The production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds is expected to reach 146.5 million metric tons, surpassing by 9.4% the amount obtained in 2009 (133.9 million metric tons)...

The production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds is expected to reach 146.5 million metric tons, surpassing by 9.4% the amount obtained in 2009 (133.9 million metric tons) and is 0.4% above the record of this series (2008). In 2010, Paraná must replace Mato Grosso and regain its position as the major grain producer in the country.

The fourth estimate for the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds points to output of about 146.5 million metric tons, 9.45 above the amount obtained in 2009 (133.9 million metric tons) and surpassing, for the first time, by 0.4%, the record figure of 2008 (145.9 million metric tons)¹.

Increase of 0.1% is expected in comparison with the area planted last year, reaching 47.3 million hectares. In relation to 2009, changes of -5.0%, 5.9% and 6.5%, respectively, are expected for the three main crops: rice, corn and soybeans. The production of corn and soybeans is expected to increase by 4.0% and 19.2%, respectively, whereas that of rice must decrease (-9.7%).

The regional distribution of the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds is: South, 62.2 million metric tons; Central West, 51.0 million metric tons; Southeast, 16.5 million metric tons; Northeast, 12.9 million metric tons and North, 3.9 million metric tons. In relation to the harvest last year, decrease is expected only in the Southeast Region (-4.0%). All the other regions will have increments: North, 3.2%; Northeast, 9.6%; South, 18.7%; and Central West (4.4%).

Paraná, in this evaluation for 2010, has regained its position as the major grain national producer, surpassing by 1.5 percentage points Mato Grosso which, last year, took the leadership after the harvest of Paraná was severely affected by harsh climactic conditions, as a dry period in the beginning of 2009, frosts in June and excessive rain in the final period of winter crops.

WINTER CEREALS (in grain) – Finally, in winter crops, which are mostly planted in the southern states of the country, there were increases in oats (22.8%), barley (8.4%), wheat (3.9%) and triticale (3.8%). For wheat, the most important of these crops, the expected production of 5.6 million metric tons surpasses by 3.9% that of March. It is important to mention this is a preliminary evaluation and it must be analyzed carefully, since only the states of Minas Gerais, Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul have provided data so far. On the other hand, the first evaluation of harvest in Paraná, the major national producer, with participation of 55.0% in the national production of wheat, has recorded production increase of 7.2% once climactic conditions are more satisfactory than those in 2009. The area directed to planting in this state presents decrease of 11.4% compared to figures in the previous month.

With negative change can be mentioned: 1st harvest peanuts in husk (7.9), 2nd harvest peanuts in husk (24.6%), rice in husk (9.7%), 3rd harvest potatoes (8.8%), cacao nuts (2.4%), 2^nd harvest beans (9.5%), 3^rd harvest beans in grain (1;9%), 1^st harvest corn in grain (0.8%) and sorghum in grain (4.9%).

The estimated harvest of coffee for 2010 is 2,698,361 t, or 45.0 million 60kg sacks of the product in grain, versus 40.5 million in 2009, or increase of 10.9%. The area directed to harvesting is 2,142,541 ha. The total area decresed (-0.3%), as observed in Minas Gerais, Paraná, Rio de Janeiro, Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul. The expected average yield is 1,259 kg/ha, 10.4% more than in 2009.

Agricultural Production 2010 – April/March estimate

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production of April shows changes in the amount produced of eight items: oats in grain (+22.8%), coffee in grain (+1.7), barley in grain (8.4%), total beans in grain (1.5%), total corn in grain (+1.3%), soybeans in grain (+0.8%), wheat in grain (+3.9%) and triticale in grain (+3.8%).

Coffee (in grain) – The estimate for the national harvest of coffee in grain, according to the Systematic Survey of April, is2.698.361 t, or 45.0 million sacks. In relation to March, there was increase of 1.7%. The area planted is 0.3% bigger: 2,358,747 ha. The area directed to harvest in 2010 is 2,142,541 ha, above the previous estimate (0.2%). Increases which occurred in relation to March may have resulted from figures in the state of Minas Gerais, the major national producer, where problems which occurred in previous months had to be revaluated. The production of more than 370,000 sacks in the south of Minas Gerais explains the higher figures for Brazil (+ 1.7%) in relation to the previous month.

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Beans (in grain) (total) – The national production of beans, considering the three harvests of this product, is expected to be at 3,504,313 metric tons, 1.5% less than expected according to the March estimate. Compared to the figure in March, changes in this harvest were, respectively, -4.4%; -1.1% and +11.8%. The reduction of production of 1^st harvest beans, in this April estimate, results from figures in the Northeast, where the scarcity of rain has led to reduction of estimates in Ceará (14.8%) and Bahia (23.7%). The same has occurred in the second harvest, the slight decrease of which in relation to March reflects the reevaluation of data in some Northeastern states. In Paraíba, although information still refers to the planting period, there was decrease (-18.0%). In terms of 3^rd harvest beans, the increase of production resulted from the first evaluation in Minas Gerais, which had only one projection before. The output expected for Minas, in this evaluation, points to increase of 37.2% in relation to March.

Corn (in grain) total – The national production of corn in grain in 2010, for both harvests, amounts to 53.3 million metric tons and shows, in this month, positive change of 1.3% since March. In relation to 1^st harvest corn, production is expected to 33.8 million metric tons, 1.0% above the previous estimate. This slight increase in production is mainly due to the higher figures in Santa Catarina (11.8%) and Rio Grande do Sul (4.7%) which, due to favorable climactic conditions, reevaluated their figures for yield. In the Northeast, on the other hand, the lack of rain has caused significant decreases in the estimates of Ceará (24.2%) and Paraíba (41.0%).

The regional participation for this 1st harvest is distributed as follows: South (47.1%), Southeast (26.9%), Northeast (12.6%), Central West (9.6%) and North (3.8%). With reference to 2^nd harvest corn, production is expected to reach 19.5 million metric tons, 1.9% above the data last month, due to information from last month and the reevaluation of average income by 3.4%, considering the area to be harvested faces decrease of 1.5%. Mato Grosso do Sul was the main country accounting for the gain observed this month due to favorable climactic conditions and a bigger use of technology, which led to increase of 24.7% in the average yield of crops, which reached  3,600 kg/ha versus 2,887 kg/ha informed in March.

Soybeans in grain – For 2010, the expected production of soybeans (67.9 million metric tons) is 0.8% higher than in March. Increase has occurred due to a positive reevaluation in the states of Santa Catarina and Mato Grosso do Sul, with good climactic conditions in the main producing centers. It is important to highlight that, in Mato Grosso do Sul, with the end of harvests, the average yield obtained surpassed by 4.2% the old record of 2,926 kg/ha which had been in effect since 2001.

In the April estimate, 15 of the 24 products investigated had increase in relation to 2009

Among the twenty-four products selected, fifteen presented positive increase in terms of production estimate versus the previous year: herbaceous seed cotton (6.5%), oats in grain (9.2%), 1st harvest potatoes (3.2%), 2^nd harvest potatoes (10.3%), coffee in grain (10.9%), onions (1.4%), barley in gain (21.3%), 1^st harvest beans in grain (7.6%), oranges (3.0%), castor beans in segment (32.5%), cassava (4.9%), 2^nd harvest corn in grain (13.5%), soybeans in grain (19.2%), wheat in grain (13.1%) and triticale in grain (13.2%).

¹ Due to the needs of users of crop data, surveys relative to Cereal, legumes and oilseeds have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency of the Ministry of Agriculture (Conab), a subdivision of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA) as a sequence to a process of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops, which started in October 2007.