The national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds is expected to reach 135.0 million metric tons in 2009, 7.5% less than in 2008 (146.0 million metric tons¹). This estimate is presented in the May edition of the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA). The harvested area of 47.2 million hectares decreased, in absolute terms, both in relation to both 2008 and the previous month (April), of 22,392 and 46,778 hectares, respectively.

The three main crops: soybeans, corn and rice, which account for 81.7% of the planted area, have changed by +2.1%, -3.7% and +1.9%, respectively, compared to the previous year. As for the production of these three items, only rice had positive change (+5.8%). Considering soybeans and corn production, there is estimated decrease of 4.5% and 13.8%, respectively.

The highlight is the decrease of the corn harvested area (3.7%), which may be a consequence of the low prices charged in the planting period and of the stocks existing on 12/31/2008. This figure was 118.2% higher than that relative to stocks in the end of 2007, according to the result of the Survey of Stocks – which pointed to decrease of the 0.4% of existing active establishments in relation to the first semester of 2008.

The volume expected for 2009 had the following distribution by area: South Region, 54.0 million metric tons (-11.9%); Central West, 48.0 million metric tons (-5.4%); Southeast, 16.9 million metric tons (-4.2%); Northeast, 12.3 million metric tons (-1.3%) and North, 3.7 million metric tons (-1.5%). In the picture below, it can be observed that the state of Mato Grosso has surpassed Paraná by 0.7%, keeping the position as the main national grain producer.

Lower estimate for six products  

In the May edition of LSPA, the highlights are changes in the estimate, compared to April, of seed cotton (-5.8%), oats in grain (+11.1%), sugarcane (+2.8%), barley in grain (-9.1%), total beans in grain (-4.8%), total corn in grain (-0.7%), soybeans in grain (-0.7%), wheat in grain (+0.1%) and triticale in grain (-4.9%).

Herbaceous seed cotton

The fifth estimate for 2009 indicates production of 3.0 million metric tons (-5.8%). The decrease reflects mainly the reevaluation of data relative to the Northeast Region, where the excess of rain has caused reduction in area and in average yield – Bahia, for instance, the main national producer, faced decrease of 15.0%in the expected production.  

Sugarcane

The estimated production is 690.4 million metric tons (+2.8%), with increase of the area to be harvested (+1.8%). The increase of crops shows the interest in ethanol and sugar (the most attractive item at the moment, due to the lower supply in the foreign market).

Total beans (in grain)

Considering the three harvests, the expected national production is 3,639,625 metric tons distributed as follows: 1,756,090 metric tons for 1^st harvest (48.2%), 1,521,676 for 2^nd harvest (41.8%) and 361,859 for 3^rd harvest (10.0%). Considering the data in April (-4.8%), the changes by harvest are: -8.9%, 1.2% and -7.2%. The production decrease in the 1^st harvest clearly began in the Northeast Region, through significant reduction in Piauí (38.0%), Ceará (38.1%) and Bahia (15.0%). In the 2^nd harvest, the little increment to production is a consequence of reevaluation in most of the producing states in the Northeast, especially Bahia, the second main producer (+18.1%). The negative change of 7.2% in the third harvest must be analyzed with care, since in important producing centers the planting period can go up to July/August.

Total corn (in grain) 

Production is expected to be 50.9 million metric tons in both harvests. The 1^st harvest of corn may reach 33.5 million tons (-2.1% compared to the previous estimate). The participation in the national production, in the four main producing Major Regions is: South (40.9%), Southeast (29.1%), Central West (13.3%) and Northeast (13.1%). The South region, the main national producer, faces production decrease of 3.0%, due to the reevaluation of average income in Rio Grande do Sul (-4.4%) and in Santa Catarina (-7.3%). The decrease damaged late crops, mainly. These two states also present reduction of harvested area (-2.4% and -0.7%, respectively). In Paraná, which accounted for 18.8% of the national production, the area to be harvested increased 1.3%. In terms of 2^nd harvest corn, the estimate of 17.4 million metric tons is 2.2% above the previous one, mainly due to Mato Grosso, the main producer (36.5% of the national producer). In this state, the estimate increased 11.7%.

Soybeans in grain

The main summer crop presents decrease according to the production estimate, by 0.7%, resulting in 57.2 million metric tons. The slight decrease is due to reevaluations resulting from the advanced phase of harvesting, when yield is better measured. The excess of rainfall in the Northeast Region has also damaged crops.

Concerning winter crops concentrated in the South of the country, there has been increase in the production of: oats (11.1%) and wheat (0.1%) and decreases in barley (9.1%) and triticale (4.9%). The expected production of 5.7 million metric tons of wheat is only 4,000 t higher than the amount reported in April. Crops are not completely planted yet, and increase of planted area may occur. In Rio Grande do Sul, even considering the decrease of planted area by 11.6%, average yield of 2,100 kg/ha, at the same level as in 2008, is expected.

Estimate compared to harvest in 2008 is lower for 15 items

Among the twenty-five items selected, 15 had negative change in the production estimate in relation to 2008: herbaceous seed cotton (24.3%), 1sts harvest peanuts in husk (6.1%), 1st harvest potatoes (7.1%), 2nd harvest potatoes (9.4%), 3rd harvest potatoes (1.3%), coffee in grain (13.8%), barley in grain (2.1%), 3^rd harvest beans in grain (13.6%), castor beans in segment (19.4%), 1^st harvest corn in grain (16.2%), 2^nd harvest corn in grain (8.7%), soybeans in grain (4.5%), sorghum in grain (10.9%), wheat inn grain (2.9%) and triticale in grain (8.0%). The ten products with positive change are: 2nd harvest peanuts in husk (14.2%), rice in husk (5.8%), oats in grain (12.2%), cacao nuts (1.3%),sugarcane(6.4%), onions (8.0%), 1^st harvest beans in grain (7.0%), 2^nd harvest beans in grain (8.7%), oranges (0.7%) and cassava (3.6%).

The harvest of the main temporary summer crops, especially soybeans, corn and rice is almost over. In coming surveys, there will be the monitoring of other summer crops and of the development of second and third harvests of some products, besides winter crops, which, due to the agricultural calendar, have most of their estimates base don projections.

The national production of sugarcane may reach 690,352,131 metric tons and increase 6.4% compared to the previous year. This increase is mainly due to the expansion of harvested area by 5.6%. The expansion of sugarcane plantations has been more significant in the last five years. With the reduction of oil prices and the international crisis, the alcohol-sugar industry was affected. The lack of financial resources led to the postponement of the agenda of several projects, and the halting of others, which ended up reducing the advance of sugarcane plantations. In 2009, the total planted area is 9,671,546 hectares, increase of 2.7% in relation to 2008.

Storage network of Brazil held 8,941 establishments  

The storage network of agricultural products working in the second semester of  2008 faced decrease of 0.4% in the number of active establishments, compared to the previous semester, resulting in a total of  8 941 active establishments. The result is shown in the Survey of stocks, according to which 43.1% of this figure was located in the South Region, 23.1% in the Southeast Region; 22.1% in the Central West Region, 8.33% in the Northeast Region and 3.4% in the North Region.

The useful capacity of conventional and inflatable warehouses amounted to 78,393,222 cubic meters, and a little more than 70.0% of this volume was concentrated in the Southeast and South Regions. Bulk warehouses totaled 52,898,658 metric tons of useful capacity, being the highlights the Regions of Central West (49.4% of the total) and South Region (34.1%). The useful capacity of grain silos was 43,701,611 metric tons, being 54.9% relative to the South Region, 26.5% to the Central West and 13.5% to the Southeast Regions.

The major figures for stocks registered on December 31, 2008 were those of corn in grain (8,768,606 t), wheat in grain (5,259,534 t), soybeans in grain (3,463,087 t), rice in husk (2,122,259 t) and coffee in grain (1,015,400 t).

When compared to stocks of the main products existing on December 31, 2007, the stocks of corn, wheat, coffee and soybeans had positive changes of 118.2%, 46.9%, 12.9% and 2.0%, respectively, whereas the stocks of rice in husk decreased by 7.3%.

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¹ Due to the needs of users of crop data, surveys relative to Cereal, legumes and oilseeds have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency of the Ministry of Agriculture (Conab), a subdivision of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA) as a sequence to a process of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops, which started in October 2007.