The 12th estimate of the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds indicates a production of 149.5 million tons...

The 12^th estimate of the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds indicates a production of 149.5 million tons, 11.6% superior to that obtained in 2009 (134.0 million tons), and 0.4% larger than that of November. The indicator surpasses the record 2008 harvest (146.0 million tons) in 2.4%. In comparison with November, December recorded variations in production estimates of six products: oats seed (+11.6%), barley grains (+1.3%), total dry beans (-1.2%), total corn grain (+0.7%), wheat grains (+4.2%), and triticale grains (+5.8%).

IBGE also issued, in December, the third forecast of area and production for the 2011 harvest, in regions Southeast, South and Central West, and in the states of Rondônia, Maranhão, Piauí and Bahia. In this third forecast, the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds for 2011 is estimated in 145.8 million tons, 2.5% inferior to that recorded in 2010. This is especially due to the lowered forecast of the South region (-8.8%).

Production of soybeans increased 20.2% in relation to 2009

The harvested area in 2010, from 46.6 million hectares, presents a decrease of 1.3% in relation to that of 2009. The main three crops – rice, corn and soybeans –, which together represent 90.9% of the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds, account for 83.5% of the harvested area and record, in relation to the previous year, variations of -6.3%, -6.5% and +7.1%, respectively. As regards production, corn and soybeans present, in this order, increases of 9.4% and 20.2%, whereas rice has a decrease of 10.1%.

In the South region, the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds reached 64.1 million tons; in the Central West, 52.5 million tons; in the Southeast, 17.1 million tons; in the Northeast, 11.9 million tons; and in the North, 4.0 million tons. Compared to the last harvest, increases were found in regions North (6.0%), South (22.3%), Central West (7.4%), and Northeast (0.9%), while the Southeast presented a 0.7% decrease.

Paraná was the leading national grain producer in 2010, with a participation of 21.6%, followed by Mato Grosso, with 19.3%, and Rio Grande do Sul, with 16.9%. These states together represent 57.8% of national total.

2010 Agricultural Production – December estimate in relation to November

Bean production is calculated in 3,223,074 tons, 1.2% inferior to that of the previous survey, considering the three harvests of the crop. In comparison with November, there were negative variations in the production of 1^st and 2^nd harvests (-1.3% and -1.9%, respectively) and positive in the 3^rd (0.7%).

Both corn harvests must amount 56.1 million tons in 2010. This represents a 0.7% increase in comparison with November. Paraná is the main national corn producer (24.2%), with a close production volume between the first (6.9 million tons) and the second harvest (6.6 million tons). Mato Grosso, with 14.6% participation, concentrates production in the second harvest, with 7.8 million tons, representing 95.3% of the amount produced in the state.  

For wheat, the obtained production of 6.0 million tons was 4.2% superior to that informed in November. In Rio Grande do Sul, the predominance of dry weather and low temperatures favored crops, what caused the positive review of 9.2% in the estimated average yield, now at 2,490 kg/ha against the 2,280 kg/ha previously forecasted.

2010 Agricultural Production – December estimate in relation to the 2009 harvest

Among the 25 selected products, 16 presented positive variation in the production estimate in relation to the previous year: herbaceous cotton seed (0.1%), oats seed (52.9%), potatoes 1^st harvest (5.3%), potatoes 2^nd harvest (0.9%), potatoes 3^rd harvest (6.9%), cacao beans (3.9%), coffee beans (17.6%), sugarcane (5.7%), onions (9.6%), barley grains (33.5%), dry beans 3^rd harvest (16.9%), oranges (4.1%), castor beans (3.0%), corn grain 2^nd harvest (28.6%), dry soybeans (20.2%) and wheat grains (20.1%). With negative variation: peanuts in shell 1^st harvest (16.9%), peanuts in shell 2^nd harvest (40.0%), paddy rice (10.1%), dry beans 1^st harvest (6.5%), dry beans 2^nd harvest (18,0%), cassava (4.6%), corn grain 1^st harvest (0.2%), sorghum grains (18.3%) and triticale grains (19.1%).

The two major summer crops, corn and soybeans, had production gains of 9.4% and 20.2%, respectively. In the case of corn, the highlight was the second harvest, whose production increased 28.6% as a consequence of the expanded cultivation area, due to the price recovery and the good weather conditions in the main producing centers. In the first harvest of the crop, due to the large stocks, the low prices at the planting time, and the uncertainty of future demands, there was an expressive decrease in the area (15.3%). However, with favorable weather conditions, yield increased 17.6%, causing a 0.2% decrease in production.  For soybeans, considering the higher appreciations and liquidity, the planted area recorded an enlargement of 7.1% replacing the previously cultivated crops, like corn, as well as, in a smaller scale, cotton and rice. Besides, average yield increased, as weather conditions were normal, what contributed to the 20.2% growth in production.

Among the main grains, paddy rice was the one with the poorest performance, with a 10.1% decrease in production due to excessive rains, which postponed the seeding and caused the loss of areas in some municipalities of Rio Grande do Sul, major national producer.

Wheat presented a 20.2% increase in production. Figures would have been higher if there had not been for the diminished cultivated area in all federation units due to low prices. Weather conditions that prevailed during the crop cycle made the obtained average yield of 2,749 kg/ha 34.8% higher than that of 2009, becoming the historical record. On the other hand, the production of 6.0 million tons was little inferior to that of 1987, the highest already recorded in the country, when 6.1 million tons were harvested.

For coffee, the 17.6% increase in production, in relation to the 2009 harvest, results principally from a peculiarity of Arabica coffee, predominating species in the country, to alternate years of high and low productivity.

Perspectives for the 2011 harvest

IBGE issued, in December, the third forecast of area and production for the 2011 harvest, in regions Southeast, South and Central West, and in the states of Rondônia, Maranhão, Piauí and Bahia.  The production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds for 2011 is estimated in 145.8 million tons, 2.5% inferior to that recorded in 2010. This is especially due to the lowered forecast of the South region (-8.8%). The area to be harvested (47.4 million hectares) increased 1.8%, considering its enlargement in practically all states, except Paraná, Santa Catarina and Goiás.

Among the six products analyzed for the 2011 summer harvest, three presented positive change in relation to the 2010 production: herbaceous cotton seed (37.0%), paddy rice (12.6%) and dry beans 1^st harvest (28.0%). With negative variation: peanuts in shell 1^st harvest (22.3%), corn grain 1^st harvest (6.0%) and dry soybeans (0.8%).

In relation to the area to be harvested, except for peanuts in shell 1^st harvest and corn 1^st harvest, which recorded decreases of 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively, the other products presented positive variations: herbaceous cotton seed (29.0%), paddy rice (1.9%), dry beans 1^st harvest (12.2%) and dry soybeans (1.0%).

HERBACEOUS COTTON (seed)

The third forecast for cotton seed production is of the order of 4.0 million tons, against 2.9 million tons obtained in 2010, indicating an increase of 37.0%. This survey reinforces the trend previously identified, principally, before the enlargement of the area (28.8%), considering the best prices for the crops in internal and foreign markets. Mato Grosso, the main producer, participating with 52.8%, kept the previous figures, which showed increases of 33.7% in the area to be harvested and 45.8% in the expected production.

PEANUTS (in shell)

São Paulo is the main producer, with almost 84.0% of national production. In this month, the planted area, in the group of informing states, is 66,055 ha, 0.3% smaller than the harvested area in the previous harvest. The expected production is 158,291 t, 22.3% inferior to the quantity of the previous harvest, which amounted 203,698 t.

RICE (paddy)

In the case of rice, in this third national assessment for 2011, the expected production of 12.8 million tons is 12.6% superior to that obtained in 2010. There was, in relation to the November forecast, a 4.2% increase, as Rio Grande do Sul, main producer, with 64.4% of participation in national production, increased 4.9% the expected production. The area increased 1.1%, because of the recovery of planting that in the 2010 harvest, due to hard rain in the period of seeding, could not be done.

DRY BEANS 1^st harvest

The third forecast for the national harvest of beans planted in the rain season shows a production of 2.0 million tons, surpassing in 28.0% the production of the current year. This increase must be credited to the hope this harvest develops in normal weather conditions, with an estimated average yield of 869 kg/ha, 14.0% superior to that obtained in the corresponding harvest of 2010. Prices set in the market during planting stimulated cultivation, recording a planted area of 2.3 million hectares, 3.6% larger than that of 2010.

CORN GRAIN 1st harvest

For corn 1^st harvest, a production of 32.0 million tons is expected, 6.0% inferior to that observed in 2010, notably due to the forecast of average yield 5.6% inferior, as well as the planted area or area to be planted, which decreased 3.4%. In this third forecast keeps the unfavorable situation explained by the low appreciation the product presented during this year, the stocked volumes and the high production costs. Minas Gerais increased the area to be harvested (1.2%) and in production (2.9%), surpassing Paraná, which was the major producer of this crop harvest until then. As previously observed, producers from Paraná, in this first period of planting, have chosen the cultivation of soybeans and beans. On the other hand, an expectation remains in the latest years, about increase in the area of cultivation in this second harvest.  

DRY SOYBEANS

 The expected production of soybeans, of 68.0 million tons, indicates a negative variation of 0.8% in comparison to the volume obtained in 2010. The area to be harvested shows an increase of 1.1%, whereas the expected average yield presents decrease of 1.8%, being respectively, 23.5 million hectares and 2,885 kg/ha. We may observe that the area to be cultivated kept the upward trend in all producing states. Mato Grosso, major national producer, with participation of 29.1% in production, recorded a 2.4% increase in the area. In a general manner, the enlargement of the cultivated area occurs principally in areas previously occupied with corn, as well as areas of rice, considering the higher appreciations and liquidity of soybeans.

OTHER CROPS

Besides grains, potatoes 1^st harvest, coffee beans, tobacco and cassava are also listed in the forecast for 2011.

POTATOES 1^st harvest

For the third forecast of potatoes 1^st harvest, an area to be harvested is informed with 72,684 hectares, considering a small loss of area, due to draught in Rio Grande do Sul.  At a national level, in this survey, the average yield presented a positive variation of 6.7% in relation to that obtained in 2010, which associated to the 8.1% increase of the area to be harvested, provided an estimated production of 1,772,119 tons, surpassing in 15.3% the harvest of the same period in 2010. This happened in spite of the unfavorable market for rural producer, due to the severe price drop of the crop in the second half-year of 2010.

COFFEE BEANS

The first estimate of coffee for the national harvest to be harvested in 2011 amounts 2,600,641 t, or 43.3 million bags of 60 kg of the crop in processed grains. The decrease percentage in relation to 2010 is 9.1%. The area to be harvested is 2,152,511 ha, 0.3% inferior to that of 2010. The total area occupied with the crop decreased 0.9%. The forecasted decrease in production, in relation to the 2010 harvest results, principally, from a peculiarity of Arabica coffee, predominating species in the country (70%), which alternates years of high and low productivity.

TOBACCO LEAVES

In relation to tobacco, the Brazilian production concentrates in the South region, which accounts for almost 98% of national total, with around 700 producing municipalities. The main national producer is Rio Grande do Sul. In the group of federation units involved in this survey, the national perspective for the crop is the decreased planted area or area to be planted (-0.1%), in relation to the last harvest. In this survey of the new harvest, the expected production is 883,405 t, 13.8% superior to the last harvest, with the expected yield of 1,977 kg/ha, 13.8% superior to the obtained in the previous harvest.

CASSAVA

Field investigations of December indicated for the cassava crop to be harvested in 2011 an area of the order of 1.9 million hectares, which is 5.1% larger than the harvested area in 2010. National cassava production for 2011 is estimated in 27.1 million tons, a positive variation of 9.2% in relation to the 2010 harvest, with no difference in the destination of root production, in data collection, between industry and domestic consumption (table cassava).