The national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds is expected to be 143.4 million metric tons in 2010, 7.2% above the amount reached in 2009 (133.8 million metric tons) and 1.9% above the 3^rd estimate, of December (140.7 million metric tons). This is the first estimate of the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA), in its January edition. The area to be harvested, of 48.1 million hectares, presents increase of 2.1% in relation to 2009, which was 47.2 million hectares.

The harvest expected for 2010 has the following regional distribution: South Region, 59.4 million metric tons (+13.3%); Central West, 49.8 million metric tons (+2.1%); Southeast Region, 16.5 million metric tons (+2.1%); Northeast Region, 13.9 million metric tons (+19.3 %) and North Region, 3.9 million metric tons (+1.7%). In the first evaluation for 2010, Paraná recovers its position as the main national producer of grains, surpassing Mato Grosso by 0.6 percentage points.

Estimates for six products stand out

In the January edition of LSPA, the estimates for six products were the main highlights: herbaceous cotton (seed), rice in husk, coffee (grain), 1^st-harvest beans (grain) and soybeans (grain).

Herbaceous cotton (seed)

The first output estimate of herbaceous cotton for 2010 is 3.0 million metric tons, with increase of 2.1% over the 2.9 million metric tons obtained in 2009. Although there has been decrease of 1.0% in planted area, as a result of the lack of encouragement to producers due to high production costs, financing restraints and low price of plume, production is expected to have a yield 2.8% above that of 2009.

Rice (in husk)

The expected production of rice is 12.0 million metric tons, 5.2% more than the amount registered in 2009. This scenario was once observed, in the first prognosis in the end of 2009. Rio Grande do Sul, the main producer (with 60.8% of national production, presents decrease of 8.1% in the expected production and of 2.9% in the area, due to the excess of rain which led to delay of sowing, caused the total loss of areas with soaked crops at the central depression of the state, besides lower incidence of light. All these factors accounted, together, for the estimate of fall of the average yield by 5.4%, compared to 2009.

Coffee (grain)

The estimate for January is 2,805,821 t, or 46.8 million 60kg- sacks of benefited grains, 15.3% more than in 2009. The area directed to harvesting is 2,142,549 ha, only 0.2% above that of last year. The total area occupied with crops in the country has decreased 1.0%, as observed in Minas Gerais, Rondônia, Bahia, Paraná and Rio de Janeiro. He expected average yield is 1,310 kg/ha, 15.0% more than in 2009. The expected production increase, in relation to the amount harvested in 2009, is a consequence of a specific feature of Arabic coffee, a predominant species in Brazil (70%): this type of coffee has alternate years of high and low productivity.

1^st harvest beans (grain)

For 1^st harvest beans, the expected output is about 2.0 million metric tons, 23.1% more than in 2009 (1.6 million metric tons).  The area already planted or to be planted is 2.4 million hectares, 0.5% below that of   2009. As observed in this new estimate, there is little reduction of area, considering that prices, at the occasion of sowing for this harvest, were not very high.

1^st harvest corn (grain)

The estimate output for 1st harvest corn is 33.4 million metric tons, 1.3% below that figure reached in 2009. The change is a result of the 9.7% decrease in the total area planted. In Paraná, the major national producer (with 18.8% of participation), reduction of planted area was 30.1%.

Soybeans (grain)

The expected output of 66.1 million metric tons of soybeans in 2010 presents positive change of 16.0%, compared to the amount obtained in 2009. The area to be harvested presents increase of 6.0%, and the expected average yield, of 9.4% (with 23.0 million hectares and 2.871 kg/ha, respectively) Crops used areas which were once directed to milk planting, and, to a lower extent, cotton and rice, due to the better prices and liquidity of this product. In No Mato Grosso, the major national producer (with 28.7% of the total), climate conditions are very favorable, and, until the moment the excess of rain has not affected harvesting, which has been in progress since the end of December.

Compared to the output of 2009, January estimate is bigger for 14 products

Among the 25 selected products, 14 present positive change in the production estimate in relation to 2009: castor beans in bagasse (+83.2%), 1^st harvest beans (grain) (+23.1%), soybeans in grain (+16.0%), coffee (grain) (+15.3%), barley (grain) (+11.8%), onions (+10.5%), triticale (grain) (+9.9%), wheat (grain)  (+9.4%), 2^nd harvest corn (grain) (+4.8%), cassava (+3.4%), oranges (+3.0%), herbaceous cotton (seed) (+2.1%), 1^st harvest potatoes (+1.0%) and sugarcane (+0.8%). The 11 items with negative changes were: 2^nd harvest peanuts in husk (-27.7%), 3rd- harvest beans (grain) (-14.1%), 1sts harvest peanuts in husk (-10.8%), oats (grain) (-10.0%), 3^rd harvest potatoes (-6.1%), rice in husk (-5.2%), cacao nuts (-4.3%), sorghum (grain) (-3.1%), 2^nd harvest beans (grain) (-1.5%), 1^st harvest corn (grain) (-1.3%) and 2^nd harvest potatoes (0.0%).

For second and third harvest of some items and for winter crops (wheat, oats, rye and barley), there has not been evaluation of production, and the data presented correspond to projections obtained from data of previous years. 

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¹ Cotton seed, peanuts, Rice, beans, castor beans, corn, soybeans, oats, rye, barley, sunflower seeds, sorghum, wheat and triticale.

² Due to the needs of users of crop data, surveys relative to Cereal, legumes and oilseeds have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency of the Ministry of Agriculture (Conab), a subdivision of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA) as a sequence to a process of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops, which started in October 2007.