In the comparison between the first quarter of 2009 and the last quarter of 2008 compared to the first quarter of, in the seasonally adjusted series, the biggest decrease occurred in industry (-3.1%), followed by agriculture (-0.5%), whereas services grew by 0.8%.

In relation to the first quarter of 2008, GDP decreased by 1.8%. The value added at basic prices fell 1.5% and excise tax decreased 3.3%.

Considering the rate accumulated in the four quarters which ended in March, the increase of GDP was 3.1% compared to the figure concerning the immediately previous four quarters. 

The Gross Domestic Product at market prices reached R$ 684.6 billion in the first quarter this year, being R$ 584.6 billion relative to value added at market prices and R$ 100.0 billion relative to excise tax.

In relation to the components of internal demand, household consumption expenditure increased by 0.7% in the first quarter this year, compared to the fourth quarter of 2008, after negative change of 1.8% in the previous quarter. General government consumption expenditure changed by 0.6%. The gross formation of fixed capital (FBCF, the same as investments) fell by 12.6% in the first quarter of 2009, the biggest decrease since the beginning of the series on this comparison basis (1996).

In terms of external demand, both the exports of goods and services (-16.0%) and the imports of goods and services (-16,8%) fell in relation to the last quarter of 2008.

Compared to the first quarter of 2008, only services had a negative performance

GDP fell by 1.8% in the first quarter of 2009, compared to the same period in 2008. The value added at basic prices fell by 1.5%; and excise tax, by 3.3%, the latter mainly due to the decrease of industry, especially of the manufacturing segment, and to the decrease of imports. .

In relation to value added, services had the best performance, with increase of 1.7% compared to the figure in the first quarter of 2008. The value added of industry fell 9.3%, whereas the figure relative to agriculture faced reduction by 1.6%.

The rate of agriculture may be, to a great extent, seen a result of the performance of some products with good harvests in the first quarter. Except for rice, which had estimated annual increase of 6.2% of the amount produced, all the other had negative performances in terms of production estimate in 2009, compared to previous year results. Good examples, in this case, are cotton (-19.7%), corn (-13.2%), soybeans (-3.9%) and tobacco (-1.2%).

In industry, all the subsectors presented negative rates. The main decrease came from manufacturing industry (-12.6%), the most significant in the series (since 1996) on this comparison basis; this result was mainly affected by the production decrease of machinery and equipment, metallurgy, automotive vehicles, furniture, apparel and footwear. There was also decline of value added of construction by 9.8%, followed by electricity and gas, water and sewage services and urban sanitation  (-4.2%) and mining and quarrying industry (-1.1%). In this last subsector, although the extraction of iron ore fell by 38.1% in the first quarter, the extraction of petroleum and natural gas increased 6.5%.

Among services, there were the following changes: other services (7.0%), financial mediation and insurance  (5.8%); information services (5.4%), general government, public health and education (3.1%) and real estate and rents (1.6%). The services classified as other services, besides those rendered to enterprises, are services rendered to families, health and trade education, lodging and feeding services and, associate, domestic and maintenance and repair services. The expansion of information services is due, mainly, to the performances of mobile telephony and computer-related services. Trade (wholesale and retail) had negative rate of 6.0%, and services of transportation, storage and mailing, faced decrease of -5.6%, being affected by the result of industry. 

Consumption expenditure of households and general government increase and the opposite happens to gross formation of fixed capital

Among the components of internal demand, the consumption expenditure of households reached positive rate of 1.3%, the 22nd consecutive rise in this type of comparison, but there was deceleration in relation to the fourth quarter of 2008 (2.2%). One of the factors accounting for this result was the behavior of salary volume which, after increasing 7.6% in the fourth quarter of 2008, increasing at a lower rate (5.2%) in the first quarter of 2009. Besides, there was less increase, in nominal terms, of the balance of credit operations of the financial system with free resources for natural persons (from 25.8% in the fourth quarter of 2008 to 22.1% in the first quarter of 2009).

The consumption expenditure of general government changed by 2.7% compared to the first quarter of 2008, whereas gross formation of fixed capital (FBCF) faced decrease of 14.0%, which may have resulted from the reduction in production of machinery and equipment. The negative change in construction also affected the performance of FBCF. Besides, the average Selic (Special System for Settlement and Custody) interest rate in the first quarter of 2009 (12.5% per year) surpassed that of the first quarter of 2008 (11.2% per year).

In terms of external demand, exports of goods and services fell 15.5% in relation to the first quarter of 2008. Imports of goods and services also faced reduction, of about 16.0%, the first decrease since the third quarter of 2003 (-5.3%). The exported products which most contributed to this result were electronic material, electric material, other refining products, pieces and accessories for vehicles and several chemical products in general.

In terms of the index accumulated in four quarters, all the sectors had positive results

The graph below presents increase rates accumulated in the last four quarters for GDP, after the first quarter of 1996. After the second quarter of 2006, when the rate reached 3.0%, there was acceleration, and the rate was 5.7% in the fourth quarter of 2007 and 6.3% in the third quarter of 2008, falling to 3.1% in the first quarter of 2009. This last rate resulted from the rise of 2.9% of value added at basic prices and of the rise of 4.3% of excise tax.

In this type of comparison, the three economy sectors had positive performance: agriculture (4.3%), services (3.9%) and industry (0.4%). Among the subsectors of industry, the highlight is construction (3.4%), followed by mining and quarrying industry (3.1%) and  electricity and gas, water and sewage services and urban sanitation  (2.1%). On the other hand, manufacturing industry faced decrease of 1.5%.

The biggest increases in services occurred in information services (8.2%); financial mediation and insurance  (7.3%); and other services (5.4%). There was also rise in general government, public health and education (2.7%); trade (2.6%); real estate services and rents (2.5%) and, to a lower extent,  transportation, storage and mailing (0.8%).

In the analysis of demand, household consumption expenditure increased by 4.1% as a result of the increase of salary volume and of the bigger supply of credit to natural persons. Gross formation of fixed capital changed by 6.3% (the 20th consecutive increase in this type of comparison); general government consumption expenditure had positive rate of 4.7%. Exports decreased 3.5% and imports, by 9.6%.

At current values, GDP of Q1 2009 is R$ 684.6 billion

GDP at market prices

reached, in the first quarter of 2009, R$ 684.6 billion, being R$ 584.6 billion relative to value added at basic prices and R$ 100.0 billion to excise tax. 

Agriculture had R$ 41.2 billion; industry, R$ 142.8 billion; and services, R$ 400.6 billion. Among the components of demand, household consumption expenditure amounted to R$ 444.0 billion; general government consumption expenditure, to R$ 153.3 billion; and gross formation of fixed capital, to R$ 113.8 billion.

The balance of goods and services had deficit of R$ 4.1 billion; and the stocks variation was R$ 22.3 billion negative.

The investment rate in the first quarter of 2009 was 16.6% of the GDP, below that of the same period in the previous year (18.4%). This decrease was mainly affected by the reduction of volume of gross formation of fixed capital in the quarter (-14.0%). Gross savings reached 11.1% of GDP, the lowest rate in the series which started in 2000. 

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¹The series are seasonally adjusted in a direct way, that is, they are individually adjusted.

²According to the May edition of LSPA (Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production)