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In June, IBGE estimates the harvest of grains 8.0% higher than the record harvest of 2010

July 06, 2011 09h00 AM | Last Updated: September 11, 2018 03h54 PM

The national harvest of cereal, legumes and oilseeds registered a production of 161.5 million tons, 8.0% higher than the record harvest in 2010 (149.6 million tons).

That result is presented in the sixth estimate of the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) in 2011.
The area to be harvested in 2011, of 49.0 million hectares, shows an increase of 5.3%, against the harvested area in 2010. The three main crops (rice, corn and soybean), which together cover 90.5% of the volume of the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds, account for 82.4% of the area to be harvested. Their changes in relation to the previous year are of 1.5%, 5.3% and 3.4%, respectively. As to production, the increases were, respectively, 18.1%, 3.2% and 9.3%.
The complete publication can be accessed at www.ibge.gov.br/home/estatistica/indicadores/agropecuaria/lspa.

Among the Major Regions, this volume of production presents the following distribution:

South Region, 68.1 million tons; Central West, 55.8 million tons; Southeast, 17.1 million tons; Northeast, 16.2 million tons; and North, 4.3 million tons. Compared with the previous year, rises in all regions can be observed: North, 8.0%; Northeast, 37.1%, Southeast, 0.3%, Central West, 6.3% and South, 6.0% . Paraná, in this 2011 evaluation, keeps leading the national production of grains with a contribution of 20.5%, followed by Mato Grosso with 19.3% and Rio Grande do Sul with 17.7%.
 

June estimate in relation to the production of 2010

Among the 25 products selected, 17 presented positive changes in the production estimate in relation to the previous year:

herbaceous raw cotton (76.7%), peanut in the shell 1st harvest (25.5%), paddy rice (18.1%), potato 1st harvest (13.4%), potato 2nd harvest (2.2%), potato 3rd harvest (1.4%), cacao nut (4.2%), barley in grain (8.1%), beans in grain 1st harvest (30.3%), beans in grain 2nd harvest (15.1%), castor beans (47.0%), cassava (8.2%), corn in grain 1st harvest (2.6%), corn in grain 2nd harvest (3.9%), soybean in grain (9.3%), sorghum in grain (21.5%) and triticale in grain (23.7%). Recording a negative change: peanut in the shell 2nd harvest (11.2%), oats in grain (-4.9%), coffee in grain (8.4%), sugarcane (5.1%), onions (7.1%), beans in grain 3rd harvest (8.0%), oranges (1.8%) and wheat in grain (11.8%). The records in 2011 were the productions of herbaceous raw cotton, paddy rice, potato 1st harvest, potato 2nd harvest, cacao nut, beans in grain 1st harvest, corn in grain 2nd harvest and soybean in grain.

 

June estimate highlights in relation to May

 Herbaceous raw cotton –

The expected production is 5.2 million tons, 1.3% higher than in May. The increase reflects the change in the planted area, which recorded the same percentage change, considering the stability of the average yield from 3,760 kg/ha to 3,761 kd/ha. Mato Grosso, with an estimated production of 2.7 million tons, outweighing the record of 2007 (2.2 million tons), and Bahia, with 1.5 million tons, outweighing the record of 2008 (1.2 million tons), accounted for 80.7% of the national production but did not promote changes in estimates. The gains in production this month remarkably occurred in the Federation Units with the smallest percentage contribution. The highlights were Mato Grosso do Sul (4.4%) and Goiás (7.5%).

 Coffee (in grain) –

The downward trend of the average yield and production was stronger, driven by the lower-yielding period of the two-year coffee production cycle. In this survey the national production estimate presented a decrease of 0.7% in relation to May. The average yield was revised down to 0.7%. Minas Gerais, the greatest Brazilian coffee producer, registered a contraction of 0.2% in the expected production when compared with the previous information, which totals 1,332,028 tons (22.2 million bags of 60 kg), considering both species (arabica and canephora) and accounting for 50.6% of the total expected for the country. The area to be harvested is reevaluated in 1,024,033 hectares. The yield, typical of an "off-year", declined 0.2% in relation to May. The two-year cycle has diminished over the years due to the lack of frosts, which always "leveled" the crops, and due to the different techniques in handling the plots of coffee: higher density, rust-resistant varieties planting, pruning, among others. Espírito Santo, the second biggest coffee producer, saw no changes in relation to May. The state presents the predominance of the canephora species (conilon and clones). The two-year cycle for the conilon coffee is eliminated by the irrigation, critical for the North of the state due to the excessive hot temperature and low pluviometric indexes. As whether conditions were fairly favorable in 2011, the total production of the state (arabica and conilion) was estimated in 686,301 tons (11.4 million bags). That is a good result, attributable to the increase in the area and average yield of 23.2 bags/hectare, the highest of the country (considering the average yields of both species). São Paulo registered a drop of 3.1% in the average yield and 2.5% in the expected production.

 

 

BEANS (in grain) -

The national production, considering the three harvests, was evaluated at 3,807,527 tons, 0.2% lower than in the previous month. Comparatively, the production of 1st harvest beans registered a decrease of 1.5%, whereas beans of 2nd and 3rd harvests recorded increases of 1.3% and 1.1%, respectively. The drop in the production of the 1st harvest beans is mainly the result of the data reevaluation concerning the states of Piauí (-18.4%), Rio Grande do Norte (-10.5%) and Pernambuco (-33.3%). That reevaluation was conducted because of the damages caused by the excess of rain. As to the second harvest, the increase in production, in relation to the previous month, was driven mainly by the information revisions conducted in all regions. As for the third harvest, the rise in production was largely a result of the revisions of the data from Minas Gerais (3.7%), where new crops were identified in Northwest and High Paranaíba, and from Goiás (4.6%).

Corn (in grain) –

The national production, for both harvests, totaled 57.8 million tons, a negative change of 0.7% against May. The 1st harvest of corn will probably reach 34.0 million tons, a rise of 0.2% in comparison with the previous estimate. This gain is the result of a positive revision of the yield (0.6%), due to a contraction of 0.4% of the area to be harvested. The contribution to the national production, considering the three major producers, is so distributed: South (44.5%), Southeast (27.9%) and Northeast (13.5%). The South region recorded a rise of 0.5% in production due to the positive revision of 1.2% in the production of Paraná, where the product has been already harvested. As to the 2nd harvest corn, a production of 23.9 million tons was estimated, 2.0% below the previously published one. In that 2nd harvest, the highlights are Central-West with a national contribution of 57.1% and South with 31.2%. The decrease was largely driven by Goiás, of which the estimate of 2,938,693 tons was reduced in 15.7%. In this state, due to a long period with no rain, there was a revision of the yield from 6,100 kh/hectare to 5,127 kg/hectare (-16.0%). Paraná, the only representative concerning the harvest of the product in the South region, saw its production rise by 0.2%. It is worth mentioning that the present survey did not take into account the possible damages caused by the frosts of June 27 and 28 in this state. They will be considered in the next field surveys.

Soybean (in grain) –

The record estimated production of 74.9 million tons grew 0.8% when compared with May. The positive highlights were the North and Southeast regions, with changes of 7.4% and 6.1%, respectively. It is worth mentioning that Central-West, responsible for 45.2% of the national production, recorded a rise of 0.6% in production due to the revisions of the rates of Mato Grosso do Sul (1.8%) and Goiás (1.3%), where the crop has been already harvested.

WINTER CEREALS (in grain) –

Winter crops, mainly concentrated in the states of the south of the country, recorded contractions for oat (2.4%), wheat (1.0%) and triticale (2.0%). Concerning wheat, the most important crop, the estimated production of 5.3 million tons is 1.0% lower than in the last month. That contraction was attributable to Paraná, which accounts for 52.6% of the national contribution. Although its planted area increased by 0.3%, its production decreased by 1.5%, due to the negative revision of the average yield (-1.8%) resulting from the period of drought observed in May. It is worth highlighting that possible losses resulting from the June 27 and 28 frosts were not taken into account in this survey. The frosts probably affected crops that were susceptible to low temperatures (flowering and fruiting).

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) is a monthly survey to forecast and monitor the harvest of the main agricultural products, whose information is obtained by means of the Municipal Commissions (COMEA) and/or Regional Commissions (COREA). The latter are consolidated in state level by the Agriculture Statistics Coordinating Groups (GCEA) and, later, evaluated at national level, by the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics (CEPAGRO). This Commission is formed by representatives from IBGE and from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA).

Due to users’ needs of harvest data, the surveys relative to Cereals, Legumes and Oilseeds (cotton seed, peanut, rice, beans, castor beans, corn, soybean, oat, rye, barley, sunflower, sorghum, wheat and triticale) have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency of the Ministry of Agriculture (CONAB), a subdivision of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). That initiative is the result of a process (started in October, 2007) of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops.