In October IBGE made the first prognosis of area and production for the 2010 harvest, in the Southeast, South and Central West regions and in the states of Maranhão, Piauí and Bahia. The production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds¹ for 2010 is estimated in 139.3 million tons², 3.8% bigger than that obtained in 2009. For estimates of national production in 2010, the values surveyed in the regions and states where the investigation was conducted were added to projections obtained from information of previous years for the Federation Units, which still do not have the first estimates because of the agriculture calendar. Information from the prognostic survey represents 68.7% of the foreseen national production, whereas the projections account for 31.3% of total value.

Estimate shows increase of 1.6% in the area t be harvested in 2010

The initial evaluation of the area to be harvested in 2010 is 47.9 million hectares, 1.6% above the area harvested in 2009, that is, 47.2 million hectares. In absolute figures, this increment amounts to 700 thousand hectares. Among the 10 products surveyed, five had positive change in relation to production in 2009: 1^st harvest beans (grain) (13.9%), soybeans (grain) (11.8%), onions (grain) (7.3%), tobacco in leaf (4.0%) and cassava (3.2%). There were negative changes in: 1^st harvest peanuts (in husk) (-8.5%), herbaceous cotton (seed) (-8.1%), rice (in husk) (-5.1%), 1^st harvest corn (grain) (-2.2%) and 1^st harvest potatoes (-0.7%).

In terms of the area to be harvested, there were positive changes in: soybeans (grain) (4.5%), onions (2.8%), tobacco in leaf (1.5%), cassava (1.2%) and 1^st harvest beans (0.9%). With negative changes, there were: herbaceous cotton (seed) (-8.0%), 1^st harvest corn (-4.4%), 1^st harvest peanuts (in husk) (-3.7%), 1^st harvest potatoes (-2.5%) and rice (in husk) (-1.2%).

Cotton (seed)

The first estimate of cotton (seed) production is 2.7 million metric tons, with decrease of 8.1% in relation to the 2.9 million metric tons obtained in 2009. The decrease occurred due to the decrease of harvested area, as a consequence of the lack of interest by producers due to high production costs and the low price of the item in national and foreign markets. The main Federative Units present decrease; Mato Grosso, the main national producer (with 44.8% of the national production), has faced decrease by 13.5% in the area to be harvested and by 14.3% in the expected production.  

Rice (in husk)

The expected production of rice is 11.9 million metric tons, 5.1% less than in 2009. The decrease has occurred mainly due to the performance of Rio Grande do Sul, the main producer (with 1.4% of the national output), which points to decrease of 7.1% in the expected production and of 1.8% in the area. Mato Grosso, the main producer in the Central West, presents decrease of 12.2% in planted area, as a results of the preference by soybean producers (since this product is more easily traded) as well as of the reduction of deforestation and a more serious surveillance by environmental institutes.

Beans (in grain) – 1st harvest

The first estimate for the national harvest of beans in 2010 is 1.9 million metric tons, 13.9% more than the amount produced in 2009 (1.6 million metric tons). This fact reflects the prospect of obtaining higher average yield than in the previous harvest, when the crop was damaged due to climactic problems. The low prices observed in the beginning of this harvest brought hardships to producers, since the estimated planted area was 2.8% smaller.

Corn (in grain) – 1st harvest

For 1st harvest corn, the expected production is 33.1 million metric tons, 2.2% less than in 2009, with retraction of 7.6% in planted area, due to the high production costs and to the low price of this product, as a result of the volume stored (reduction of exports). The price of soybeans has caused producers to engage in producing a legume which can be more easily traded.

Soybeans (grain)

The initial estimate of soybeans production for 2010 is 63.7 million metric tons, with positive change of 11.8% in relation to the volume obtained in 2009. Harvested area is expected to be 4.5% bigger (22.7 million hectares), and the expected yield presents increase of 6.9% (2,806 kg/ha). The increase of harvested area is a result of areas not planted with corn and the change of cotton and rice areas into soybean ones, due to the easier commercialization of the latter. Producers also expect a more favorable climate, without the occurrence of a dry period, differently from what took place in the previous harvest.

Agricultural output in 2009 will be 8.1% lower than in 2008

In October, the estimate for the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds in 2009 points to production of 134.1 million metric tons, that is, 8.1% less than in 2008 (a record of 146.0 million metric tons) and only 8,500 metric tons below the September estimate. Such decrease is mainly due to wheat, with decline of average yield in Santa Catarina and Paraná, as a consequence of bad climactic conditions.

The three main crops, soybeans, corn and rice, which account for 81.4 % of the area planted present changes of +2.2%, -4.6% and +1.0%, respectively, in relation to 2008. As for the production of these three items, only rice had positive change (+4.2%). In terms of soybeans and corn, the estimated figures are -4.8% and -13.3%, respectively.

The area to be harvested – 47.2 million metric tons, compared to that harvested in 2008 and to the estimate of the previous month for the harvest in 2009, presents decrease of -0.2% in relation to 2008 and no change (only -2,337 ha) compared to the previous month (September).

The expected harvest for 2009 is distributed as follows: South Region, 52.6 million metric tons (-14.3%); Central West, 48.9 million metric tons (-3.8%); Southeast, 17.2 million metric tons (-2.4%); Northeast, 11.7 million metric tons (-6.0%) and North, 3.8 million metric tons (+0.3%). The figure below shows that Mato Grosso surpasses Paraná by 2.8 percentage points, reaching, this year, the position of major national grain producer.

In October, changes in the estimates of five products

The October edition of LSPA highlights the estimate changes, compared to September, of five products: beans (grain) – 3rd harvest (+9.9%), oats in grain (+3.6%), barley (grain) (+2.4%), sorghum (grain) (+1.1%) and wheat (-4.8%).

Total beans (grain)

The national production of beans, considering the three harvests of this product, is expected to be 3,513,420 metric tons (+1.0%) and is distributed as follows: 1,652,240 metric tons in the 1^st harvest (47.0 %), 1,457,716 metric tons in the 2^nd harvest (41.5%) and 403,464 metric tons in the 3^rd harvest (11.5%). Compared to the September LSPA it presents changes in the three harvests, by respectively, -0.1%, -0.1% and +9.9%.

The decreases in the 1st and 2nd harvests reflect small adjustments in the final figures of these harvests. The positive change of the 3rd harvest is a consequence of 31.6% of increase of production in Minas Gerais – as a consequence of the inclusion of new planting areas to the existing estimates.

Sorghum (grain)

Sorghum presents increase of +1.1% in production, which is estimated as 1,869,419 metric tons. This increase is due to new evaluations in the Southeast, mainly due to the estimate of planted area (+2.9%) and average yield (+7.9%) in Minas Gerais, which had production increase of 11%.

Winter crops (grain)

For winter crops, concentrated in the South of the country, there is estimated increase of oats (+3.6%) and barley (+2.4%) production, besides the decrease of wheat (-4. 8%). The expected production is 5.0 million metric tons and wheat is the main crop in the period. The decrease is due to new evaluations in the state of Paraná, the major national producer (52.6% of the national production), and in Santa Catarina, where, due to adverse climactic changes, yield figures have been evaluated as -5.3% and -13.5%, respectively.

Compared to results in 2008, 15 products have lower estimates

Among the 25 products selected, 15 had negative change: herbaceous seed cotton (-25.9%), peanuts in husk – 1st harvest (-3.7%), potatoes- 1st harvest (-7.9%), potatoes – 2nd harvest (-11.0%), coffee (grain) (-13.8%), beans (grain) – 3rd harvest (-3.6%), oranges (-0.1%), castor beans in segment (-24.7%), cassava (-0.3%), corn (grain) – 1^st harvest (-15.3%), corn (grain) – 2^nd harvest (-9.2%), soybeans (grain) (-4.8%), sorghum (grain) (-4.9%), wheat (rain)(-15,1%) and triticale (grain) (-8.6%).

The 10 items with positive change are: peanuts (grain) – 2nd harvest (+19.7%), oats (grain) (19.2%), sugarcane (+6.9%), rice in husk (+4.2%), beans (grain) – 2nd harvest (+4.2%), potatoes – 3^rd harvest, (+4.1%), onions (+4.0%), cacao nuts (+2.2%), barley 9grain) (+1.2%) and black beans – 1^st harvest (+0.6%).

Increases of rice (+4.2%) and sugarcane (+6.9%) are a consequence of the existence of new markets. The increment of rice production took place, mainly due to the recovery of crops in Rio Grande do Sul. There was expansion of planted area and of average yield, as a consequence of the good climactic conditions found during the cycle of crop development.

Concerning sugarcane, expansion has increased in the last five years, aiming at the production of alternative fuel, as a result of the high prices charged for petroleum. The international crisis since the middle of the second semester of 2008 has caused decrease, not observing in the current year the high levels of increase, and resulting in the halting of installations of new plants in the main production centers.

Cotton, also affected by the credit crisis and by the low prices charged, faced decrease of planted area by 23.0%, which, together with the uneven geographic occurrence of rainfall also led to reduction of average yield, by 37%.

The two major summer crops, corn and soybeans, faced reduction of 13.3% and 4.8%, respectively. Concerning corn, the decrease may be a consequence of the big amounts stored at national level in the end of 2008, and also of the low prices charged at the time of planting and of uncertainties about the future demand for this product. Concerning soybeans, although the planted area has increased 2.2%, harsh climactic conditions, especially the dry period, led to decrease of 6.9% in the average yield of crops, which changed from the 2,817 kg/ha reached in the 2008 harvest to the 2,624 kg/ha of the present estimate.

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¹ Cotton seed, peanuts, rice, beans, castor beans, corn, soybeans, oats, rye, barley, sunflower, sorghum, wheat and triticale.

² Due to the needs of users of crop data, surveys relative to Cereal, legumes and oilseeds have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency of the Ministry of Agriculture (Conab), a subdivision of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA) as a sequence to a process of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops, which started in October 2007.