In December, 13 of the 23 activities changed positively in relation to November

Thirteen of the 23 activities recorded positive changes in the prices in December 2011, the same number as in the previous month. The four biggest price changes in December were observed in products within the following industrial activities: publishing and printing (-2.89%), electrical machinery and apparatus (-2.45%), tobacco (1.92%) and other transportation equipment (1.33%).

When comparing December 2011 with November 2011 (-0.17%), the most influential items were other chemical products (-0.13 p.p.), electrical machinery and apparatus (-0.07 p.p.), food products (-0.04 p.p.) and petroleum refinement and alcohol production (-0.04 p.p.).

In December 2011, the indicator accumulated in the year – which is equal to the accumulated in 12 months when comparing December 2011 with December 2010 – reached 2.61% against 2.78% in November 2011. Among the activities that recorded the highest percentage changes as to the accumulated indicator in December 2011, the highlights were: leather articles and footwear (17.92%), computer equipment, electronic and optical products (-11.82%), rubber and plastic products (9.03%) and other chemical products (8.38%).

The sectors that mostly influenced (table 3) this indicator were: other chemical products (0.86 p.p.), food products (0.59 p.p.), petroleum refinement and alcohol production (0.51 p.p.) and computer equipment, electronic and optical products (-0.43 p.p.).

The Producer Price Index (IPP) changed -0.17% in December when compared with November, below the rate observed in the comparison between November and October (0.02%). When compared with the same month a year ago (accumulated in 12 months), the prices changed 2.61% in December and 3.22% in November. The accumulated index in the year - accumulated in 12 months - changed 2.61% in December, less than in November (2.78%).

The IPP measures the evolution of the prices at the “factory gate”, discounted taxes and freight, of 23 sectors of the manufacturing industry.  The complete publication can be accessed on page www.ibge.gov.br/home/estatistica/indicadores/precos/ipp 

In 2011, the prices of food products rose, on average, 3.16% against 21.24% in 2010. The different behavior between the two years is explained in the last quarter. As opposed to 2011, the prices increased in the last quarter of 2010 at a higher pace than in the previous quarter, 11.86% against 8.77%; in 2011, 0.21% against 7.84%.

The four products that mostly influenced the rate of 21.24% in 2010 were: cakes, bagasse, bran and other residues from soybean oil extraction, concentrated orange juice, crystallized sugar and fresh or refrigerated beef. These products accounted for 10.09 p.p. of the annual change of the sector. As to 2011, the highlights were: concentrated orange juice, cakes, bagasse, bran and other residues from soybean oil extraction, fresh or refrigerated beef and ground roasted coffee, which accounted for 1.11 p.p. of the rate of 3.16%. Despite the coincidence of three products, it is worth mentioning that all the major influences were positive in 2010, whereas the influence of cakes, bagasse, bran and other residues from soybean oil extraction was negative in 2011.

The IPP data confirm the international scenario: the prices of food products continued to increase in 2011, but at a slower pace than observed in 2010.

In 2011, the prices of the sector of textile products rose, on average, 1.31% against 19.81% in 2010, when the prices increased in the four quarters, accelerating since the second one and closing the fourth quarter at 8.48%. The prices still rose in the first quarter of 2011 (9.57%), but dropped in the three following quarters, explaining the small change in the accumulated in 12 months.

The four products that mostly influenced the rate of 19.81% in 2010 were: dyed or printed cotton fabrics, except of yarns of different colors; dyed or printed cotton fabrics, including yarns of different colors; single cotton yarn; and cabled cotton yarn. These products accounted for 15.67 p.p. of the annual change of the sector and all of them influenced positively. As to 2011, the products were: single cotton yarn; dyed or printed cotton fabrics, except of yarns of different colors; non-fabric or false fabrics; and cotton bathing suit, integrated to weaving, which accounted for 1.41 p.p. of the rate of 1.31%, negatively influenced by single cotton yarn and positively influenced by the other three products.

The analysis of this sector should take into account the price trend of cotton between 2010 and 2011. From mid-July 2010 to March 2011, the price of the arroba of the cotton lint skyrocketed in the domestic market, having more than doubled between May 2010 and March 2011. This behavior was heavily influenced by the international market, which recorded the highest price in 140 years. After that, the prices began to fall, especially in May and July, reinforced by the beginning of the harvest in June. By the end of 2011, the price of the arroba reached the same level of early 2010, thus reducing the pressure on the prices of the textile products since the second half of 2011.

In 2011, the prices of leather articles and footwear increased, on average, 17.92% against 3.61% in 2010. The third quarter of 2010 was the only one in which this activity changed negatively, while the same period of 2011 registered the largest change since the beginning of the series (7.95% in 2011 against -1.52% in 2010). As to the fourth quarter, the change in 2011 was of 2.80% against 2.27% in 2010.

The four products that mostly influenced the rate of 3.61% in 2010 were: cattle leather and hide tanned in chromium or dry; sneakers made of textile or synthetic material, mounted; footwear made of synthetic material for women, except sneakers or for professional use; and cattle and horse leather and hide for parchment or prepared after tanning or drying. These products accounted for 4.03 p.p. of the annual change of the sector. As to 2011, the products were: cattle leather and hide tanned in chromium or dry; leather footwear for women, except sneakers; cattle and horse leather and hide for parchment or prepared after tanning or drying; and footwear made of synthetic material for women, except sneakers or for professional use, which accounted for 17.42 p.p. of the rate of 17.92%. Despite the coincidence of three products, it is worth mentioning that all the major influences were positive in 2011, whereas sneakers made of textile or synthetic material, mounted; and footwear made of synthetic material for women, except sneakers or for professional use negatively influenced in 2010.

The sector of petroleum refinement and alcohol production changed 4.71% in 2011, similar to the level showed in 2010 (4.97%). Three of the four main products were the highlights in 2010 and 2011: naphtha, aviation kerosene and ethyl alcohol (anhydrous or hydrated). Diesel and other fuels was the highlight in 2010, while basic lubricants was the highlight in 2011. The four highlight products in 2011 represented a weight of 84.66% in December 2011.

In 2010, the prices changed approximately 0.5% in the beginning of the year, accelerated in the second quarter to 1.72%, decelerated in the third one and closed the fourth quarter with the highest change of the year. In 2011, while the prices accelerated 3.61% in the first quarter, they showed the lowest change in the second (-0.02%) and returned to rise in the second and third quarters.

Other chemical products changed 8.38% in 2011 against 15.76% in 2010. Despite there is no total coincidence among the four highlights of the two years, the analysis shows some similarities: both non-saturated ethylene (ethane) and NPK-based manure and fertilizers appear in the two years. However, while herbicides for use in agriculture was the highlight in 2010, ammonium sulphate or urea was the highlight in 2011, both products belonging to the same chain. The same happened with PEBD in 2010 and with non-saturated propane (propylene). The four highlights in 2011 represented a weight of 50.13% in December 2011.

The quarterly trend shows similarities between the two years: while the first quarter shows positive changes above 8%, the second quarter decelerates, followed by another positive trend. However, while the increase began in the third quarter of 2010 and stabilized in the fourth one, the third quarter of 2011 showed  deceleration. Therefore, the deceleration in the third quarter of 2011 explains the final difference in the accumulated in the two years: more than 7 p.p.

The prices of rubber and plastic products registered a positive change of 9.03% in 2011 against a positive change of 6.23% in 2010. The 2011 against 2010 analysis showed that the prices hit the peak of this period in the second quarter of 2010 (4.18%), while their smallest change was hit in the fourth quarter of 2010, 0.07%. The year of 2011 started with a quarterly rise in the prices of 4.11%, followed by another positive change of 3.30% in the second quarter.

The products new tires for trucks and buses and new tires for automobiles and SUVs are the highlights in terms of change and influence, in 2010 and 2011. Other highlights in 2010 were plastic packaging for food products or beverages and plastic articles for domestic use, which are among the four products with the highest change and that mostly influenced the prices of this activity that year. In 2011, these products were outpaced in terms of change/influence by new tires for motorcycles and plastic bottles and packaging, including PET.

The prices of the sector of basic metals fell, on average, 2.27% in 2011 against a growth of 3.95% in 2010. The behavior along the quarters in the two years is very similar: increase in the second quarter in relation to the first one, fall in the third one and stabilization in the last quarter of each year. The first quarter of each year explains the reason for the positive index in 2010 and the negative in 2011, once the change of prices in the first quarter of 2010 was 2.53% and, in 2011, there was a decrease of 1.52% in the same period. The prices of this sector were in a process of recovery until mid-2010 (approximately 8.31%), especially in the second quarter of that year (5.64% against 1.78% in the same quarter of 2011). In both years, the prices fell in the third quarter, more deeply in 2010 (-2.30% against -1.31% in 2011). The last quarter also recorded a decrease in the prices, 1.78% in 2010 and 1.20% in 2011.

The four products that mostly influenced the rate of 3.95% in 2010 were: steel carbon ingots, blocks, rods or plates; square or rectangular aluminum plates and foils; non-alloy aluminum in raw form; and hot-rolled steel carbon coils, non-coated. These products accounted for 4.60 positive percentage points of the annual change of the sector, whereas the others accounted for -0.65 p.p. As to 2011, the products were: steel carbon ingots, blocks, rods or plates; cold-rolled steel carbon coils, non-coated; hot-rolled steel carbon coils, non-coated; and steel carbon thick plates, non-coated, which negatively influenced in 1.96 p.p. the rate of 2.27%. It is important to notice that three of the major products positively influenced in 2010 and only one in 2011, steel carbon ingots, blocks, rods or plates.

The sector of basic metals is divided into steel products (metalworking) and copper and aluminum products. The prices of the first group were highly influenced by the oversupply in the international market, particularly in 2011, while the second group was closely linked with the prices of the international commodity exchange.

The prices of motor vehicles recorded a positive change of 2.57% in 2011 against a negative change of 0.15% in 2010. The 2011 against 2010 analysis shows stability in the prices in the first quarter of 2011, after decreasing in the previous quarter (-0.75%). However, the prices of the sector regularly rose from the second quarter of 2011 until the last quarter, differently from 2010, when the prices fell in the last quarter after increasing between the second and third quarters.

Trailers and semitrailers was the highlight in 2010 in terms of price change and still is in 2011, but the product with the highest change was chassis with motor for buses and trucks. In terms of annual influence, the same products appear in 2010 and 2011: passenger automobiles, gasoline, alcohol or bi-fueled, of any power, positively influencing in 2011 and negatively in 2010; diesel trucks with capacity above 5t; motor parts for motor vehicles; and chassis with motor for buses or trucks.