The result of September 2011 contributed to the deceleration of industrial activity, by recording decrease of 2.0% over August, after being almost stable in the last two months. This occurrence was widespread and reached most of (16) the 27 industrial subsectors surveyed and three of the four categories of use, but was more significant in the sectors involved in the production of durable consumer goods (cars) and capital goods (trucks). The evolution of the quarterly moving average index adds to the scenario of lower dynamism of the industrial sector this month, once it intensifies the decrease between the months of August and September. Also considering the series with seasonal adjustment, and index of quarter versus immediately previous quarter, industrial production also had signs of output decrease, having changed from expansion of 1.3% in the first three months of the year to a result of -0.6% in the following quarter and of -0.8% in the third quarter. This lower dynamism in production was also observed in the indicators accumulated in the year and in the last twelve months that kept positive results, despite the visible deceleration compared to results in previous months.

Among the subsectors, 16 recorded decrease 

The decrease of 2.0% faced by industrial activity from August to September was characterized by negative rates, and reached most of (16) the 27 subsectors surveyed and three categories of use. Among the subsectors, the main negative impact over the average rate came from automotive vehicles (-11.0%), mainly affected by the granting of collective vacation in several companies of this sector. Other relevant negative influences over the total of industry came from the subsectors: tobacco products (-30.), in return to part of the 51.5% increase recorded in the previous month, electronic material and communication equipment (-13.6%), machinery and equipment (-4.1%), editing and printing (-5.0%), electric machinery, appliances and material (-6.0%) and other transportation equipment (-4.5%). On the other hand, among the activities that recorded production increase, the most important performances to the overall result were those of food products (3.3%), other chemical products (4.2%), office machines and computer equipment (9.6%) and petroleum refining and alcohol production (2.1%).

Among the categories of use, also considering a comparison with the immediately previous month, durable consumer goods (-9.0%) and capital goods (-5.5%) pointed to the most significant decreases in September 2011, with the former one having accumulated loss of 12.8% in the latter having eliminated the gain of 3.0% accumulated between June and August. The subsector semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (-1.3%) also recorded decrease; it had a negative index in August (-0.9%). The category of intermediate consumer goods kept the same level as in the previous month (0.0%), after decreasing by 2.2% between August and May, and it was the only one not presenting a negative result this month.

Quarterly moving average changes by -0.6%

Considering the evolution of the quarterly moving average, industry faced decrease of 0.6% between August and September, having accelerated decrease over the result of the previous month (-0. 3%). By category of use, except for semi-durable and non-durable goods, which recorded increase of 0.3% in September, the other subsectors faced negative rates, being the main highlight durable goods, which faced its biggest fall between August and September (-3.3%). The sectors which produce capital goods and intermediate goods recorded decreases of 0.9% and 0.2%, respectively.

Compared to figures in September 2010, industrial production decreased by 1.6%

In the comparison September 2011 / September 2010, the industrial production recorded decrease of 1.6%, being opposite to the increase of 2.0% observed in August. The September index was negatively affected by the decrease in two of the four categories of use, 14 of the 27 subsectors surveyed, 43 of the 76 subsectors and 53% of the 755 products surveyed.

Among the subsectors, the main negative influences on the overall rate came, in order of importance, from motor vehicles (-6.4%), pharmaceutical industry (-14.8%), textiles (-16.7%), editing and printing (-8.4%), electric machinery, appliances and material (-9.6%), apparel and accessories (-11.9%) and footwear and leather articles (-10.8%). Among these subsectors, the most important items were, respectively, cars; medicines; textiles, bath linen and cotton thread; books and newspapers; transformers, electric engines and wire, cables and electric conductors; cotton shirts for male use and female cotton underwear; and footwear made of synthetic fiber and leather sneakers. 

On the other hand, the most relevant positive impacts over the overall rate came from food products (3.3%), petroleum refining and alcohol production (3.8%), beverages (4.7%) and office machines and computer equipment (8.9%), because of the bigger production of crystallized sugar in the firstly-mentioned sector, gasoline in the second one, and beer, draft beer and soft drinks in the third, and monitors, computers and automated teller machine, in the last one.

Among the categories of use, also in the comparison with the same month in the previous year, the subsector of durable consumer goods (-9.5%) recorded the biggest decrease in September 2011, being mostly affected by the reduced production of cars (-22.3%), caused by the granting of collective vacations in several companies of the sector, and mobile (-19.8%). In this category of use, the main positive figures resulted from the increased production of household appliances (16.8%), especially those of the “brown type” (35.2%), once those of the “white type” (1.8%) recorded slighter decreases, motorcycles (0.6%) and furniture (2.7%). The production of semi-durable and non-durable goods (-2.3%) also recorded decrease above the overall average (-1.6%) and was negatively affected by the decreases observed in non-durable goods (-7.9%) and semi-durable goods (-10.5%), which occurred mainly because of the smaller output of book and medicines, in the former group, of cotton bath linen, in the latter. The subsectors fuels (11.7%) and elaborated food products and beverages for domestic consumption (1.2%) recorded the main positive results in this category of use, mainly due to the bigger production of gasoline and beer and draft beer, respectively.

Also compared to the same month in the previous year, the categories intermediate goods (0.3%) and capital goods (0.2%) recorded slight increase in production in September 2011. In the first sector, the most significant positive influences came from the bigger production of products associated to the activities of food products (9.6%), metallurgy (1.5%), non-metallic minerals (3.1%) and motor vehicles (3.2%), whereas negative impacts were observed in textiles (-15.9%), rubber and plastic (-3.8%), mining and quarrying industry (-1.4%) and petroleum refining and alcohol production (-0.8%). In this category of use, it is also worth mentioning the results that came from the groups inputs for civil construction (3.9%), which recorded the fifth consecutive positive rate, and packages (-0.4%). The increase of 0.2% recorded by capital goods over September 2010 was greatly affected by the growth of capital goods for transportation equipment (7.0%) and, to a lower extent, capital goods for industrial use (5.5%). In these subsectors, the items representing the main highlights were trucks, chassis with engines for trucks, airplanes and tractor trucks for tow-cars, in the former group, and machinery and equipment for the pulp industry, machining centers for metals, industrial ovens and drills, in the latter. On the other hand, capital goods for electricity (-16.3%), agricultural use (-18.9%), mixed use (-2.1%) and construction (-7.2%) accounted for the main negative impacts on the total result of this category of use.

Production remains stable in the 3rd semester

In the analysis by quarter, it is observed there was null increase (0.0%) in the third quarter of the year, and the sector kept the upward trend that had been started in the third quarter of the year (18.2%), being both comparisons relative to the same period in the previous year. It is worth mentioning that this result interrupted a series of seven consecutive quarters of positive rates in this type of comparison. Among the categories of use, the subsectors of durable consumer goods, which changed from -1.0% in the second quarter of the year to -2.2% in the third one, of intermediate goods (from 0.5% to -0.4%) and of semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (which remained with -0.1% in the two quarters) pointed to negative rates in the third quarter of the year, whereas capital goods (from 2.6% to 4.1%) was the only category to keep the increase of production between the two quarters.

Considering index accumulated in 2011, 17 subsectors recorded increase

The index accumulated in the first nine months of the year, over that of the same period in 2010, pointed to increase of 1.1% for the total of industry, with positive rates in most (17) of the 27 subsectors surveyed. The activity automotive vehicles (4.3%) recorded the most significant positive impact on the overall average, being mostly affected by the expansion of 67% of the products investigated in the sector, and followed by other transportation equipment (10.5%), editing and printing (4.7%), non-metallic minerals (4.2%), electronic material and communication equipment (5.5%), machinery and equipment (1.7%), hospital, medical optical and other equipment (11.7%), mining and quarrying industry (2.0%), metal products (3.2%) and tobacco (15.0%). 

In terms of products, the highlights in these subsectors were: trucks, vehicles for the transportation of goods and tractor-trucks; airplanes and motorcycles; books and magazines; ceramic plates or tiles and “Portland” cement; mobile telephones; microwave ovens, machinery and equipment for the pulp industry, shovel-loaders and graders; clocks; iron ore; iron and steel structures; and processed tobacco.  On the other hand, the subsectors textiles (-14.6%), other chemical products (-2.8%) and footwear and leather articles (-8.9%) accounted for the most relevant negative contributions to the overall indexes, being mainly affected by the items bath linen, cotton cloth and thread; herbicides for use in agriculture; and footwear made of synthetic fiber and leather sneakers and footwear, respectively.

Among the categories of use, also considering the index accumulated in the year, the results remained positive; capital goods (5.0%) was a highlight due to its dynamism in 2011, having recorded increase above the total of industry (1.1%), mainly due to the bigger production of capital goods for transportation equipment. The sectors which produce intermediate goods (0.6%), durable consumer goods (0.5%) and semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (0.3%) recorded the most moderate increases among the categories of use.

In September 2011, the seasonally adjusted industrial production recorded decrease of 2.0% in the September/August comparison, after being practically stable in the last two months (changes of -0.1% in the previous month and of 0.3% in July). In the comparison with the same month in the previous year, industry recorded decrease of 1.6% in September this  year, the lowest result since last April (-1.7%), and increase of 1.1% of the index accumulated in the first nine months of 2011. The industrial sector closed the 3^rd quarter of 2011 with the same production level as in the period July-September last year (0.0%), but pointed to slight decrease of output, having changed from 1.3% in the first three months of the year to -0.6% in the following quarter and -0.8% in the third quarter (seasonally adjusted series). The annualized rate, the indicator accumulated in the last twelve months has been on an upward trend since October last year (11.8%); it faced decrease (0.7 percentage points) from August (2.3%) to September (1.6%).

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