The national harvest of cereals, legumes, and oilseeds is expected to reach 133.5 million tons in 2009...

The national harvest of cereals, legumes, and oilseeds is expected to reach 133.5 million tons in 2009, 8.6% poorer than the obtained in 2008 (146.9 million tons¹) and 0.7% below the estimated in July (134.4 million tons). That is what shows the eighth estimate of the Systematic Survey of Agriculture Production (LSPA), of August. The reduction, in view of last month, is mainly due to negative reevaluations of the second harvest of corn in Mato Grosso do Sul and Goiás, and to the estimates of winter crops, notably wheat in Paraná.

The three main crops, soybeans, corn, and rice, which account for 81.4% of the planted area, changed by +2.0%, -4.8%, and +0.7%, respectively, in comparison to 2008. As to the production of those three items, only rice had positive change (+4.0%). Considering soybean and corn production, there is estimated decrease of -5.2% and -15.1%, respectively.

The harvested area of 47.1 million hectares decreased in relation both to 2008 and the previous month (July), of -0.4% and -0.2%, respectively.

The expected harvest in 2009 has the following regional distribution: South Region, 53.4 million tons (-13.0%); Central West, 47.7 million tons (-6.1%); Southeast, 17.0 million tons (-3.6%); Northeast, 11.7 million tons (-6.3%); and North, 3.7 million tons (-1.9%). Mato Grosso surpassed Paraná in 17 percentage points, reaching the position of major national grain producer this year.

Changes in August estimates in relation to July

The Systematic Survey of Agriculture Production (LSPA) of August, in the comparison with July, highlights estimate changes of six products: sugarcane (+1.4%), barley in grain (-2.1%), second harvest of beans in grain (-4.2%), wheat in grain (-3.4%), and triticale in grain (-2.6%).

Sugarcane

The estimate for the production of sugarcane amounts to 696.4 million tons (+1.4%), with enlargement of 0.4% in the area to be harvested. The expansion is effect of production in the states of Goiás, Paraná, and Minas Gerais, with respective positive reassessments of +13.0%, +5.2%, and +2.9%. In Goiás, where greater variation was verified, although the area to be harvested had decreased by 2.1%, there was, in view of a better use of technological resources employed in the crops, a review of +15.5% on the mean estimate income, which changed from 83.387 kg/ha to 96.278 kg/ha in the August survey.

Total beans (in grain)

National bean production, considering the three harvests of the product, shall amount 3.518.728 tons (-2.6%) and is distributed as follows: 1.688.038 tons of the first harvest (48.0%), 1.466.957 tons of the second harvest (42.0%), and 363.733 tons of the third harvest (10.0%). The comparison with LSPA of July shows variations in the three harvests, respectively of -1.2%, -4.2%, and -2.6%.

A greater negative variation of the second harvest is effect of the damage suffered by cultivation in the Northeast, especially Paraíba (-52.0%) and Alagoas (-12.7%), due to the excess of rain during the whole crop cycle.

Corn (in grain)

The production, to both harvests, shall amount 50.0 million tons (-1.1%). The first harvest, estimated in 33.8 million tons, is lower by -0.4% than the estimated in July. The estimates for the second harvest, of 16.3 million tons, presents reduction of -2.4%, due to the absolute decreases in Goiás (226.040 t) and Mato Grosso do Sul (143.901 t), principally because the decrease in mean income.

Winter cereal (in grain)

For winter crops, concentrated in the South of the country, estimates are production decrease in barley (-2.1%), wheat (-3.4%), and triticale (-2.6%). A production of 5.7 million tons is expected, with decrease of -3.4%, due to new assessments in Paraná, biggest producer (56.0%). In that state, decrease of -8.3% in income was determined by excess of rain, with the outbreak of diseases like blast and head blight.

Estimates of August 2009 in relation to the 2008 harvest are lower for 23 products

Among the 41 selected products, 23 presented negative change: sunflower in grain (-26.2%), herbaceous cotton seed (-25.7%), castor beans in segment (-23.4%), first harvest of corn in grain (-15.5%), second harvest of corn in grain (-14.3%), coffee in grain (-13.6%), third harvest of beans in grain (-13.1%), second harvest potatoes (-11.7%), sorghum in grain (-8.7%), first harvest of potatoes (-7.8%), garlic (-7.0%), grapes (-6.4%), triticale in grain (-5.9%), soybeans in grain (-5.2%), pineapple (-5.9%), first harvest of peanuts (-3.7%), wheat in grain (-3.7%), rye in grain (-2.3%), tobacco in leaf (-2.1%), black pepper (-1.3%), barley in grain (-1.0%), third harvest of potatoes (-0.7%), and coconut (-0.2%).

The 18 products with positive variation are: oat in grain (20.3%), cashew nuts (17.2%), second harvest of peanuts (14.0%), jute fiber (9.8%), apples (8.8%), sugarcane (7.3%), tomatoes (5.3%), onions (4.9%), second harvest of beans in grain (4.8%), rice in husk (4.0%), first harvest of beans in grain (2.8%), bananas (2.2%), cacao nuts (2.2%), oranges (0.8%), sisal fiber (0.7%), Malva fiber (0.8%), Guarana (0.5%), and cassava (0.3%).

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¹ Meeting demands from users of harvest information, the surveys of cereal, legumes, and oilseeds now published were conducted in close collaboration with National Supply Agency of the Ministry of Agriculture (Conab), proceeding with a process of harmonization of official harvest estimates, initiated in October 2007, for the main Brazilian crops.