In June 2010, industrial production decreased 1.0% in relation to May, in the seasonally adjusted series...

In June 2010, industrial production decreased 1.0% in relation to May, in the seasonally adjusted series. It was the third consecutive negative rate, accumulating loss (-2.0%) in the three months of the period (April, May and July). In relation to the same month of 2009, there was expansion of 11.1%, the lowest figure since the 5.3% recorded in November of last year. With this result, the accumulated rate in the year (16.2%) was below that recorded in the last months. The indexes for the second quarter of 2010 were positive both in relation to the same period of 2009 (14.3%) and in relation to the immediately previous quarter (1.4%) – seasonally adjusted series. The accumulated in the last 12 months (6.5%) increased the growth rhythm in relation to May (4.5%), keeping the upward trend initiated in October of last year.

In the indicator accumulated in the first half of the year, the overall rate was 16.2%, the highest result since the beginning of the time series, reflecting especially the low basis for comparison due to the effects of the international economic crisis at the end of 2008. With this result, we may observe predominance of positive rates, which reached all categories of use, 68 of the 76 subsectors, 25 of the 27 activities and 76% of the investigated products. Among the sectors, the major positive contribution continued to be that of automotive vehicles (32.3%), partially supported by the increased production of approximately 96% of the surveyed products. Still in this comparison, highlights were also the performance of machines and equipment (41.9%), basic metallurgy (31.9%), other chemical products (18.4%), metal products (35.8%), mining and quarrying industry (16.2%) and rubber and plastic (22.4%).

In terms of products, the highlights in these branches were: automobiles, tractors and trucks; carrier-transporter machines, refrigerators, microwave ovens and compressors; carbon steel and special steel ingots, blocks and billets, and carbon steel bobbins; herbicides, paints and varnishes for construction; parts and pieces for capital goods; iron ore; tires and pieces and accessories of rubber and plastic for the car industry. On the other hand, only other equipment of transportation (-6.8%) and tobacco (-11.2%) recorded falls in the closing of the first half of the year.

Among the categories of use, the profile of results for the first six months of the year confirmed the more dynamic performance of capital goods (29.6%), followed by durable consumer goods (20.6%) and intermediate goods (17.4%), all with a two-digit and above national average expansion (16.2%). The segment semi- and non-durable consumer goods, with an increase of 7.5%, presented the most moderate expansion among the categories of use.

In summary, the result of June reinforces the signs of reduced rhythm in the industry activity, which marks the third consecutive month of fall in relation to the previous month in the seasonally adjusted series. In the quarterly moving average index, the reduction (-0.7%) observed in June interrupted the positive evolution of this indicator present since March of last year, period in which it accumulated an expansion of 22.1%. In comparison with the immediately previous quarter, still in the seasonally adjusted series, industrial production has grown for five consecutive periods, but presents a decreased growth rhythm, by changing from 4.1% in the last quarter of last year and 3.0% in the first of this year to 1.4% in the second quarter of 2010. Among the categories of use, only the change of capital goods from 4.3% in the first quarter of 2010 to 4.8% in the second marked increase between both periods. In the other segments, the production of intermediate goods (from 3.8% to 1.2%) lost rhythm, but remained with a positive result, whereas the sectors durable consumer goods (from 2.7% to -0.8%) and semi- and non-durable consumer goods (from 3.4% to -0.8%) changed the sequence of positive rates initiated last year.

In confrontations with the same periods of 2009, results remained positive and reached most of the investigated industrial segments, but with reduction in the intensity of growth against the indexes of the beginning of the year, reflecting not only the rise of the basis for comparison, but also the reduction of the productive rhythm of the last three months. With this result, the confrontation against the same quarter of the previous year showed a less intense expansion from the first (18.2%) to the second quarter of 2010 (14.3%).

The decrease of 1.0% observed in the total industry between May and June had a generalized profile of fall, reaching 20 of the 27 surveyed branches and all categories of use. Among the sectors, the main negative impact upon the overall average was created by other chemical products (-4.4%), followed by office machines and computer equipment (-11.6%), food (-1.6%), metal products (-5.2%), electronic material and communication equipment (-4.9%), pharmaceutical industry (-3.4%) and automotive vehicles (-1.1%). Among the seven activities that expanded production, petroleum refining and alcohol production (2.6%), editing and printing (2.9%) and beverages (2.6%) exerted the main positive influences.

Considering the categories of use, still in the comparison with the previous month, the most significant fall was observed in durable consumer goods (-3.2%), after they had remained practically stable in the last three months: 0.1% in March and April, and -0.1% in May. The segment capital goods, by decreasing 2.1%, also showed reduction above overall average (-1.0%) and marked the first negative result since March 2009. The sectors that produce semi- and non-durable consumer goods (-0.8%) and intermediate goods (-0.7%) also showed negative indexes, with the first sector accumulating a 3.0% loss in three months of fall, and the second interrupting a sequence of three positive rates, period when it increased 2.2%.

Quarterly moving average decreases 0.7%

With negative results in the last three months, the performance of June confirms the reduction in the rhythm of industrial activity, with the quarterly moving average decreasing (-0.7%) from May to June and interrupting the upward trend initiated 15 months ago. This signal inversion was also observed in intermediate goods (-0.1%), which also changed 15 months of positive rates. In the other categories of use, durable consumer goods (-1.1%) and semi- and non-durable consumer goods (-1.0%) recorded the most substantial falls, whereas capital goods (0.2%), the only one with positive result in June, exhibited the least impressive gain since May 2009.

In relation to the same month of 2009, industry increased 11.1%

In the comparison June 10/June 09, industrial production showed expansion of 11.1%, with the greater part (22) of the 27 sectors showing positive rates. The most relevant positive impacts on the overall average were created by automotive vehicles (22.3%) and machines and equipment (38.6%), influenced in part by growth in approximately 80% of the investigated products, with highlights being tractors and trucks, in the first branch, and carriers-transporters, freezers for industrial use, motor grades, forklift trucks and agricultural tractors, in the second. It is also worth citing the advances observed in basic metallurgy (26.5%), food products (7.9%), beverages (21.4%), metal products (23.2%) and rubber and plastic (16.5%), stimulated principally by the items special steel ingots, blocks and billets; crystallized sugar and concentrated orange juices; beer, draft beer and soft drinks; iron/steel screws, pins and nuts; and tires for trucks and buses. Among the activities that showed reduced production, those which exerted the main negative contributions to the general industry were: pharmaceutical industry (-7.5%), tobacco (-10.4%) and other equipment of transportation (-3.6%). In these branches, products with the major influence were medicines, processed tobacco and planes, respectively.

Still in the comparison with June 2009, the indexes by category of use confirmed the growth pattern observed during this year, with evident leadership of capital goods (26.8%), with a rhythm much above the industrial average (11.1%), followed by intermediate goods (12.1%), which also pointed a two-digit positive rate. The other categories grew below the average result of industry: durable consumer goods (6.8%) and semi- and non-durable consumer goods (6.2%).

In the first segment, except capital goods for electricity (-17.1%), all the groups showed positive rates, with capital goods for transportation (30.6%) marking the main influence, followed by capital goods for construction (153.8%), for mixed use (18.7%), for industrial (31.8%) and agricultural purposes (93.9%). Still above industrial average, the production of intermediate goods grew 12.1% in relation to the previous month, supported by advances in all its subsectors, with highlights being products associated to basic metallurgy (26.5%), automotive vehicles (29.3%), mining and quarrying industry (8.6%), rubber and plastic (16.8%), metal (26.1%) and food products (12.5%). It is still worth citing the positive two-digit indexes originated from typical civil construction inputs (14.7%), which marks its eighth consecutive positive result, and packages (14.4%).

With growth below industrial average, durable consumer goods (6.8%) remained positively pressed by the increased production of household appliances (20.5%), especially those of the “brown line” (59.8%), seeing that those of the “white line” decreased 1.6%. The following items had a more moderate expansion: cell phones (6.5%), automobiles (2.1%) and motorcycles (1.4%). Still in the monthly index, the sector semi- and non-durable consumer goods (6.2%) marked the less intense increase among the categories of use, but with all its subsectors showing positive rates: foods and beverages elaborated for domestic consumption (9.8%), which exerted the main influence on the sector, followed by semi-durable goods (10.2%), other non-durable goods (1.9%) and fuels (3.5%). In these groups the highlights were, respectively, beer, draft beer and concentrated orange juice; leather footwear and pants; newspapers; and alcohol.

In the analysis by quarter, we may observe that the industrial sector, by growing 14.3%, has supported positive results for three consecutive quarters, but with reduced growth rhythm in relation to the first quarter of the year (18.2%), both comparisons against the same period of the previous year. Among the categories of use, only capital goods, which changed from 25.9% in the first quarter to 33.1% in the second, did not show reduced expansion magnitude. In the other categories of use, durable consumer goods (from 28.4% to 14.0%) showed the sharpest decrease in the growth rhythm between both periods, followed by intermediate goods (from 19.7% to 15.3%) and semi- and non-durable consumer goods (from 8.9% to 6.2%).