The area to be harvested in 2011, 48.1 million hectares, records increase of 3.3% compared to that in 2010...

The national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds points to an output of about 155.6 million metric tons, 4.0% above the record figure reached in 2010 (149.7 million metric tons), according to the third estimate of the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production³ in 2011.

The area to be harvested in 2011, 48.1 million hectares, records increase of 3.3% compared to the area harvested in 2010.The three main crops which, together, represent 90.8% of the volume of production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds are rice, corn and soybeans. They account for 82.4% of the area to be harvested and recorded, versus results in 2010, changes of 1.7%, +2.2% and +2.1%, respectively. In terms of output, the three items recorded increases of 1.7%, +2.2% e +2.1%. The complete publication of the survey is available at  https://www.ibge.gov.br/home/estatistica/indicadores/agropecuaria/lspa/default.shtm

Among the Major Regions, this volume of production represents the following distribution of cereals, legumes and oilseeds: South Region, 64.9 million metric tons; Central West, 55.0 million metric tons; Southeast Region, 16.5 million metric tons; Northeast Region, 15.0 million metric tons and North Region, 4.3 million metric tons. Compared to the previous year, there were increments in the North (7.1%), Northeast (26.2%), central West (4.7%), South (1.0%) and decrease in the Southeast Region (3.6%). In this evaluation for 2011, Paraná remained as the leader of the national output of grains, with participation of 20.2%, followed by Mato Grosso, with 19.4% and Rio Grande do Sul, with 17.3%.

Estimate for March versus output in 2010

Among the twenty-five selected products, thirteen recorded positive changes compared to figures in the previous year: herbaceous cotton seed (63.5%), peanuts in shell - 1st harvest (7.8%), paddy rice (18.0%), potatoes - 1st harvest (13.2%), potatoes - 2nd harvest (10.9%), dry beans - 1st harvest (27.4%), dry beans - 2nd harvest (4.7%), castor beans (51.3%), cassava (8.6%), corn grain - 2nd harvest (2.4%), dry soybeans (4.5%), sorghum grains (14.4%) and triticale grains (21.3%). With negative change featured: peanuts in shell - 2nd harvest (11.4%), oats seed (25.2%), potatoes - 3rd harvest (4.7%), cacao beans (1.1%), coffee beans (9.7%), sugarcane (7.7%), onions (8.6%), barley grains (12.6%), dry beans - 3rd harvest (9.5%), onions (2.4%), corn grain - 1st harvest (1.1%) and wheat grain (19.3%).

The main summer crops, mainly soybeans and corn, remain in the harvesting period. Coming surveys will show the monitoring of crops and the development of the second and third harvests of some products, besides winter crops that,  due to the agricultural calendar, present estimates based on projections.    

Highlights in the March estimate versus February results

HERBACEOUS COTTON (seed) – The estimated output is 4.8 million metric tons, 3.9% above that of February. This new survey confirms the trend to expansion of planted area, now evaluated with increase of 3.5%, as a consequence of the new result of Bahia, the second main national producer. In this state, as in other producing centers, planting has been stimulated by the growing external and internal demand, low international stocks, and good prices charged. The area of crops in Bahia recorded increase of 13.4% compared to the figure of last year, whereas the expected production increased 14% in this monthly comparison.

PADDY RICE – The expected output of 14.4 million metric tons is 4.8% bigger that that in the February estimate, as a result of reevaluations of average yield figures, mainly of Rio Grande do Sul, the main producer, which accounted for 66.0% of the national output. In this state that has approximately 60.0% of the harvested area, there are high productivity levels. For this reason, there has been a positive reevaluation of 6.3%, resulting in a total 7,601 kg/ha. The low level of moisture has also favored harvesting. The area to be harvested has increased 1.2% and the expected output is 8.8 million metric tons, 7.5% more than previously informed for Rio Grande do Sul.

DRY BEANS – The national output of beans, considering the three harvests of this item, is evaluated as 3,681,256 metric tons, 4% less than in the February estimate.

DRY BEANS (1st harvest) – For beans - 1st harvest, the expected harvested area is 2.3 million hectares, with an output of 2.0 million metric tons. These figures are, respectively, 2.8 and 2.2% lower than those recorded in the previous month. These decreases result, partially, from the changes of data in the Northeast Region – mainly in Bahia (-9.5% in area and –15.8% in production) and Ceará (-6.2% in area and –10.0% in production), and also from the reevaluation of the final harvesting data. In Minas Gerais, post-harvest evaluations in the northern and central areas of the State, where there was excess of rain in some places and lack of it in others, generated loss in area (-3.5%) and in production (-0.7%). In Santa Catarina, where production fell by 6.3%, the excess of rain caused the dissemination of diseases, and led to decrease, compared to February, of 6.5% in average yield – with a change from 1,758 kg to 1,644 kg/ha in the end of the harvesting period.

DRY BEANS (2nd harvest) – The area to be harvested, of 1,308,967 hectares, and the expected production, of 1,266,946 metric tons, are 3.3% and 9.5% lower than in February, respectively, mainly regarding the main producing areas, the Northeast and South Regions. In the Northeast Region, retraction of 18.3% in production occurred mainly due to the correction of figures in Paraíba (-15.1% in area and –49.0% in production). In the South Region, in Paraná, the main national producer, the area to be harvested is 178,357 ha, indicating decrease of 3.9% and an expected output of 318,549 t – 4.5% less than in February. It is also worth mentioning that there were decreases in Santa Catarina, both in area (31.7%) and in production (34.7%). Besides unfavorable prices, the excess of rain in the planting period have caused reduction of planted area.

DRY BEANS (3rd harvest) – The 3rd harvest of the product is still based on projections. The estimated output, of 428.4 thousand metric tons, has not changed in relation to that of February, and corresponds to 11.6% of the total estimated production.

CORN (grain) – The national production of milk in grain in 2011, for both harvests, amounts to 56.3 million metric tons, with a positive change of 2.0% over the February figure.

CORN - 1st harvest (grain) – The expected output of corn – 1st harvest is 32.8 million metric tons, with increase of 1.5% compared to the previous estimate. The South Region accounts for this change, due to increase of 6.1% in output after the reevaluation of average yield (+7.9%), in spite of the reduction of area by 1.6%. In Paraná, with the start of harvest in the end of January, 55% of the 740,684 ha planted have already been harvested. Climatic conditions favored this item and productivity has overcome initial estimates; for this reason, its average yield has been reevaluated and is 7,714 kg/ha, what means 6.0% over output estimated in February. In Rio Grande do Sul, in spite of the reduction of area by 3.9%, outcome recorded increase of 7.8%, due to favorable climate, notably, in the North of the state, with a volume of rain above average.

CORN - 2nd harvest (grain) – With reference to corn - 2nd harvest, production is expected to reach 23.5 million metric tons, being 2.7% above the figure in February. This increase has occurred due to the new data obtained for Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul. In Paraná, crop, which is usually planted in the period between the months of January and April, recorded an area 3.5% bigger than last month, and 95% of it is already planted.  The estimated output, considering yield of 4,366 kg/ha, is 3.4% bigger than the in the previous estimate. Mato Grosso do Sul presented the first evaluation for this crop. Although the area recorded decrease of 1.2%, the expected output increased 10.1%, due to the expected average yield of 3,700 kg/ha, 11.4% bigger than the figure used for the projection.

DRY SOYBEANS – The expected production (71.6 million metric tons) is 3.8% bigger than the February figure. The increase has occurred due to the positive reevaluation of 3.5% in average yield resulting from favorable climatic conditions, in the main producing centers. The main highlights in case were being the southern states, which accounted, in absolute figures, for an increase of about 3.0 million metric tons. In Paraná, the second major national producer, harvesting is 82% complete, considering the estimated area. Favorable climatic conditions led to production increase of 5.3%, with average yield of 3,260 kg/ha. In Rio Grande do Sul, where 30% of the harvesting is complete, damages expected after La Niña did not occur, and the figures for average yield surpassed those of the last evaluation by 24.2%. The expected output of 10,657,590 is 25.1% above the previous estimate.

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¹ Due to the need of crop data users, surveys relative to cereals, legumes and oilseeds have been conducted in close partnership with the National Company of Supply (Conab), a subdivision of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (Mapa), as a sequence to a process of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops, initiated in October 2007.

² Cotton seed, peanuts, rice, beans, castor beans, corn, soybeans, oats, rye, barley, sunflower, sorghum, wheat and triticale.

3 The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) is a monthly survey of forecast and monitoring of harvests of the main agricultural products, about which data are obtained through the Municipal Commissions (Comea) and/or Regional Commissions (Corea), united at state level by the Agriculture Statistics Coordinating Group (GCEA) and later evaluated, at national level, by the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics (Cepagro). This commission is formed by representatives of IBGE and Mapa.