In January 2009, the industrial production increased by 2.3% compared to December 2008, in the series with seasonal adjustment, stopping a sequence of three negative results.  However, the indexes show an increase of the trend of decrease in the comparisons with longer periods.  In the comparison with January 2008, the decrease was of 17.2%, recording the third consecutive fall in this comparison.  The index accumulated in the last twelve months maintained a downward trend and reached in this month of January the rate of 1.0%, its lowest result since February 2004 (0.2%).

The increase observed in the industrial production, between December and January, was supported by the expansion in 15 among 27 surveyed activities and reached three among four categories of use.   The most significant performance for the overall result was the one of automotive vehicles, which had an expansion of 40.8% and reflected part of the partial end of collective vacations granted by the sector in the previous months. Also should be highlighted the results of electronic material and communication equipment (28.4%), rubber and plastic (13.6%), textiles (10.3%) and food products (1.6%).  All these five segments recorded a considerable decrease in December: -40.8%, -39.0%, -20.3%, -11.9% and -4.3%, respectively.  Among the industries which reduced the production, from December to January, stood out: electric machines, equipment and material (-9.5%), petroleum refining and alcohol production (-3.6%) and basic metallurgy (-4.7%).

Also in the comparison with the previous month, regarding the categories of use, the indexes were positive in durable consumer goods (38.6%), capital goods (8.4%) intermediate goods (0.8%), while the production of semi and non-durable consumer goods (-0.6%) registered decrease for the fourth consecutive month.  The expansion recorded in the manufacturing of consumer durable goods occurs after a decrease accumulated of 49.2% between September and December.  The same was verified in capital goods, which increased after accumulating a loss of 26.5% in three months.  In intermediate goods the increase observed broke a sequence of five negative results, representing a loss of 20.8% in the comparison December 08/ July 08.

In relation to January 2008, the industrial sector fell by 17.2%, the major decrease of the time series which began in January 1991.  This result shows the intensification of the rhythm of decrease, which in this month reached 27 activities surveyed, with the exception of other transportation equipment (39.2%). Another index confirms the major spreading out of negative results: the index of diffusion recorded decrease in 75% of the 755 products surveyed, also the lowest level of the time series of this indicator.  Among the activities, the major negative result on the overall result came from automotive vehicles (-34.5%), followed by other chemical products (-29.2%), basic metallurgy (-31.3%), machines and equipment (-24.4%) and electronic material and communication equipment (-45.9%).

Also in the comparison January 2008/ January 2009, all the categories recorded negative rates. The category of consumer durable goods (-30.9%) recorded the most significant decrease, mainly, as a consequence of the performance observed in automobiles (-29.6%), mobile telephones (-63.8%) and household appliances (-12.2%).  The production of intermediate goods (-20.4%) had a generalized decrease, with the main negative results coming from products associated to basic metallurgy (-31.3%), other chemical products (-28.9%), extractive industries (-18.4%), automotive vehicles (-40.4%) and rubber and plastic (-24.0%).  It is worth mentioning the negative result from inputs for construction with a decrease of 9.8%, lowest result since June 2003 (-10.0%).

The reduction of 13.4% in the segment of capital goods was especially influenced by machines and equipment for mixed use (-24.2%), followed by capital goods for industrial use (-26.2%) and construction (-66.1%).  Even that its performance was considerably higher than the one observed in the industrial average, the production of semi and non-durable consumer goods (-8.3%) had its most significant decrease in the monthly index since the value of -8.4% of August 2003 recording reduction in all the groups: other non-durable (-9.6%), semi-durable (-21.4%), food products and beverages for household consumption (-4.5%) and fuels (-6.2%). 

The first result for the year 2009 (-17.2%), was considerably below the index for Q4, 2008 (-6.3%), both compared to the same period of the previous year.  This trend is present in twenty-five among the twenty-seven segments surveyed and in all the categories of use.  The loss of rhythm was more intense in capital goods, which after increasing by 2.5%, in Q4, 2008, recorded decrease of 13.3% in January.  In intermediate goods the reduction changed from -9.2% to -20.4%, while in consumer durable goods it changed from a decrease of -19.4% to -30.9%.  The production of semi and non-durable consumer goods was the one that showed the lowest loss of rhythm among the two periods of comparison: from 1.2%, in Q4, 2008, to -8.3% in January of this year.

The annualized rate, calculated by the indicator accumulated in the last twelve months, decreased from December (3.1%) to January (1.0%).  Since the beginning of the process of sudden loss of rhythm, in last October, this indicator lost 5.8 percentage points.  In this same interval of time the categories of use had the following performance: consumer durable goods (from 12.8% to 0.2%), capital goods (from 20.0% to 12.0%), intermediate goods (from 5.6% to -0.8%) and semi and non-durable consumer goods (from 2.8% to 0.2%).