The national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds2 indicates a production of the order of 151.2 million tons, 1.2% superior to the record harvest in 2010 (149.5 million tons)...

The national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds² indicates a production of the order of 151.2 million tons, 1.2% superior to the record harvest in 2010 (149.5 million tons). That is what the second estimate of the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA)³ in 2011 indicates. The area to be harvested in 2011, of 48.1 million hectares, presents a 3.3% increase against the harvested area in 2010. The three main crops(rice, corn and soybeans), which together represent 90.5% of the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds, account for 82.3% of the area to be harvested and record, in relation to the previous year, variations of +1.6%, +1.9% and +1.8%, respectively. As regards production, rice and soybeans present, in this order, increases of +12.7% and +0.7%, whereas corn has a decrease of -1.6%.

Among Major Regions, this production volume of cereals, legumes and oilseeds presents the following distribution: South region, 60.3 million tons; Central West, 55.1 million tons; Southeast, 16.5 million tons; Northeast, 15.1 million tons; and North, 4.2 million tons. Compared to the last harvest, increases are found in regions North (4.5%), Northeast (27.6%) and Central West (4.9%), and decreases in regions Southeast (3.1%) and South (5.9%).  In this assessment for 2011, Paraná regains the leading position in the national grain production, with a 20.0% participation.

February estimate in relation to the production obtained in 2010

Among the 25 selected products, 13 presented positive variation in the production estimate in relation to the previous year: herbaceous cotton seed (57.4%), peanuts in shell 1^st harvest (6.6%), paddy rice (12.7%), potatoes 1^st harvest (13.8%), potatoes 2^nd harvest (12.1%), dry beans 1^st harvest (30.5%), dry beans 2^nd harvest (17.4%), castor beans (59.4%), cassava (5.8%), corn grain 2^nd harvest (0.4%), dry soybeans (0.7%), sorghum grains (6.1%) and triticale grains (17.8%).  With negative variation: peanuts in shell 2^nd harvest (10.7%), oats seed (24.5%), potatoes 3^rd harvest (5.3%), cacao beans (3.4%), coffee beans (9.3%), sugarcane (9.3%), onions (4.5%), barley grains (10.9%), dry beans 3^rd harvest (9.6%), oranges (2.6%), corn grain 1^st harvest (2.9%), and wheat grains (18.3%).

It must be mentioned that for the second and third harvests of some crops and for winter crops (wheat, oats, rye and barley), which, due to the agricultural calendar, do not permit a production assessment, data correspond to the projections based on previous years.

Highlights in the February estimate in relation to January

HERBACEOUS COTTON (seed) – The estimate production is of the order of 4.6 million tons, 2.4% larger than that recorded in January. This new survey increases the previously recorded trend of expansion in the planted area, which now increases by 2.6%, as a consequence of the new numbers in Goiás. In that state, there were also influences from low stocks, the growing domestic and foreign demand, and the good prices, which motivated producers to plant cotton. The 92,770 ha harvest area in Goiás presented an increase of 37.7% in relation to January information, whereas the expected production of 380,357 t increased 38.6%. Mato Grosso, the main producer, which participates with 53.7% of national production, did not have data altered in relation to the January 2011 survey. The planted area in that state is 652,368 ha, with an expected production of 2,476,745 t, in case the expected average yield of 3,797 kg/ha is confirmed. Bahia, second major national producer, made readjustments in area (0.5%) and production (0.1%) in relation to January.

PEANUTS (in shell) 1^st harvest – The area to be harvested is 71,526 ha, 4.2% wider than that informed in the previous month. The expected production of 219,145 t is 35.5% superior to the amount displayed in January. This expressive increase is principally due to reassessments in data from São Paulo, major national producer, with participation of 86.5% in national production.  In that state, favorable prices in the planting period and the use of sugarcane renewal areas caused, in comparison with last month, an increase of 5.2% in the area to be planted. Confirmed by the expected average yield that was reviewed with an increase of 36.3%, replacing the previous value that referred to an average of the last harvests and because of the fact that the crop, which concentrates in the central west of the state, have benefited from favorable weather conditions. At the moment, a production of 189,595 t is expected for the state of São Paulo, 43.4% larger than the information from January.

RICE (paddy) – The estimate production is 12.8 million tons, 0.8% inferior to the survey in January. This evaluation slightly alters the previous picture, which was a production of 12,859,611 tons. The forecasted area of 2.7 million hectares records a decrease of 0.9%. This decrease occurred, as a general manner, in federation units that are little expressive in exploiting the grain. Rio Grande do Sul, the main producer, with 64.4% of participation in national production, did not have data altered.

DRY BEANS 1^st harvest – An area of 2.3 million hectares is expected to be harvested, with a production of 2.0 million tons, inferior 8.0% and 7.4%, respectively, to those of January. Among the factors considered the main responsible for the decreases are the rural producers’ decision for planting other crops, such as soybeans, and the excessive rains during the harvest, which affected crops in important producing centers like Paraná, Minas Gerais and Goiás.

DRY BEANS 2^nd harvest – The area to be harvested, of 1,353,027 ha, and the expected production of 1,400,032 tons, against January, are superior 3.8% and 15.4%, respectively.  In the analysis of these numbers, we must consider that, in the Northeast region, where a 40.1% gain in production is forecasted, for most of these informing federation units, among which Bahia is, data are projections. On the other hand, in the Southeast region there were decreases in area (-7.0%) and production (-0.7%) as a consequence of modified data in Minas Gerais, reducing 9.0% of area and 1.2% of the expected production in the previous survey, due to the Indian summer, which hindered soil preparation, delaying the planting and discouraging producers from investing in this activity. In Paraná, major national producer, the 185,590 ha area to be harvested indicates a 1.3% growth and the expected production of 333,449 t grew 21.8% against the January information, principally due to the 20.2% gain on average yield, estimated in February as 1,797 kg/ha.

CORN (grain) 1^st harvest – A production of 32.3 million tons is expected, showing an increase of 0.7% in relation to the previous estimate. Participation in national production, according to the four major producing regions, is distributed like this: South (42.7%), Southeast (28.7%), Central West (10.9%) and Northeast (13.6%). The South region records an increase of 0.4% in production, due to reassessment of average yield of the crop in Paraná.  In the north and west areas of that state, the first harvests amounted so far approximately 5% of the forecasted area, estimated at 734,734 ha. Productivity, which has gone beyond expectations, was reassessed to 7,336 kg/ha, bringing a 1.0% gain in production.

CORN (grain) 2^nd harvest – Production must reach 22.9 million tons, 14.4% superior to the January information. This increase results from the new information surveyed in Paraná and Goiás. In Paraná, the corn planted between January and April records an area of the order of 1,569,858 ha, 15.1% wider than that of last month, with 20% of it already planted. The crops that characterize the late planting are located, notably, in the micro regions of Toledo, Campo Mourão, Cascavel, Maringá, Londrina, Cornélio Procópio and Umuarama, which concentrate more than 85% of the total forecasted area. Currently, the main stages of crop development are those of germination (60%), vegetative development (39%) and flowering (1%).  The estimate production, in case the forecasted planting is confirmed, is of the order of 6,863,227 t, 31.0% larger than the previous information. In Goiás, with the favorable market perspectives, the planted area of 530,000 ha and the expected production of 3,392,000 tons are superior 15.4% and 59.5%, respectively.

DRY SOYBEANS – The estimate production of 69.0 million tons is 2.0% larger than the January information. This increase is due to a positive reassessment of 1.8% at yielding, as the weather conditions remain favorable in the main producing centers. In Paraná, the second major national producer, the forecasted area of 4,501,588 ha, when compared to that previously informed, shows a slight variation (+0.1%). The harvest has already finished in 5% of the total area occupied with the crop. In the central south and southwest areas of the state, where the oilseed was planted later, crops in general go through the stages of flowering and fructification. In the north and west areas of the state, where crops were seeded earlier, the main stages are those of fructification and maturation, with the more advanced already being harvested. The estimate production of 13.9 million tons is 1.1% larger, for an average yield of 3,097 kg/ha, 1.0% superior to the January information. Goiás also influenced production growth in the country. With the reaping of the harvest, in the southwest of Goiás, average yields of 55 bags have been registered per hectare.  Influenced by the great results of the beginning harvest, the average yield of the state was reassessed to 3,175 kg/ha (+11.8%), with a production of 8.0 million tons projected in this evaluation, 13.4% larger than the previous information. In Mato Grosso do Sul the situation is similar. Weather conditions favor the crop and, although the area was maintained, there was a readjustment of 5.2% in yielding and, consequently, in production, which becomes estimated at 5.3 million tons.

1 Due to the need of crop data users, surveys relative to cereals, legumes and oilseeds have been conducted in close partnership with the National Company of Supply (Conab), a subdivision of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (Mapa), as a sequence to a process of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops, initiated in October 2007.

2 Cotton seed, peanuts, rice, beans, castor beans, corn, soybeans, oats, rye, barley, sunflower, sorghum, wheat and triticale.

3 The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) is a monthly survey of forecast and monitoring of harvests of the main agricultural products, about which data are obtained through the Municipal Commissions (Comea) and/or Regional Commissions (Corea), united at state level by the Agriculture Statistics Coordinating Group (GCEA) and later evaluated, at national level, by the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics (Cepagro). This commission is formed by representatives of IBGE and from Mapa.