Both rates are compared to February, in the seasonally adjusted series. In comparison with results in March 2008, both volume and nominal revenue of sales increased, by 1.8% and 7.8%, respectively. In the first quarter, these indicators increased by 3.8% and 9.9%. In the last twelve months, volume and revenue accumulated increase of 7.2% and 13.5%. The result points to deceleration of the rhythm of sales increase, after rate growth above 1% in the first two months of 2009.

In March, eight of the ten activities surveyed had positive results for seasonally adjusted volume of sales: Vehicles and motorcycles, parts and pieces (3.9%); Construction material (3.0%); Textiles, apparel and footwear (1.9%); Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery articles (1.9%); Pharmaceutical, medical, orthopedic and perfumery articles and cosmetics (1.4%); Office, computer and communication material and equipment (1.4%); Other articles of personal and domestic use (1.1%) and Fuels and lubricants, with 0.9%. The activity Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco did not present any change, whereas Furniture and household appliances had negative rate of -2.2%. 

Compared to March 2008 (series without adjustment), there was increase of volume of sales in six of the eight activities surveyed: Pharmaceutical, medical, orthopedic and perfumery articles and cosmetics (15.2%); Other articles of personal and domestic use (5.0%); Fuels and lubricants (4.2%); Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco (0.7%); Office, computer and communication material and equipment (18.0%); and Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery articles (10.5%). Negative results occurred in the following activities: Furniture and household appliances (-0.9%) and Textiles, apparel and footwear (-8.2%).

RESULTS BY SUBSECTOR

The activity Pharmaceutical, medical, orthopedic and perfumery articles, with major participation in the overall retail trade rate and contributing with 48% to it, presented increase of 15.2% compared to March 2008 and had accumulated rates of 12.1% in the first quarter and of 13.1% in the last 12 months. The increase of volume of salaries and the need of medicine consumption are the main factors accounting for the positive performance of this subsector.  

The activity Other articles of personal and domestic use, with the second main contribution to the retail trade rate, changed by 5.0% in volume of sales in relation to March 2008, accounting for 24% of the overall rate.  Encompassing several retail trade segments, such as, for example, department stores, jewelry shops, sporting goods stores, toy stores, etc, this activity has been positively influenced by the continuous rise of volume of salaries. The index accumulated in the year was about 6.7% and the index accumulated in the last 12 months changed by 11.0%.

Fuels and lubricants, with 4.2% of change in volume of sales in the March 2009/March 2008 comparison, accounted for the third major contribution to the overall retail trade rate. In terms of performance accumulated in the year, the change rate reached 3.0%, and in the last 12 months, 8.7%. This behavior can be seen as resulting from the stability of food prices, together with the increase of the fleet of automotive vehicles.

The subsector Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverage and tobacco, even with a result below average – change of 0.7% in volume of sales over the same month in the previous year, accounted for the fourth biggest contribution to the rate (20.0%). Considering results accumulated in the year and in the last 12 months, the activity increased by 4.3% and 4.5%, respectively. This performance, significantly below that of previous months, is partially due to the calendar effect, once Easter’s in 2008 occurred in March, and this year in April, changing the basis for comparison of the March 2009/March 2008 indicator. 

In the subsector Office, computer and communication material and equipment, which accounted for the fifth major contribution to the formation of the overall rate, volume of sales increased in March, by 18.0%;  compared to the same month in the previous year, by 15.0% and compared to the last 12 months, by 29.7%. It is the activity with the highest level of increase this month. Among the factors accounting for this performance, the highlight is the reduction of prices in this subsector and the growing importance that computer and communication products have gained on the consumption habits of families.

The activity Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery articles, with increase of 10.5%, was responsible for the sixth biggest contribution to the retail trade result. The volume of sales accumulated in the semester changed by 12.3% and in the last 12 months, the rate was 11.4%. These figures resulted from the increase of real income and from the current diversity of products in this subsector, such as, for example, sales of computer items, besides entertainment (CDs and DVDs).

With decrease of –8.2% in relation to March 2008, the subsector Textiles, apparel and footwear accounted for the main negative contribution to the overall result of retail trade. This situation can be seen as a consequence of the rise of product prices, resulting not only from currency change but also from, the launching of the fall-winter collection. Changes of -6.6% and 1.0% were accumulated by the activity in the year and in the last 12 months, respectively.

The activity Furniture and household appliances, with decrease of -0.9% in volume of sales compared to March last year, accounted for the second main negative contribution to the performance of Retail Trade. It results in part from the current restraints to credit in the Brazilian economy. The indexes accumulated in the year and in the last 12 months were, respectively, 1.3% and 11.2%.

Extended retail trade (Retail trade and the activities of Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces and Construction material) increased in relation to the previous month from 2.0% for volume of sales and 3.0% for nominal revenue of sales, both rates with seasonal adjustment. Compared to the same month in the previous year (without seasonal adjustment), the changes were 6.5% for volume of sales and 9.0% for nominal revenue. Considering the index accumulated in the last 12 months, the subsector had increase rates of 3.7% and 7.4% for volume of sales and of 6.6% and 12.1% for nominal revenue of sales, respectively.

The volume of sales of the activity Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces had increase of 7.1% in relation to March 2008, accumulating changes of 5.9% and 8.4%, respectively. Restraints to credit, having as an example the reduction of financing prices, on the one hand, and the reduction of taxes charged by the government (IPI), on the other, have been the main factors accounting for the current dynamics of this market.

As for Construction material, changes were -4.1% in relation to March 2008, -9.8% accumulated in the year and 3.0% in the last 12 months. This performance also results from restraints to credit, as well as from consumer expectations relative to the maintenance of employment.

RESULTS BY AREA

Among the 27 Federative Units, eight had negative results in the March 2009/March 2008 comparison: Espírito Santo (-7.8%); Federal District (-4.6%); Acre (-2.5%) and Paraná, with –1.0%. The highlights in terms of positive changes were Roraima (22.6%); Rondônia (12.4%); Ceará (12.0%); Sergipe (8.3%) and Piauí (8.0%). As for participation in the formation of the Retail Trade rate, the highlights were São Paulo (2.3%); Rio de Janeiro (4.1%); Ceará (12.0%); Minas Gerais (1.5%) and Santa Catarina, with 2.6%.

In Extended Retail Trade, the highest volume of sales rates occurred in Roraima (22.8%); Tocantins (20.1%); Sergipe (17.2%); Piauí (15.3%) and Ceará (14.6%). In terms of impact on the overall result of the sector, the highlights were the states of São Paulo (6.9%); Rio de Janeiro (6.8%); Minas Gerais (8.1%); Rio Grande do Sul (5.0%) and Ceará (14.6%).

Also by Federative Unit, the seasonally adjusted results for volume of sales point to nine states with negative changes, in the month/previous month comparison. The highlights are: Maranhão (-6.7%); Acre (-3.0%); Espírito Santo (-1.4%); Mato Grosso (-1.4%) and Pará (-1.2%). Major hikes came from: Roraima (3.7%); Rondônia (3.3%); Ceará (3.1%); Goiás (2.5%) and Sergipe (2.0%).

ANALYSIS BY QUARTER

The change of 3.8% in Retail Trade in the first quarter of year 2009, compared to the same period in 2008, was below not only the change in the last quarter of the previous year (6.0%), bout also of all the period which started in January 2004. In this period, June 2005 was the exception, with change of 3.8% as well.

Comparing the results of retail trade in the last few quarters, it is possible to observe reduction of rates in the following activities: Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco, from 5.4% to 4.3%; Furniture and household appliances (from 7.7% to 1.3%); Textiles, apparel and footwear (from –5.4% to –6.6%); Pharmaceutical, medical, orthopedic and perfumery articles (from 13.9% to 12.1%); Fuels and lubricants (from 7.5% to 3.0%) and  Office, computer and communication material and equipment (from 32.9% to 15.0%). The subsectors with better indicators were: Other articles of personal and domestic use, from 6.5% to 6.7%, and Books, newspaper, magazines and stationery articles (from 12.0% to 12.3%).

However, in terms of Extended Retail Trade, the 3.7% of change in the first quarter surpassed the 0.3% relative to the fourth quarter in year 2007. In this aggregate, besides the activities described above, there is also the result for Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces, which changed from 10.8% to 5.9%, and Construction material, with reduced increase (from –1.9% to –9.8%.