several companies of this sector granted collective vacation during this month. It is worth highlighting that this fall was the most intense since December 2008 (-23.5%) and interrupted two consecutive months of expansion in which the increase reached 5.7%. The segments of durable consumer goods (-1.9%) and of intermediate goods (-2.9%) also presented negative rates in January 2012, the growth of 5.5% in last December being eliminated by the former, and the positive rates in two consecutive months - November (0,2%) and December (0,4%) - being reverted by the latter. The segment of semi- and non-durable consumer goods was the only one to record an increase this month, up 0.7%. It also presented growth in November (2.3%) and in December (0.4%).

Quarterly moving average falls 0.5% in January

In the evolution of the quarterly moving average, the industry posted a drop of 0.5% in January 2012, comparing to the pattern of December 2011, it kept the negative behavior observed since May 2011. Among the categories of use, still in relation to the movement of this index at the margin, capital goods were a highlight (-3.6%), registering again a negative rate after having advanced 1.0% in the previous month. The segment of intermediate goods (-0.8%) also receded between December and January, and went on a downward trend begun in May 2011. The production of semi- and non-durable consumer goods (1.1%) and of durable consumer goods (0.9%) presented the second consecutive positive result in this indicator, accumulating in this period gains of 1.5% and of 3.2%, respectively.

Industrial production falls 3.4% in the comparison with January 2011 

As compared to the same month of the previous year, the industrial production fell 3.4% in January 2012, the fifth negative rate in a row in this kind of comparison and the most intense since September 2009 (-7.6%). This month index revealed a dissemination of negative results, since three of the four categories of use and most (14) of the 27 activities surveyed pointed to a reduction in the production. It is worth mentioning that January 2012 (22 days) had one more workday than the same month of the previous year (21). The subsector of motor vehicles fell back 26.7% and had the greatest negative impact in the industry average, mainly influenced by the downfall of approximately 90% of the products surveyed in the sector, with a highlight to a lower production of trucks, automobiles, tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers and chassis with engines for buses and trucks. It is worth emphasizing the impact of the strikes in January 2012, due to the granting of collective vacation in several companies in this sector. Other negative relevant contributions to the national overall output came from office machinery and computer equipment (-24.8%), mining and quarrying industry (-5.7%), electrical machinery and apparatus (-10.0%), fabricated metal products (-7.2%), apparel and accessories (-19.4%) and pharmaceutical products (-5.9%). In these activities, the lowest production came respectively from parts and accessories for data processing purposes, printers and computers; iron ore; electrical engines and transformers; parts and accessories for steam or vapor generating boilers; women's pants/trousers, dresses and cotton T-shirts; and medicine. On the other hand, among the twelve segments that posted an increase in the production, the main influences on the industry overall result were from the sectors of food (4.7%), machinery and equipment (4.6%) and of petroleum refinement and alcohol production (4.2%), especially reinforced by a larger production of concentrated orange juice and chocolate candies in the first sector; harvesting machines, refrigerators and freezers for domestic purpose, in the second; and motor gasoline, in the last one.

Among the categories of use, still contrasting with the same month of the previous year, the sector of capital goods (-13.0%) posted the highest negative rate, with the segment of capital goods for transportation (-26.3%) exerting the mainly negative influence over the output. This result is mostly due to the lower production of trucks, tractor trucks, chassis with engines for buses and trucks and vehicles for the transport of goods. It is important to highlight as well the decrease in capital goods for electrical energy (-34.1%) and in capital goods for miscellaneous use (-7.7%). The other subsectors expanded their production: capital goods for agricultural purposes (32.1%), for industrial purposes (5.2%) and for construction (3.7%).

Still contrasting with January 2011, the segments of durable consumer goods (-7.6%) and of intermediate goods (-3.6%) also had negative rates above the industry’s average (-3.4%). In the first sector, the main negative trend came from a lower production of automobiles (-18.8%), also influenced, for the most part, by the granting of collective vacation in several companies of the sector in January 2012. The other drops can be attributed to cell phones (-8.1%) and motorcycles (-0.7%). In this category of use, the main positive results are due to a larger production of house appliances (9.0%), the "white line" (7.6%) as well as the "brown line" products (34.6%), and of articles of furniture (15.8%). 

The sector of intermediate goods kept a downward trend caused by a lower production of goods related to motor vehicles (-19.7%), mining and quarrying industry (5.7%), textiles (-10.6%), basic metals (-2.8%), rubber and plastic (-4.5%), fabricated metal products (-7.0%) and pulp, paper and paper products (-1.0%); whereas the positive contribution was registered in petroleum refinement and alcohol production (1.9%), other chemical products (2.3%), food (3.8%) and non-metallic minerals (1.6%). In this category of use, it is worth mentioning that the positive results remained in the groups of inputs for civil construction (2.2%) and packing (0.4%).

Only the sector of semi- and non-durable consumer goods records increase in January

Still in the monthly index, only the sector of semi- and non-durable consumer goods (1.9%) recorded increase in the production in January 2012 among the categories of use, with the group of fuels (9.5%), food and beverages for domestic use (2,1%) and other non-durable goods (0,7%) registering the positive influences, especially driven by the higher production of motor gasoline in the first group; concentrated orange juice, in the second; and medicine and books, in the last. The group of semi-durable goods (-3.2%) had a negative impact in this category of use, mainly influenced by the downfall in the production of trousers, footwear of synthetic material (both for women) and jersey dresses.

Summing up, the industrial sector in the beginning of 2012 returns to a lower productive rhythm (mostly seen in the fall of 2.1% in the comparison between January 2012/December 2011) after registering two slightly positive rates in November and December. It is important to mention that this month’s result was especially influenced by an intense drop in the segment of motor vehicles (clearly reinforced by the collective vacation in several companies), mainly reaching the production of trucks. Considering the result of January 2012, the industry was 5.6% below the record level reached in March 2011. Still in the seasonally adjusted series, the decelerating pace was also evident in the analysis of the index of the quarterly moving average, in which there has been a downward trend to the overall industry since April, period during which a 3.9% loss was accumulated. Among the categories of use, there is also a reduction in the production rhythm in the same period, being particularly more significant in relation to durable consumer goods (-9.2%) and to capital goods (-7.9%), since intermediate goods (-2.7%) and semi and non-durable consumer goods (-1.4%) showed less intense drops.

Confronting with the same period of the previous year, the industrial sector remained pointing to negative results, with the industry overall result accelerating the downward trend in January 2012 (-3.4%) as compared to the index in the fourth quarter of 2011 (-2.1%). Among the categories of use, the most intense loss was seen in capital goods, which came from -1.4% in the last quarter of 2011 to -13.0% in January 2012, followed by intermediate goods (from -0.8% to -3.6%). It is important to mention that the segment of durable consumer goods had a reduction in the downward trend when it came from -9.5% in the fourth quarter of 2011 to -7.6% in January 2012, but it kept a decrease above the overall/global average. Conversely, the sector of semi and non-durable consumer goods (from -1.6% to 1.9%) registered more dynamism between these two periods.