The national harvest of cereals, legumes and oil seeds must amount 146.4 million tons in 2010, becoming the largest of the national production history series...

The national harvest of cereals, legumes and oil seeds must amount 146.4 million tons in 2010, becoming the largest of the national production history series. In the July survey, this volume is 9.2% greater than that of 2009 (134.0 million tons) and 0.3% greater than the June estimate (145.9 million tons). This is what the seventh estimate of the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) indicates. The area to be harvested in 2010, of 46.8 million hectares, presents a decrease of 0.9% against 2009. The three main crops – soy, corn and rice –, that account for 83.1% of the planted area, present variations – +7.2%, -6.5% and -5.9% –, respectively, in relation to the previous year. As to their production (90.9% of the produced total), corn and soy recorded increases of 4.4% and 19.8%, respectively, and rice, a decrease of 10.3%.

The production volume of cereals, legumes and oil seed is expected to have the following regional distribution: South region, 63.1 million tons; Central West, 50.9 million tons; Southeast, 16.5 million tons; Northeast, 12.0 million tons; and North, 3.9 million tons. In comparison to the previous harvest, there was decrease only in the Southeast region (4.0%), whereas the others showed increases: North, 1.7%; Northeast, 2.3%; South, 20.3%; and Central West, 4.3%.

Modified estimates for seven products in the comparison with June

In relation to June, in the LSPA of July the highlights are the variations in the production estimates of seven items: herbaceous cotton seed (-1.4%), coffee in grain (+0.4%), beans in grain 3^rd harvest (+5.8%), corn in grain 2^nd harvest (+1.0%), soy in grain (+0.4%), sorghum in grain (+2.7%) and wheat in grain (+1.7%).

Herbaceous cotton seed

Production is estimated in 3.0 million tons, presenting reduction of 1.4% when compared to June.

Coffee in grain

The harvest is expected to reach 2,753,091 tons in 2010, or 45.8 million bags of 60 kg. The increase in relation to June is 0.4%. The total area occupied by the crop amounts 2,366,064 ha. The area destined to the harvest is 2,149,304 ha.

Total beans in grain

National bean production, considering the three harvests of the crop, is evaluated in 3,373,673 tons, 1.4% higher than that of the previous survey. Against data from June, beans 3^rd harvest presented the greatest variation, with a 5.8% growth.

Total corn in grain

The production of corn in grain, for both harvests of 2010, amounts 53.5 million tons, showing an increase of 10,678 tons over June. This increase is attributed to the second harvest of the crop, since the first one recorded a 0.5%decrease in production. The second harvest must reach 20.0 million tons, 1.0% superior to the information of last month.

Soy in grain

For soy, based on the surveys of July, the expected production of 68.3 million tons is 0.4% larger than that informed in June.

Sorghum in grain

The estimated sorghum production is 1,539,298 tons, surpassing in 2.7% the estimate of the previous month.

Wheat in grain

For wheat, the most important winter crop, the expected production of 5.3 million tons is 1.7% higher than that informed last month.

Production estimates in relation to 2009 are higher for 15 products

Among the 25 selected products, 15 presented positive variation in the production estimates in relation to the previous year: herbaceous cotton seeds (2.2%), oats in grain (36.9%), potatoes 1^st harvest (2.8%), potatoes 2^nd harvest (12.9%), coffee in grain (13.2%), sugarcane (1.2%), onions (2.1%), barley in grain (32.1%), beans in grain 3^rd harvest (21.6%), oranges (3.6%), castor beans in segment (18.1%), corn in grain 2^nd harvest (16.8%), soy in grain (19.8%), wheat in grain (7.4%) and triticale in grain (3.1%). With negative variation: peanuts in husk 1^st harvest (8.1%), peanuts in husk 2^nd harvest (12.8%), rice in husk (10.3%), potatoes 3^rd harvest (4.3%), cacao nuts (1.3%), beans in grain 1^st harvest (5.9%), beans in grain 2^nd harvest (9.6%), cassava (0.6%), corn in grain 1^st harvest (1.8%) and sorghum in grain (16.4%).

Representation of absolute changes of the main crops in comparison to the previous harvest:

Coffee production grows 13.2% in the comparison with 2009

Coffee, at the apogee of the 2010 harvest, has its production estimated in 2,753,091 tons, or 45.8 million bags of 60 kg in processed grains, against 40.5 million bags produced in 2009. Production grew 13.2% in relation to the previous year. The area to be harvested is 2,149,304 ha. The expected average yield is 1,281 kg/ha, 12.4% above that obtained in 2009.

For the whole country, a bumper harvest is expected in 2010, although quality problems may be considered grave. The generalized shortage of workers in the largest producing regions also aggravates the problem. What happens is that producers have to make use of the scarce and expensive labor to rapidly gather the whole harvest. Thus, the mixture of unripe grains and coffee berries reaches, in some cases, 50%, what may compromise the quality of the beverage. This fact is worsened by information that coffee stocks of good quality are already rare all over the country.

____________________________

¹Due to the need of crop data users, surveys relative to cereals, legumes and oilseed have been conducted in close partnership with National Company of Supply (Conab), a subdivision of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (Mapa), as a sequence to a process of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops, initiated in October 2007.