For the 2010 harvest, estimated production is 140.4 million tons, 4.7% larger than that obtained in 2009, and the estimated area to be harvested is 48.1 million hectares, 2.0% larger than this year

The 11^th estimate for the harvest of grains, legumes and oilseeds represents the second largest national harvest. A production of 134.1 million tons¹ is expected, 8.1% inferior to the record harvest of 2008 (146.0 million tons) and just 11,058 tons inferior to the estimate of October. The decrease in relation to last month is due especially to corn 2^nd harvest, which presented an average yield decrease in Goiás as a consequence of a reassessment of information in that state, despite small positive changes observed in Bahia and the Federal District.

IBGE also conducted, in November, the second prognosis of area and production for the 2010 harvest, in the Southeast, South and Central West regions, and in the states of Rondônia, Maranhão, Piauí and Bahia. The production of grains, legumes and oilseeds for 2010 is estimated in 140.4 million tons, 4.7% bigger than that obtained in 2009, whereas the 48.1-million-hectare area to be harvested would increase by 2.0%.

In 2009, the 47.2-million-hectare area to be harvested, compared to the one obtained in 2008, and the estimate of the previous month presented variations of -0.2% and -0.0% (reduction of just 3,922 ha in relation to data from October), respectively. The three major crops, soybean, corn and rice, which account for 81.4% of the planted area, present, in relation to the previous year, a variation of +2.2%, -4.7% and +0.8%, respectively. As regards production of those three products, only rice records a positive variation of 4.2%. Soybean and corn presented decreased production of 4.8% and 13.5%, respectively.

This expected production volume of grain, legumes and oilseeds for 2009, in relation to the previous year, presents the following distribution and variation: South region, 52.7 million tons (-14.1%); Central West, 48.8 million tons (-3.9%); Southeast, 17.2 million tons (-2.4%); Northeast, 11.7 million tons (-6.2%) and North, 3.8 million tons (-0.1%).

Mato Grosso, in 2009, becomes the leading national producer of grains, surpassing Paraná by 2.9 percentage points. Paraná was greatly affected by severe weather conditions, such as drought in the beginning of the year, frost in the middle of the year and now hard rains in this final period of the winter crop cycle.

Estimate of November 2009 in comparison to the 2008 harvest

Among the 25 selected products, 10 presented positive variation in the estimated production compared to the previous year: peanuts in husk 2^nd harvest (19.7%), rice in husk (4.2%), oats in grain (19.2%), potatoes 3^rd harvest (4.6%), cacao nuts (1.9%), sugarcane (7.0%), onions (4.0%), barley in grain (1.2%), beans in grain 1^st harvest (0.6%) and beans in grain 2^nd harvest (4.0%).

With negative variation: herbaceous cotton seed (-25.9%), peanuts in husk 1^st harvest (-3.4%), potatoes 1^st harvest (-7.9%), potatoes 2^nd harvest (-11.0%), coffee in grain (-13.4%), beans in grain 3^rd harvest (-2.8%), orange (-0.2%), castor beans in segment (-26.8%), cassava (-0.4%), corn in grain 1^st harvest (-15.4%), corn in grain 2^nd harvest (-9.7%), soybeans in grain (-4.8%), sorghum in grain (-5.2%), wheat in grain (-13.4%) and triticale in grain (-8.9%).

Perspectives of the second estimate for the 2010 harvest

In the second prognosis of this year, the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds for 2010 is estimated in 140.4 million tons, 4.7% bigger than the obtained in 2009, whereas the area to be harvested of 48.1 million hectares also increases by 2.0%. It is worth highlighting that the information of the prognostic survey represent 73.4% of the estimated national production, whereas projections account for 26.6% of total value.

Among the 10 surveyed products, six present positive variation in relation to 2009: potatoes 1^st harvest (0.7%), onions (7.7%), beans in grain 1^st harvest (18.6%), tobacco in leaf (4.8%), cassava (5.0%) and soybeans in grain (13.8%). With negative variation: herbaceous cotton seed (-1.6%), peanuts in husk 1^st harvest (-9.1%), rice in husk (-4.2%) and corn in grain 1^st harvest (-3.4%).

Regarding the area to be harvested, the following products record positive variation: onions (3.0%), beans in grain 1^st harvest (3.6%), tobacco in leaf (2.0%), cassava (3.8%) and soybeans in grain (5.4%). With negative variation: herbaceous cotton seed (-5.5%), peanuts in husk 1^st harvest (-2.7%), rice in husk (-1.4%), potatoes 1^st harvest (-1.5%) and corn 1^st harvest (-5.8%).

COTTON SEED – The second production estimate of cotton seed is of the order of 2,897,923 tons, against the 2,943,816 tons obtained in 2009, indicating a reduction of 1.6%. This production decrease is basically due to the restricted cultivated area, as a consequence of the discouragement of producers to cultivate the product because of high production costs, difficult financing achievement, and low prices both in domestic and external markets. All main states record a declining cultivation in relation to the harvest of 2009, being that Mato Grosso (main producer), which participates with 46.6% of national production, reduced the area to be harvested by 4.3% and the expected production by 4.7%. Besides, the second estimate, compared to the first one, recorded an expansion of 10.6%, softening the downward trend.

RICE – In the case of rice, in this second national assessment for 2010, the expected production of 12.1 million tons is 4.2% inferior to the obtained in 2009. This decrease is due to Rio Grande do Sul, main producer with 60.9% of participation in national production, which kept the decrease of 7.1% in the expected production and 1.8% in the area. Mato Grosso, main producer of this cereal in the Central West region, reports a decrease in the cultivated area (7.3%), since producers prefer to cultivate soy, which is more liquid. On the other hand, the area for rice has been decreasing with time, in this state, because of the decreased deforestation and of the closer inspection by environmental agencies.

BEANS – The second estimate for the national harvest of “water” beans in 2010 shows an expected production of 2.0 million tons, surpassing by 18.6% the production of 2009, when a volume of 1.6 million tons was harvested. This fact reflects the expectations of a better average yield compared to last year, when the crop was at a loss due to weather problems. The area to be planted, in comparison to last year’s, despite the low prices of the product, decreased by just 0.2%.

CORN 1^st HARVEST – For corn 1^st harvest, a production of 32.7 million tons is expected, 3.4% inferior to the observed in 2009, because of the reduced total planted area (9.0%). As already reported in the first estimate, the unfavorable figures for this harvest result from the low prices of the product in relation to the stocked volume and the not fulfilled expected exports. Lower prices compared to soy made producers choose the legume, which is more liquid.

SOYBEANS – As regards soybeans, in this second assessment for 2010, the expected production of 64.9 million tons indicates a positive variation of 13.8%, compared to the volume obtained in 2009. The area to be harvested shows an increase of 5.4%, whereas the expected average yield presents an increase of 8.0%, being respectively 22.9 million hectares and 2,833 kg/ha. The enlargement of the cultivated area happens principally in areas previously dedicated to corn, cotton and rice. This is a reflex of higher prices and liquidity of soy. Regarding yield, producers expect a more favorable weather for this harvest, without the draught of the last harvest. Also in Mato Grosso, major national producer, weather conditions, up to now, are quite favorable to agriculture. In that state, planting began earlier than expected, and the first harvests will begin at the end of December.

Soy, corn, rice and wheat had the largest stocks on June 30 2009

The largest stocks on June 30, 2009 were those of soy in grain (13,822,653 t), corn in grain (11,017,491 t), rice in husk (4,813,296 t) and wheat in grain (3,601,901 t). When compared to the stocks of the main products with those of June 30, 2008, the stocks of wheat, corn and rice presented positive variations of 97.5%, 34.1% and 4.1%, respectively, whereas the stock of soy presented a decrease of 38.8%.

In the first semester of 2009, the storing net of agricultural products in operation in the country presented a decrease of 0.7% in the number of active establishments, in comparison to the second semester of 2008. At the end of the first semester of 2009, this net counted on 8,875 active establishments, of which 43.0% were in the South region, 23.0% in the Southeast, 22.2% in the Central West, 8.4% in the Northeast and 3.4% in the North.

As to the capacity of the storing units, the conventional, structural and inflated warehouses accounted for 76,939,196 cubic meters. Of this total, a little more than 70% was concentrated in the Southeast and South regions. The storing units like bulk stores had 53,078,128 tons of capacity, the Central West region with 49.6% of this capacity and the South, 33.4%. The silos for grains presented 45,437,131 tons of total capacity in the country, the South region with 55.3% of this total and the Central West and Southeast regions with 263% and 13.5%, respectively

Utilization of grains – Base don the survey Municipal Agricultural Production 2008 and the Survey of Stocks 2008, IBGE made the table of supply and utilization of the main grain cultivated in the country. Information indicates availability of products for consumption, stocks and a view of external trade.

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¹ Due to the needs of users of crop data, surveys relative to Cereal, legumes and oilseeds have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency of the Ministry of Agriculture (Conab), a subdivision of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA) as a sequence to a process of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops, which started in October 2007.