IBGE issued, in October, the first forecast for the 2011 harvest in the Southeast, South and Central-West regions and in the states of Rondônia, Maranhão, Piauí and Bahia.

Among the six products analyzed for the 2011 summer harvest , three registered a positive change in relation to the 2010 production:

herbaceous cotton seed (27.5%), rice in husk (7.9%) and 1^st harvest beans in grain (25.8%). Recording a negative change: 1^st harvest peanut in husk (-11.5%), 1^st harvest corn in grain (-7.5%) and soybean in grain (-0.6%). Concerning the area to be harvested, except for 1^st harvest peanut in husk, which decreased by 3.6%, the remaining products recorded positive changes: herbaceous cotton seed (21.1%), rice in husk (1.2%) and 1st harvest beans in grain (11.8%), 1ª harvest corn (0.3%) and soybean in grain (0.8%).

HERBACEOUS COTTON (seed)

The first forecast for cotton reaches 3.7 million tons, against 2.9 million tons obtained in 2010, pointing to an increase of 27.5%. The increase is mainly due to the enlargement of the area as a result of a better quotation of the product both in the internal and external markets. Except for Goiás, the other Federation Units expect gains. Mato Grosso, the main producer, accounting for 52.3% of the national production, records increases of 24.6% in the area to be harvested and of 34.6% in the expected production. It is worth highlighting that, in this state, considering the delay of the rains and the consequent delay of soybean planting, it may not be possible to plant the 2^nd cotton harvest. As a result, there may be an increase in the 1^st cotton harvest and a decrease in the soybean area.

RICE (in grain)

The expected rice production of 12.2 million tons is higher 7.9% than the one obtained in 2010. The increase is mainly due to Rio Grande do Sul, the main producer, accounting for 64.1% of the national production, which records an increase of 13.1% in the expected production and 5.3% in the area. It is possible to notice in this state that the areas, which could not be established in the 2010 harvest due to intensive rains in the sowing period, have been recovered. Another highlight is that Mato Grosso, the biggest producing state of the cereal in Central-West, registers a contraction in the harvested area (-16.9%) due to the legal difficulty in opening new areas and consequently in starting rice planting in the first year after deforesting.

BEANS (in grain)

1^st harvest – The national harvest of beans planted in the beginning of the raining period in 2011 points to the expected production of 2.0 million tons, 25.8% higher than the accomplished production in 2010. The increase of 11.8% in the area to be harvested, due to the convenient prices in this 1^st harvest planting, as well as the expected growth of 12.5% in the average yield, as long as climate conditions are normal, are the main contributors to the increase in relation to the same planting period for the 2010 harvest.

CORN (in grain)

1st harvest – For the 1^st corn harvest, a production of 31.3 million tons is expected, -7.5% in relation to the one observed in 2010 mainly due to the expected fall of –7.8% in the average yield. The planted or to-be-planted area records a contraction of –3.0%. The contributing factors to this picture are the product high production cost and low quotation all over 2010. It is worth highlighting that Paraná, up to then the main producer of this product harvest, records decreases in area (18.7%) and in production (22.2%), losing position to Minas Gerais.

SOYBEANS (in grain)

The first soybean forecast for 2011, 68.1 million tons, points to a change of –0.6% in relation to the volume obtained in 2010. The area to be harvested records an increase of 0.8%, while the expected yield, a decrease of -1.4%: respectively, 23.5 million hectares and 2,897 kg/ha.

It is worth mentioning that for both soybean and corn the climate conditions were excellent in 2010, resulting in record historical average yields for both of them. In order to estimate the 2011 harvest yield, the results of the last five years are used. By means of the average, disregarding the extreme values, both products yield contractions, in the 2010 and 2011 harvest comparison, are observed. Moreover, field evaluations in the South Region take into account a probable water deficiency due to La Niña, though there is a consensus that no damages can be indicated up to the moment.

In October, expected grain harvest is 11.0% higher than in 2009

The tenth estimate of the national harvest of cereal, legumes and oilseeds, performed by the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production³, points to a production of 148.8 million tons, 11.0% higher than in 2009 (134.0 million tons), 0.1% lower than the estimate of September and 1.9% higher than the 2008 harvest (146.0 million tons), which was a record. The area to be harvested in 2010, of 46.6 million hectares, presents a decrease of 1.4% compared with that in 2009.

The three main cultures, which altogether account for 91.1% of the production of cereals, legumes and oilseed, rice, corn and soybean, account for 83.5% of the planted area and record, in relation to the previous year, changes of –6.2%, -6.8% and +7.2%, respectively. Concerning production, corn and soybean present, respectively, increases of 8.5% and 20.3%, while rice, a decrease of 10.2%.

The production volume of cereal, legumes and oilseeds expected for 2010 is distributed as follows:

South Region, 63.8 million tons; Central West, 52.2 million tons; Southeast, 17.0 million tons; Northeast, 11.7 million 7 tons and North, 4.0 million tons. Compared with the past harvest, increases are recorded for North, 6.0%, South, 21.6%, Central-West, 6.9% and decreases, for Northeast, -0.1% and Southeast, -1.0%.

It is possible to observe that Paraná recovered leadership in the national production of grains, accounting for 21,6%. It was followed by Mato Grosso, with 19.4%, which last year occupied this position. In 2009 Paraná’s harvest was harmed by adverse climate conditions: drought in the beginning of the year, frost in June and excessive rains in the final period of the winter cultures.

2010 Agricultural Production – October/ September survey comparison of 2010

In October, there were highlights in production estimates of four products, compared to figures in September: total beans in grain (-1.6%), total corn in grain (+0.0%), soybean in grain (-0.3%) and wheat in grain (+3.8%). The contractions observed for beans and soybeans and the slight increase in corn are notably due to reevaluations in the final data of the products harvest.

For wheat, the main culture of the winter, the expected production of 5.7 million tons is higher 3.8% than the one obtained in the previous month. That increase is mainly due to the changes of data in Rio Grande do Sul, second producer, responsible for 31.8% of the national production. In this state, the predominance of dry weather and low temperatures has benefited crops, leading to the positive revision of 8.6% in the average yield now estimated in 2,280 kg/ha against 2,100 kg/ha forecast last month.

2010 Agricultural Production – October estimate in relation to the production of 2009

Among the 25 selected products , fifteen presented a positive change in production estimates in relation to the previous year: herbaceous cotton seed (0.2%), oats in grain (37.0%), 1^st harvest (5.3%), 2^nd (1.0%) and 3^rd harvest potatoes (7.0%), cacao nuts (3.2%), coffee in grain (18.0%), sugarcane (6.0%), onions (6.1%), barley in grain (31.8%), 3rd harvest beans in grain (16.0%), oranges (3.9%), 2nd harvest corn in grain (27.2%), soybeans in grain (20.3%) and wheat in grain (14.2%). Recording a negative change: 1^st harvest peanut in husk (-16.9%), 2^nd harvest peanut in husk (-40.5%), rice in husk (-10.2%), 1st harvest beans in grain (-5.5%), 2^nd harvest beans in grain (-15.8%), castor beans (-8.4%), cassava (-0.6%), 1st harvest corn in grain (-0.8%), sorghum in grain (-18.7%) and triticale in grain (-23.5%).

For soybeans, upon finished harvest in this survey, the obtained output (68.5 million tons) recorded a positive change of 20.3% compared with the volume obtained in 2009. It surpassed the previous record of 59.2 million tons in 2008. Harvested area increased 7.2%, having reached 23.3 million hectares; the average yield, of 2,937 kg/ha, increased by 12.2%. The expansion of the area notably occurred in areas previously planted with corn and also, in a smaller scale, in those with cotton and rice, since the highest quotations and liquidity of soybean stimulated the enlargement of the planting area. Concerning the yield gains, the climate conditions were more favorable, as the drought of the 2009 harvest was not repeated.

1

Due to the needs of users of crop data, surveys relative to cereals, legumes and oilseeds have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency of the Ministry of Agriculture (CONAB), a subdivision of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA) as a sequence to a process of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops, which started in October 2007.

2

^{cotton seed, peanut, rice, beans, castor beans, corn, soybean, oat, rye, barley, sunflower, sorghum, wheat and triticale.}

3

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) is a monthly survey to forecast and monitor the harvest of the main agricultural products, of which information is obtained by means of the Municipal Commissions (COMEA) and/or Regional Commissions (COREA). These commissions are consolidated at state level by the Agriculture Statistics Coordinating Groups (GCEA) and, later, evaluated at national level, by the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics (CEPAGRO). This Commission is formed by representatives from IBGE and from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA).

IBGE issued, in October, the first forecast for the 2011 harvest in the Southeast, South and Central-West regions and in the states of Rondônia, Maranhão, Piauí and Bahia. In this first forecast, the production of cereal, legumes and oilseeds² for 2011 is expected to reach 144.5 million tons, 2.8% less than the one expected for 2010, mainly due to the lower estimates for Southeast (-1.9%) and South (-9.0%). Conversely, the harvested area (47.4 million hectares) rises by 1.7%,considering the increase in practically all states, except for Paraná, Santa Catarina and Goiás. The figures estimated in the surveyed regions and states were summed to estimates based on information obtained for the Federation Units in the previous years. Due to the agricultural calendar, there are no first estimates for the Federation Units yet. The information based on the harvest forecast accounts for 70.5% of the expected national production, whereas the current estimates account for 29.5% of the total value.