The fourth estimate for the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds (grains) for 2009 points to production of about 136.0 million tons, 6.8% below that of 2008 , 146.0 million metric tons¹, according to IBGE’s Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA). The area to be harvested (47.3 million hectares presents, comparatively, in absolute figures, increases of 125,49 hectares in the area harvested last year and 21,234 hectares in the area harvested in the previous month. The three main crops, soybeans, corn and rice, which account for 81.5% of the planted area, changed, compared to last year by +1.7%,-3.6% and +2.6%, respectively. In terms of production of these three items, only rice had positive change (6.2%). For soybeans and corn, decline of production is expected, by 3.9% and 13.2%, respectively.

Among the Major Regions, the volume of cereal, legumes and oilseeds expected for 2009, in relation to the previous harvest, is thus distributed: South Region, 54.6 million metric tons (-11.0%); Central West, 47.8 million metric tons (-5.9%); Southeast, 16.8 million metric tons (-4.3%); Northeast, 13.0 million metric tons (4.4%); and North, 3.8 million metric tons (1.0%). The picture below shows that Mato Grosso has surpassed Paraná (by 0.3%), keeping its position as major national grain producer.  

Production of four items is expected to increase compared to March figures

In the April edition of LSPA, compared to results in March , the highlights are the production estimates of six products: rice in husk (+1.4%), coffee in grain (+0.8%), total beans in grain (+0.6%), total corn in grain (-0.7%), soybeans in grain (-1.5%) and wheat in grain (+12.2%).

For rice, the expected production is 12.9 million tons, with increase of 1.4% compared to the March result. This increase is a consequence of reevaluation in the average yield in all the areas, except in the Southeast. The main changes which occurred in production and which contributed to this result were observed in Rio Grande do Sul (130.360 t), Mato Grosso do Sul (26.681 t) and Maranhão (11.297 t).

The estimated national coffee harvest for 2009 is 2,411,981 t or 40.2 million 60 kg- sacks, versus 2,392,975 t or 39.8 million sacks in the March survey (+0.8%). The total area planted with this crop is 2,402,930 ha, 0.1% below the figures in the previous month. The area to be harvested also presents slight decrease (0.4%). The estimated average yield is 1,120 kg (18.7sacks/ha), due to the excellent climate conditions observed during the fruit development period, which resulted in increase of 1.2% in relation to the average yield of March. This has occurred although this year the coffee productivity cycle is at a lower output phase.  

The estimated national output of beans, considering its three harvests, is 3,821,157 metric tons, 0.6% above the figure of last month. In terms of the first harvest of this crop, production remained almost unchanged, with reduction of only 764 t, opposite to the 2nd harvest, which registered production increase of 1.5% representing increment, in absolute terms, of 22,494 t. This positive change reflects the increases observed in Bahia (11.1%) due to the readjustment of average yield (19.6%) and in Goiás (53.5%), as a result of reevaluation of this area (+35.8%) and of average yield (+13.1%).

According to the April survey, the expected national production of grain corn in 2009, for both harvests, is 51.3 million tons, with negative increase of 0.7% over March. In relation to 1^st harvest corn, production is expected to reach 34.2 million metric tons (-1.0%).

The South Region, the main producer, faced reduction of 2.3% in production due to the reevaluation of average yield in crops in Rio Grande Do Sul, which changed from 3,475 kg/ha to 3,200 kg/ha due to the dry period affecting crops initiated with some delay. Paraná, on the other hand, had increment of 1.1% in production due to readjustment of 1.4% in the yield of crops. The expected production for 2^nd harvest corn is 17.0 million metric tons, remaining practically unchanged, with reduction of 6,120 metric tons in relation to March.

The expected output of soybeans is 57.6 metric tons, 1.5% less than in March. This decrease is a consequence, mainly, of the reevaluation of average yield in crops in the South Region, which changed from 2,386 kg/ha to 2,239 kg/ha, clearly due to the dry period in the months of November and December 2008 and also April 2009. Changes in this variable occurred in Paraná (-4.4%), Santa Catarina (-2.5%) and Rio Grande do Sul (-8.8%).

For wheat, in 2009, the expected production is 5.7 million metric tons, 12.2% more than in March. It is important to mention that this evaluation is preliminary and must be analyzed with care, considering that only three Federative Units have informed their starting figures. On the other hand, the initial evaluation of harvest in Paraná, the major national producer, with participation of 54.2% in production, shows increase of 21.4% in relation to the previous estimate (which consider the average of previous years projected for 2009). It is possible to observe that areas directed to the planting of corn, not yet occupied due to the dry period, might be used for wheat crops.  

Production of 11 of the 25 products surveyed must increase in relation to 2008

Among the 25 products selected, 11 presented positive change in the production estimate in relation to the previous year: 2nd harvest peanuts in husk (16.8%), rice in husk (6.2%), oats in grain (1.0%), cacao nuts (1.4%), sugarcane (3.5%), onions (6.5%), barley in grain (7.7%), 1^st harvest beans in grain  (17.4%), 2^nd harvest beans in grain (7.4%), oranges (1.1%) and cassava (3.9%). With negative change are herbaceous seed cotton (19.6%) peanuts inn husk (19.6%), 1st harvest peanuts in husk (7.2%), 1st harvest potatoes (5.4%), 2nd harvest potatoes (9.8%), 3rd harvest potatoes (1.7%), coffee in grain (13.6%), 3^rd harvest beans in grain (6.9%), castor beans in bagasse (23.0%), 1^st harvest corn in grain (14.3%), 2^nd harvest corn in grain (10.6%), soybeans in grain (3.9%), sorghum in grain (12.%), wheat in grain (3.0%) and triticale in grain (3.3%).

The harvest of the main temporary summer crops, especially soybeans, corn, milk and rice, is close to the end. In coming surveys, it will be possible to monitor the final harvesting phase of summer crops and the development of second and third harvests of some products, besides winter crops.

The national output of coffee, an item which started to be harvested in April, is estimated as 2,411,981 t or 40.2 million 60-kg sack, versus 2,790,858 t or 46.5 million sacks harvested in 2008, representing decrease of 13.6%. The total area occupied with crops is 2,402,930 ha and the area to be harvested is 2,153,811 ha. The estimated national average income is 1,120 kg/ha (18.7 sacks/ha), that is, with decrease of 11.0%, a characteristic of a biennial crop in a low production cycle.

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¹ Due to the needs of users of crop data, surveys relative to Cereal, legumes and oilseeds have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency of the Ministry of Agriculture (Conab), as a sequence to a process of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops, which started in October 2007.