There was increase (0.7%) in the seasonally adjusted series. Compared to the March 2008 result, industrial activity decreased (-10.0%). The decrease accumulated in the last two quarters (-16.7%) has reached its highest level since the second quarter of 1990 (-19.8%). Eleven of the 27 industrial activities faced decline compared to February (seasonally adjusted series), with automotive vehicles as the main subsector once more, accumulating increase of 56.5% compared to December 2008.

From February to March, the seasonally adjusted indicator of industrial activity increased 0.7%, the third consecutive increase in this comparison. Compared to March 2008, there was decrease (-10.0%). The index accumulated in the last twelve months fell (-1.9%) and remained on a downward trend, as observed since September 2008.

Industrial production in Brazil closed the first quarter of 2009 with decrease (-14.7%) in relation to the same period in the previous year. Compared to the immediately previous quarter, the rate was -7.9%. The decrease accumulated in the last two quarters (-16.7%) is the highest since the second quarter of 1990 (-19.8%).

The increase of 0.7% observed for the total of industry from February to March reached eleven of the twenty-seven activities surveyed. This positive movement was led by the subsector of automotive vehicles (7.0%), which accumulated increase of 56.5% compared to December last year. It is also worth mentioning pharmaceutical industry (9.0%), other chemical products (3.5%), medical and optical instruments (20.8%) and mining and quarrying industry (2.4%).   

On the other hand, the main negative contributions came from transportation equipment (-15.2%), electric machines, appliances and material (-15.3%), machinery and equipment (-3.3%) and electronic material and communication equipment (-5.5%). In the analysis by categories of use, consumer goods had the highest rates: durable goods (1.7%) and semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (0.7%). The subsector of intermediate goods (0.3%) remained at a level close to that of the previous month, whereas the production of capital goods (- 6.3%) was the only type with decrease in this comparison for the second consecutive month, accumulating decrease of 13.0% in this period.

Quarterly moving average had changes in downward trend

With the third increase compared to the previous month, the quarterly moving average indicator was reversed, after decrease had been observed for five months and increased 1.6% between February and March. This change occurred in almost all the categories of use, and it is led by durable consumer goods (13.8%). Intermediate goods (1.0%) and semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (0.8%) had increases above the national average. On the other hand, the sector of capital goods kept its negative rate (-2.7%), accumulating decrease of -27.1% between March and October.   

Industry decreased 10.0% in relation to the same period in the previous year

In relation to March 2008, industrial production decreased (-10.0%), completing a sequence of five months with consecutive negative rates. It is worth mentioning that March 2009 had two more business days than March 2008. In this comparison, 20 of the 27 subsectors surveyed faced decrease, and the main negative impacts over the overall rate came from machinery and equipment (-27.2%), automotive vehicles (-18.5%), metallurgy (-29.2%), electronic material and communication equipment (-38.9%). In these activities, the items which contributed most significantly were, respectively: carriers/transporters and elevators/ transporters for goods; car pieces and axes/ and semi-axes; steel ingots, blocks and billets and steel laminated items; and mobile telephones and television sets.

Among the categories of use, the subsector of capital goods had the most negative rate (-23.0%), affected by the decrease of production of capital goods for mixed use (-24.1%), for industrial use (-29.8%), for electricity (-51.8%) and construction (-68.9%). In terms of durable consumer goods (-13.4%) the most significant negative contributions came from the items mobile telephones (-40.8%) and household appliances (-14.5%). It is worth mentioning that the production of automobiles remained on a downward trend (-3.2%), but at a lower rhythm than in previous months (-29.6% in January and – 19.6% in February).

The performance of the subsector intermediate goods (-13.3%) was affected, mainly, by the products associated to the activities of metallurgy (-29.3%), automotive vehicles (-34.9%), mining and quarrying industry (-10.5%) and other chemical products (-9.6%). The subsector of semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods 0 the only one with a positive rate – grew 2.9%, after four months with falling rates. This result was observed in all the subsectors, except semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (-13.4%). In the group elaborated food products and beverages for domestic consumption (5.8%), the highlights were the items beer, draft beer and soft drinks, whereas the subsector of other non-durable goods (4.6%) was stimulated by the items vaccines for veterinary use and medicines.

On a quarterly basis, there was significant reduction of rhythm of increase in industrial activity from the last quarter last year (-6.3%) to the first quarter of 2009 (-14.7%), both comparisons versus the same period. This was also observed in other subsectors, reaching 22 of the 27 subsectors surveyed. The main negative contributions came from machinery and equipment, which changed from -6.6% to -28.3%, metallurgy (from -9.7% to -30.8%) and automotive vehicles (from -18.9%  to -27.2%). All the categories of use also accompanied the loss of rhythm between these two quarters, being the highlight the subsector of capital goods, which changed from a positive rate of 2.5% in the period October-December to decrease of 20.8% in the following quarter, interrupting a sequence of 22 quarters with positive rates.

Industrial activity decreased 14.7% compared to the same quarter in 2008

The decrease (-14.7%) in the industrial production in the first quarter, in relation to the same period in the previous year, reached 24 of the 27 subsectors surveyed. The subsector of automotive vehicles (-27.2%) remained as the leader in terms of impact on the overall index, and the highlight, in this case, was production of cars and car pieces. Other relative negative contributions came from machinery and equipment (-28.3%), metallurgy (-30.8%) and other chemical products (-21.1%).

On the other hand, the three subsectors which had increase of production in this period were: other transportation equipment (26.2%), pharmaceutical industry (13.7%) and beverages (5.6%). In the analysis by categories of use, the indicator accumulated in the first quarter showed significant decrease in terms of durable consumer goods (-22.5¨%), capital goods (-20.8%) and intermediate goods (-18.1%), whereas semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (-3.0%) decreased in a more significant way.

Compared to the immediately previous quarter, industry declined 6.3%

The index of the first three months of 2009 compared to the immediately previous quarter (seasonally adjusted series) decreased (-7.9%) for the second consecutive quarter, accumulating decrease of 16.7% in the two quarters. Despite the reduction of the decline faced, the industrial sector is once again operating at a level very close to that in the second quarter of 2004. Among the categories of use, durable consumer goods was the only one with change from a negative to a positive result, after the fourth quarter of 2008 (-24.8%). This category was mainly benefited by the recovery of domestic sales of cars. The subsector of capital goods led to more significant decrease, with -19.3% in the quarter January-March, compared to the -9.4% of the previous period, and reflecting the overall decrease which occurred in its subsectors.

After three months with slight monthly increase to the production level, with accumulation of 4.8% between December and March, there was inversion in the tendency of the quarterly moving average, which increased 1.6% in March, compared to the previous month, after accumulated decrease of 18.0% in the last five months.