In July 2010, the industrial production advanced 0.4% compared with June, in the seasonally adjusted series, after three consecutive months of decline...

In July 2010, the industrial production advanced 0.4% compared with June, in the seasonally adjusted series, after three consecutive months of decline. In relation to the same month of 2009, there was expansion of 8.7%, completing nine consecutive months of positive rates. The accumulated in the first seven months of the year (15.0%) was below that recorded in the first half year (16.2%). The accumulated in the last 12 months (8.3%) increased the growth rhythm in relation to June (6.5%), keeping the upward trend initiated in October 2009.

With the 0.4% increase between June and July, industrial production was 1.7% below the record achieved in March. The increase in July was disseminated and reached 17 of the 27 branches investigated. Major performances for the overall result were those of automotive vehicles (3.6%), other chemical products (3.0%), pharmaceutical products (4.6%) and other equipment of transportation (6.8%) – all with negative rates in the previous month (respectively, -1.0%, -4.4%, -3.1% and -4.8%). It is also worth highlighting the 2.3% increase in petroleum refining and alcohol production, in the second consecutive month of growth, after a decrease of 3.5% in May.

The main negative influences came from machines and equipment (-6.0%), editing and printing (-5.6%), metal products (-3.1%) and rubber and plastic (-2.1%).

Among the categories of use, still in the comparison with June, intermediate goods and durable consumer goods, both with an expansion of 0.9%, kept the strongest growth rhythm. Semi- and non-durable consumer goods had a result close to the general result, with 0.3%; and capital goods (-0.2%) were the only with a negative rate in this comparison.

Even with the rise between June and July, the quarterly moving average remained negative for the second consecutive month: the quarter closed in July it was 0.3% below the level of June. Still in this index, durable consumer goods (-0.9%) had the biggest loss among the categories of use, followed by capital goods (-0.7%), which interrupted 13 months of positive results, and semi- and non-durable consumer goods (-0.5%), which was negative for the third consecutive month. Intermediate goods, with a variation of 0.1%, was the only to record a rise in July, after being stable in June (0.0%).

In the comparison with July 2009, rise in 57 of the 76 subsectors

In relation to July 2009, growth was 8.7%, the lowest rate since the 5.3% recorded in November 2009. July 2010, with 22 days, had a working day less than the same month of the previous year (23).

The index was sustained by the growth in 57 of the 76 subsectors, 21 of the 27 branches and 65% of the surveyed products. Among the sectors, the main positive influences on the overall rate came from automotive vehicles (26.5%), basic metallurgy (19.5%), food products (7.3%), machinery and equipment (14.5%), mining and quarrying industry (10.1%), petroleum refining and alcohol production (6.9%) and beverages (15.4%). Major items were: tractors, trucks and automobiles; iron-niobium and carbon steel square bars; crystallized sugar and concentrated orange juice; carrier-transporters, forklift trucks; iron ore; diesel, alcohol and naphtha for petrochemistry; beer, draft beer and soft drinks. The most relevant negative impacts came from office and computer equipment (-15.4%) and editing and printing (-6.9%), pressed by the smallest production of computers, in the first branch, and of CDs and school books in the second.

Still in the comparison to July 2009, indexes were positive for all categories of use, with capital goods (21.1%) recording growth rhythm much superior to that of industry in general (8.7%). This result was sustained by positive indexes in almost all its subsectors, with capital goods for equipment of transportation (36.8%) exerting the main influence, followed by capital goods for construction (95.8%), for industrial (18.9%) and agricultural (55.9%) purposes, and for mixed use (4.8%).

The segment intermediate goods (11.3%), also above the average of industry, showed the ninth consecutive increase in the comparison month/same month of the previous year, influenced by all its subsectors, with highlights being products associated to basic metallurgy activities (19.5%), automotive vehicles (32.1%), mining and quarrying industry (10.3%), petroleum refining and alcohol production (7.0%) and food products (12.7%). In these groups the highlights were the greater production of iron-niobium and carbon steel square bars; chassis for trucks and buses, and pieces and accessories for vehicles; iron ore; diesel and naphtha for petrochemistry; crystallized sugar. Positive influence was also exerted by groups of inputs for civil construction (9.5%) and packages (9.7%).

Increasing in a slower rhythm than the general average (8.7%) are semi- and non-durable consumer goods (3.9%) and durable consumer goods (2.2%). In the first segment, except for other non-durable (-1.3%), all groups recorded positive performance, with food products and beverages for household consumption (7.7%), marking the main influence, especially due to items beer, draft beer, concentrated orange juice and soft drinks. Highlights were also the positive results of fuels (6.8%) and semi-durable (4.3%), stimulated by items alcohol and gasoline, in the first group, and footwear in the second.

Still below the general index, the production of durable consumer goods grew 2.2% in comparison with 2009, greatly sustained by increases in automobiles (5.1%), “brown line” household appliances (20.3%), and cell phones (15.5%), since subsectors “white line” household appliances (-33.7%), other household appliances (-8.3%) and furniture articles (-3.4%) exerted negative pressure.

In the accumulated of the first seven months of the year, against the same period of 2009, the increase was 15.0%, with a generalized growth profile that reached 25 activities and all categories of use. Among the sectors, automotive vehicles (31.4%) and machinery and equipment (37.5%) kept the leadership in terms of contribution to the overall rate of industry, stimulated by the positive results of most surveyed products (around 96% and 86%, respectively). Highlights are also expansions in basic metallurgy (29.8%), other chemical products (15.9%), metal products (32.6%), mining and quarrying industry (15.4%), food products (5.7%) and rubber and plastic (19.8%). In terms of products, highlights were: automobiles, tractors and trucks; carriers-transporters, compressors, microwave ovens and motor graders; carbon steel and special steel ingots, blocks and billets, and carbon steel square bars; herbicides, parts and pieces for capital goods; iron ore; crystallized sugar and concentrated orange juice; tires, pieces and accessories of rubber and plastic for the car industry. The branches other equipment of transportation (-5.9%) and tobacco (-10.4%) exerted the two only negative pressures upon the overall average.

Among the categories of use, still in the accumulated in the year, capital goods (28.3%) remained with the highest rate, followed by durable consumer goods (17.6%) and intermediate goods (16.4%), all with expansion above national average (15.0%). Semi- and non-durable consumer goods, with an increase of 7.0%, had a more moderate growth.

In summary, the positive result of July (0.4%) reached 17 of the 27 industrial sectors and three of the four categories of use, reverting three consecutive months of decline. Still in the seasonally adjusted series, the quarterly moving average remained in decline (-0.3%), although with a less intense rate than that of June (-0.7%).

In the comparisons involving 2009, the predominance of positive results (decreasing, though) remained in the last four months. In the monthly index (8.7%) we may observe reduction in the growth rhythm against the accumulated in the first half year (16.2%). Such movement was followed by all categories of use and by 21 of the 27 investigated sectors, a reflex of the more moderate behavior of industrial activity in the last months and also of the elevation of the basis for comparison, because the second half of 2009 had a less intense rhythm than the first.