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In July, IBGE estimates a harvest of grains 6.2% higher than the record harvest of 2010

August 09, 2011 09h00 AM | Last Updated: September 11, 2018 04h53 PM

The national harvest of cereal, legumes and oilseeds (cotton seed, peanut, rice, beans, castor beans, corn, soybean, oat, rye, barley, sunflower, sorghum, wheat and triticale) registered a production of 158.8 million tons, 6.2% higher than the harvest in 2010 (149.6 million tons) and 1.7% lower than the estimate for June.

That result is presented in the seventh estimate of the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) in 2011.

The area to be harvested in 2011, of 48.8 million hectares, presents an increase of 4.9% compared with the harvested area in 2010 and a decrease of 0.3% in relation to June.

The three main cultures (rice, corn and soybean), which altogether account for 90.5% of the production of cereals, legumes and oilseed, account for 82.3% of the area to be harvested and record, in relation to the previous year, positive changes of 1.6%, 4.2% and 3.3%, respectively.

Concerning production, rice and soybean present, respectively, increases of 18.9% and 9.2%, while corn, a decrease of 1.1%. 

The complete publication can be accessed at www.ibge.gov.br/english/estatistica/indicadores/agropecuaria/lspa

Among the Major Regions, this volume of production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds presents the following distribution: South Region, 65.9 million tons; Central West, 55.5 million tons; Southeast, 17.2 million tons; Northeast, 15.8 million tons; and North, 4.3 million tons. Compared with the previous harvest, rises in all regions can be observed: North, 7.9%; Northeast, 34.5%, Southeast, 0.9%, South, 2.6% and Central West, 5.7%.

Mato Grosso leads the national production of grains, with a contribution of 19,6%, surpassing Paraná in this evaluation for 2011. Paraná’s harvest of grains suffered with some recent climate problems: scarcity of rain in May, frost in June and excess of rain in July of 2011. Consequently, there were quantitative and qualitative damages to the crops of beans (2nd and 3rd harvest), oat, wheat and, mainly, corn (2nd harvest).

 

July estimate in relation to the production of 2010

 Among the 25 products selected, 14 presented positive changes in the production estimate in relation to the previous year:

herbaceous raw cotton (72.5%), peanut in the shell 1st harvest (25.2%), paddy rice (18.9%), potato 1st harvest (13.5%), cacao nut (4.4%), barley in grain (9.0%), beans in grain 1st harvest (30.2%), beans in grain 2nd harvest (5.2%), castor beans (46.3%), cassava (7.9%), corn in grain 1st harvest (3.4%), soybean in grain (9.2%), sorghum in grain (24.3%) and triticale in grain (27.3%). Recording a negative change: peanut in the shell 2nd harvest (39.8%), oats in grain (-9.4%), 2nd (3.3%) and 3rd (0.1%) harvests of potatoes, coffee in grain (6.6%), sugarcane (5.1%), onions (7.1%), beans in grain 3rd harvest (6.1%), oranges (1.8%), 2nd harvest of corn in grain (7.5%) and wheat in grain (14.8%).

 

 

July estimate highlights in relation to June

 

Changes in the production estimates of nine products stood out, compared with June:

herbaceous cotton seed (-2.3%), paddy rice (0.7%), oat in grain (-4.7%), coffee in grain (2.0%), total beans in grain (-2.9%), 2nd harvest of corn in grain (-11.0%), soybean in grain (-0.1%), wheat in grain (-3.4%) and triticale in grain (2.9%).

  

Herbaceous raw cotton

The estimated production is 5.1 million tons, 2.3% lower than in June. That decrease mainly reflects the change in the average yield, which was revised down from 3,760 kg/ha to 3,665 kg/ha, a negative change of 2.5%. Mato Grosso, the main producer, accounting for 50.7% of the national production, was the main responsible for this decrease. In this state, although the estimated area of 718,636 ha surpassed in 0.6% the one previously reported, the estimated production of 2,562,510 tons decreased by 3.4% as the average yield was revised down (-4.0%), attributable to the lack of rain that affected the second harvest of the product.

 

Paddy Rice – The estimated production of 13.4 million tons and the planted area of 2.8 million hectares are larger in 0.1% and 0.7%, respectively, compared with June.

Those gains are due to the revisions of harvest data from Rio Grande do Sul, the biggest national producer. In this state, compared with last month, there was an increase of 0.8% in the harvested area, now estimated at 1,170,109 hectares, resulting in a production increase of 1.2%, evaluated in 8.9 million tons.

 

Coffee (in grain)

– The national production of coffee is estimated at 2,684,353 tons (44.7 million bags of 60 kg). That represented a rise of 2.0% in relation to the previous month survey, although the fact that the two-year coffee production cycle is in its low still applies. Minas Gerais, the biggest national producer, registered a rise in the harvest area, estimated at more than 3,200 ha. In Espírito Santo, the second producer of the country, increases were recorded for the average yield (+4.4%) and for the production (+3.2%) in relation to the previous month. The state presents the predominance of the canephora species (conilon and clones). Since the end of 2010, weather conditions have been fairly favorable and the total production of the state (arabica and conilon) is estimated at 708,417 tons (11.8 million bags). That was attributable to the average yield of 1,452 kg/ha (24.2 bags/ha), the highest of the country (considering the production of both species).

 

Beans (in grain) Total -

The national production of beans, considering the three harvests, was evaluated at 3,695,292 tons, 2.9% lower than in the previous month. The 1st and 2nd harvests of beans registered decreases of 0.1% and 8.6%, respectively, whereas the 3rd harvest recorded an increase of 2.0%. The inexpressive decrease in the production of the 1st harvest of beans was due to the changes in the data of harvest, which is reaped in almost all the country. As to the second harvest, the reduction in production, in relation to the previous month, was driven mainly by the information revisions conducted in the main producing centers. In Paraná, the biggest national producer, upon the reaping of the harvest this month, there was a reduction of 5.2% in production, compared with June, attributable to the climate adversities during the cycle. In Bahia, second biggest producer, there was a contraction in production of 34.8% with a reduction in the yield of 31.8% due to the scarcity of rain. As for the third harvest, the rise in production was largely a result of the revisions of the data from Minas Gerais, where the figures of São Romão (North), Presidente Olegário (Northwest) and Uberlândia (Triângulo) were revised up, leading to a rise in production (1.9%). The same happened in Mato Grosso (10.4%) and in Goiás (2.5%).

 

Corn (in grain) Total –

The national production in 2011, for both harvests, totaled 55.5 million tons, a negative change of 4.1% against June. That decrease was attributable to the revisions of the data from the second harvest. The first harvest, already reaped in the main producing centers, registered an increase of 0.7% in production, estimated at 34.2 million tons, mainly driven by the revisions in Minas Gerais (0.7%), Rio Grande do Sul (1.8%) and Santa Catarina (2.3%). In relation to the 2nd harvest, the estimated production of 21.2 million tons presented an expressive reduction of 11.0% compared with the estimate of June. Paraná, the second national producer in this planting period, was the main responsible for that decrease, registering a substantial drop in production (30.2%), now estimated at 5.2 million tons, due to the scarcity of rain in May, the frosts from June 27 to 28 and the excessive rain at the reaping in July. Of the planted area, 1,720,526 ha, 124,913 ha were totally lost, reducing the productive area to 1,595,613 ha, 7.9% lower than the area of last month. The same happened to the estimated average yield, which fell 24.3%. The harvest started in June developed slowly in July, totaling only 13% of the estimated area up to the end of the period . It is worth mentioning that in Mato Grosso do Sul the 2nd harvest of corn suffered from the scarcity of rain and from the frosts. As a result, a reduction of 11.1% in production was observed.

 

Soybean (in grain)

– The record estimated production of 74.8 million tons decreased by 0.1% only when compared with June, a consequence of revisions in the estimates. Central-West, responsible for 45.1% of the national production, recorded a fall of 0.2% in production due to the revisions of the rates of Mato Grosso (-0.3%) and Goiás (-0.1%), where the crops have been already reaped.

 

Winter Cereals (in grain) –

Winter crops, mainly concentrated in the states of the south of the country, recorded contractions for oat (4.7%) and wheat (3.4%) and an increase for triticale (2.9%). Concerning wheat, the most important crop, the estimated production of 5.1 million tons is 3.4% lower than in the last month. Similarly to what happened to corn, the strong frosts observed on June 27 and 28 damaged the crops from Parana that were in more advanced stages, flowering and fruiting. That resulted in a loss of 34,845 ha, and for now the estimated area to be harvested is of 983,881 ha, accounting for a reduction of 4.2% and a reduction in the estimated productivity of 5.6%. The production from Paraná, evaluated now in 2.5 million tons, suffered a reduction of 9.6% due to climate adversities (drought and frosts). As a result, its contribution to the national production of wheat, decreased from 57.0% to 49.2%. However, the drop in the national production was offset by the estimated gain of 5.4% in Rio Grande do Sul, the second biggest producer.

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) is a monthly survey to forecast and monitor the harvest of the main agricultural products, whose information is obtained by means of the Municipal Commissions (COMEA) and/or Regional Commissions (COREA). The latter are consolidated in state level by the Agriculture Statistics Coordinating Groups (GCEA) and, later, evaluated at national level, by the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics (CEPAGRO). This Commission is formed by representatives from IBGE and from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA).

 

To address the needs of users of harvest data, the surveys relative to Cereals, Legumes and Oilseeds have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency (Conab) of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA) as a sequence to a process of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops, which started in October of 2007.